Sustaining change in Cambodia: Hun Manet's journey of steady reform
Sustaining change
in Cambodia:
Hun Manet's journeY
OF STEADY REFORM
WRITTEN BY JASON CHUMTONG AND SOTH CHHAYHENG
25 January 2024
In August 2023, Hun Manet's inauguration as Cambodia's new prime minister opened a new chapter in Khmer politics after two decades of rule by his father, Hun Sen. The initial months of his rule have been guided by public interest and the introduction of long-term strategies for the nation's progress to 2050, prompting reflection on the advancement of his vision for Cambodia's role in the region. The focus now turns to how he has laid the foundation for future developments.
Hun Manet has shown a steadfast commitment to strategic policies supporting this goal. Contrary to populist leaders known for dramatic policies and reforms, his approach has favoured gradual changes focused on long-term stability and effectiveness. This has been demonstrated by the strategic approaches taken within his first months in office, which include the implementation of a sound policy roadmap, a fresh take on established foreign affairs strategy, and critical decisions addressing civil reforms.
A new architect for Cambodia
Although it would be premature to speculate on Hun Manet’s legacy, the Cambodian public is already recognising his efforts. Most prominent among these is the Pentagon Strategy, which delineates a vision for 2050 by when the Kingdom of Cambodia is envisioned to have become a ‘Civilized Country’ — i.e., a “strong, vital, glorious, and prosperous nation with a high-income status”. The Strategy articulates five strategic pillars: human capital development; economic diversification and competitiveness enhancement; developing the private sector and employment; resilient, sustainable, and inclusive development; and developing the digital economy and society.
This roadmap to 2050 differs from its predecessors in two notable ways. First, it stands out as the first long-term vision for the country's future, extending over 25 years. This extended timeframe marks a strategic shift in planning for Cambodia's development. Second, the roadmap is distinct in its approach to strategic guidance, emphasising collaborative efforts that span from the national level down to grassroots communities. This strategy is designed to integrate various levels of governance and societal participation in the pursuit of national goals.
The initial months of Hun Manet’s rule have been guided by public interest and the introduction of long-term strategies for the nation's progress to 2050, prompting reflection on the advancement of his vision for Cambodia's role in the region.
In a post-pandemic world still adjusting to faltering economies and military conflicts that require prompt alignment within transregional political alliances, Hun Manet’s approach to reform reflects an understanding of contemporary global strategies and inclusive governance models — which may prove to be a prudent and innovative approach. However, it also indicates a long-term plan focused on ensuring the longevity of those recently promoted within a new system of power sharing. Therefore, international observers continue to watch Cambodia with expectations regarding domestic politics and the future of opposition parties.
Sustainable welfare and economic resilience
As Cambodia prepares to transition away from being classified as a least developed country (LDC) by 2027 to reaching upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2050, it will need robust economic policies and reforms to meet the challenges it faces. Graduating from the LDC status due to economic growth will improve Cambodia’s international standing and attract more foreign investment. This transition will offer improved trade opportunities and access to better financing, which could help enhance governance and national self-reliance. However, it would also mean losing specific LDC benefits, such as preferential market access and development aid.
Currently, two-thirds of Cambodia's exports are generated by its garment industry, which is not only the country's largest employer but also greatly depends on the advantages conferred by the LDC status. These advantages include initiatives such as the Everything But Arms (EBA) trade arrangement with the European Union and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) with the United States. Losing these duty-free access schemes for Cambodian products into the EU and US markets would potentially constitute one of the biggest challenges for Hun Manet's first legislative period as prime minister.
Hun Manet's inaugural fiscal policy attempts a transformative shift, channelling a substantial investment of USD 9 billion into the 2024 budget. A significant change from the 2023 fiscal budget that emphasised general administration, this strategic allocation prioritises the education, vocational training, and social sectors. This investment in enhancing human capital and social welfare is particularly timely as Cambodia's demography shifts, with a burgeoning young population reaching working age. It is worth noting that a substantial portion of Cambodia's working-age population consists of individuals aged 15 to 29, making up 37 per cent of this group.
This proactive approach by the government to address pressing concerns such as employment opportunities and healthcare, combined with making Cambodia a more accessible market for foreign direct investment, could prove to be crucial for enriching the country's economic landscape.
Fresh take on established foreign policy
Hun Manet also appears to be revitalising the country’s foreign policy to improve Cambodia’s ties with neighbours and enhance its presence in international organisations. He attended the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Indonesia, conducted an official state visit to China, participated in the United Nations General Assembly in New York, and visited Saudi Arabia for the ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in his first three months. He also attended the ASEAN-Japan Summit in Japan in mid-December.
At home, Hun Manet rolled out the red carpet to welcome Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Sretta Thavisin, who chose Cambodia for his first official state visit — a diplomatic gesture that did not go unnoticed by other countries in the region. As neighbours, both nations would benefit from cooperating on several issues of mutual concern including Cambodian mass immigration into Thailand, border demarcation, and water disputes in areas concerning energy resource exploration.
In contrast to his active engagement with countries in the Indo-Pacific, Hun Manet has yet to hold any official bilateral meetings with senior leaders from the United States and the European Union. However, a meeting in September 2023 with the US Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland hints at potential improvements in Cambodia-US relations. Notably, the United States reversed its decision to withhold a USD 18 million USAID assistance package to Cambodia following the July 2023 general elections, suggesting a possible shift in diplomatic ties. Over the years, relations between the two countries have faced challenges due to differences in principles and the US-China rivalry. This has been particularly evident in instances such as the situation at the Ream Naval Base, as well as concerns regarding human rights situations reported by the US embassy in Cambodia.
Overall, Hun Manet's initial steps in foreign policy seem to be careful but strategic, emphasising regional ties while keeping options open for broader international connections. Moving forward, Cambodia should aim to strategically expand partnerships by diversifying sectoral engagement with various key global actors. This approach has been gradually implemented, as evidenced by the upcoming enhancement of diplomatic relations with major economies such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil.
Moreover, rebuilding trust and increasing engagement with the European Union will be a vital step in strengthening Cambodia's policy of diversification. Achieving this will require both parties to pursue a mutual understanding of fundamental political differences. A significant move in this direction is Hun Manet's first official visit to Europe in January 2024, accepting an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron and attending the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
Navigating the legacy
Shortly after Hun Manet's inauguration, his father and former Prime Minister, Hun Sen, assessed his early performance with an insightful metaphor, referring to him as “the son of a dragon, who will not become a baby frog". This expression also aptly reflects Hun Manet’s first months as the new political head of the Kingdom. It sets high expectations, portraying Hun Manet as a potent leader poised for influential governance, while also emphasising the pressure on him and his government to enact visible and substantial reforms. Failing to meet these expectations might be perceived as a departure from the legacy of Cambodia's past. Achieving them would signify considerable success. However, this success raises subtle yet profound questions about the dynamics of political leadership in Cambodia. It invites contemplation on whether the nation will witness a new era of diverse leadership or find itself navigating familiar waters.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biographies
Jason Chumtong has been the Country Director of KAS Cambodia, which is based in Phnom Penh, since June 2023. Previously, he worked as a Policy Advisor for Artificial Intelligence and contributed to the supervision of the KAS Fellowship, and was also posted at the KAS office in Riga for the Regional Programme Nordic Countries. He completed his MSc at the University of Edinburgh.
Chhayheng Soth is a Program Manager at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Cambodia. He joined KAS in 2022 and covers foreign affairs and public policy. Chhayheng graduated from Thammasat University with a Bachelor in Political Science in Politics and International Relations in 2022. Image credit: Wikimedia.