In Forum: 2024 — Taiwan's presidential election

26 January 2024

Taiwan's 2024 presidential election was a crucial event, reflecting the island nation's desire for strong self-determination, economic prosperity, and social progress. With China's looming presence, the election focused on maintaining Taiwan's autonomy, addressing economic challenges, and expanding social welfare. Incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te's victory signifies the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) continued mandate, advocating for a balance between self-reliance and peaceful dialogue with China.

Here, we ask several experts on Taiwanese politics for their views on the election’s outcome, what helped Lai win, and the priorities for his administration looking ahead.

ISSUES SURROUNDING CROSS-STRAIT TIES ARE ENMESHED WITH DOMESTIC CONCERNS

BRIAN HIOE, FOUNDER, NEW BLOOM MAGAZINE (破土), AND NON-RESIDENT FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM’S TAIWAN RESEARCH HUB

Cross-strait issues have historically been the most important issue in Taiwanese presidential elections, in contrast to local elections, which are often more about domestic issues. That being said, much of the international narrative about the 2024 election has framed Taiwanese voters as tired of political parties that differ primarily in their stance toward cross-strait relations, even as growing concerns about the economy played a key role in the election outcome.

While this is not entirely wrong, it would be a mistake to frame the election as entirely about domestic issues rather than cross-strait ones; in fact, the two have always intersected. For example, during its election campaign, the Kuomintang (KMT) blamed low salaries for young Taiwanese workers on the DPP blocking the relevant provisions of trade agreements with China. In turn, the DPP claimed that the KMT’s economic policies calling for a return to engagement with China would hurt Taiwan’s interests given international trends toward decoupling from China.

Certainly, Taiwanese politics has its internal dynamic, which is not reducible to the single dimension of cross-strait policy. But the relationship between cross-strait issues and domestic issues has always been intersectional in Taiwan and this was on display in this month’s presidential election. The DPP has won a tenuous victory because of its fraught position in promising to maintain the cross-strait status quo while also promising change in domestic policy to improve the economic outlook at a time of low salaries and unaffordable housing.

ISSUES OTHER THAN CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS ALSO MATTER

DR. SHAN-JAN SARAH LIU, SENIOR LECTURER, SCHOOL OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH

The 2024 Taiwan presidential election is a beacon for democracy in the wider East Asian region. Its impact extends beyond Taiwan's borders, inspiring discussions about the compatibility of democracy with Asian values. Particularly as neighbouring countries observe a successful democratic exercise in Taiwan, the election presents an alternative model that confronts authoritarian power.

The election of Lai Ching-te indicates the voters’ approval of President Tsai Ying-wen, and the president-elect is likely to continue the path set out by the outgoing president. Lai is likely to take a pragmatic approach to maintaining the status quo in cross-strait relations. He will continue to seek support from and establish partnerships with other democracies, as well as aim to increase collaboration with countries such as Japan, India, and the European Union. However, Lai will still face challenges, particularly heightened tensions with China and the loss of some international recognition as indicated by Nauru cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

Domestically Taiwanese voters are concerned with economic and social issues, such as housing prices, inflation, long-term aging care, etc. Lai will need to address these local needs but may find doing so difficult since his political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will not have a majority in the legislature.

Lai was elected largely due to the strong baseline supporters of the DPP; young voters switched their support from the DPP to the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Thus, looking ahead to four years from now, Lai and the DPP will need to ensure that young voters feel that their needs, primarily centred on local issues rather than cross-strait relations, are addressed. Moreover, none of the presidential candidates in this election focused much on issues faced by marginalised communities, such as the indigenous, women, and new residents (migrants) in Taiwan. Lai will also need to prioritise the concerns of these minorities to create an inclusive and just society.

SMALL HOPE FOR ADDRESSING LABOUR AND HOUSING ISSUES

ROY NGERNG, FREELANCE JOURNALIST, AND LABOUR AND SOCIAL ACTIVIST

This election saw more attention focused on dissatisfaction with domestic issues among the youth, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) was the most adept at using youth grievances with low wages and high housing prices to win votes — pre-election polls suggest half of the youth electorate voted for TPP’s presidential candidate Ko Wen-je. Votes for incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the last election went to Ko. This is not surprising as youth and moderate voters prioritised economic and income inequality issues over cross-straits issues, which supporters of the two traditional major parties — Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) — are more concerned about.

Even so, there were no drastic shifts in the policy proposals by the various parties to tackle Taiwan’s poor labour and work conditions. Only the KMT’s presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih proposed raising the minimum wage by 20 per cent to NTD 33,000 a month — a figure still far below the amount needed to ensure a basic standard of living. Ko Wen-je and DPP’s candidate Lai Ching-te both refused to commit to a target. Hou proposed increasing paid holidays by two days and Ko proposed raising maternity leave from eight to 10 weeks, but both measures are inadequate for addressing working conditions — Taiwanese workers face the longest work hours among advanced countries with among the fewest paid holidays. Hou and Ko also supported lowering the threshold for labour unionisation; Lai did not. No candidate offered clear policies to bring down housing prices to affordable levels — already among the most unaffordable globally.

While Lai has won the presidential election, he has also shown the least commitment to reforming Taiwan’s social policies. In his thank you speech however, he said he would study the policy proposals of the other two candidates and incorporate them into his policies if they are beneficial. His party’s legislative candidates are also undertaking sombre self-reflection to remind their leadership to take youth concerns seriously. The KMT won a marginal lead over the DPP in the legislature, but no party has a majority. The question remains whether the fact that the major donors of both parties are businesses and real estate companies poses a conflict of interest in these parties ability to reform Taiwan’s labour and housing systems.

The TPP won the most legislative seats for a small party — the highest in the last decade — and their votes in the legislature will be decisive. But without a clear ideology, it is uncertain how strongly TPP will support any push for Taiwan’s much-needed labour reforms. The silver lining is that the hung legislature could potentially result in more social welfare reforms, as notable Taiwan academic Professor Dafydd Fell noted occurred in the last hung legislature. The parties’ discordant positions on cross-strait issues might lead to the parties posturing on social welfare issues to outshine one another.

EUROPE HAS A STAKE IN PRESERVING TAIWAN'S DEMOCRATIC RESILIENCE

DR ZSUZSA ANNA FERENCZY, HEAD OF THE ASSOCIATES NETWORK AT 9DASHLINE, AND ADJUNCT ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE NATIONAL DONG HWA UNIVERSITY IN HUALIEN, TAIWAN

“If someone were to ask me what my legacy for Taiwan is, I would say that I am leaving behind a Taiwan of the world”, President Tsai Ing-wen said in her 2024 New Year address. This is the Taiwan that Lai Ching-te, the island’s newly elected president has inherited and has vowed to lead once he takes over leadership in May. In his campaign, he promised continuity to prioritise expanding the island’s international space and boost defence capabilities so that Taiwan can rely on like-minded partners as it continues to withstand mounting threats from China.

While Lai received a little over 40 per cent of the vote, his party, the DPP (currently in power) lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, which will most likely constrain its capacity to deliver on his promises. Viewed from the perspective of global peace and security, it is in the interest of Taiwan’s democratic partners to continue engaging with the island’s government and people, and support Lai’s efforts to stay committed to his ambitious agenda despite domestic challenges and external threats.

Ensuring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in Europe’s interest. It must continue upgrading its approach to Taiwan as a reliable partner, while at the same time signalling to Beijing that it will push back against its grey zone activities designed to intimidate, polarise, and punish. Both Taiwan and Europe should increase efforts to contribute to each other’s economic and democratic resilience by investing in understanding each other’s complex relations with China.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform. Image credit: Unsplash/Kuan Liao (cropped).