Strongman politics are returning to Southeast Asia
STRONGMAN POLITICS are RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST ASIA
WRITTEN BY CHRIS FITZGERALD
2 April 2024
February’s presidential election in Indonesia saw a return to strongman politics after Prabowo Subianto swept to victory. But this has not been isolated to Indonesia, with Filipinos electing populist leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr in 2022.
A strongman is a leader with an authoritarian streak who seeks to curtail democratic institutions while in power. While the typical strongman hails from a military background, others gain power as populists in democratic elections claiming to be the only leader capable of solving a country’s problems. Both types are threats to democracy and human rights.
Strongmen are not new to the region, with most Southeast Asian countries having a history of authoritarian rule, and some currently being ruled by a military or populist leader. In fact, the small island nation Timor Leste is the only country in the region ranked as democratically ‘free’ by the not-for-profit Freedom House.
Their return represents and legitimises a darker time of dictators, corruption and atrocities, which many older Indonesians and Filipinos hoped was history. It is undoubtedly a step back and suggests strongmen are now the norm, not the exception.
Indonesia and the Philippines are different. While both are flawed democracies and have bleak histories of authoritarian rulers, they equally have a proud recent history when it comes to free elections and civilian rule. In a region bereft of democracies, they have been shining lights of progress, which is now at risk due to the rise of Marcos Jr and Subianto. Like their neighbours, both countries have succumbed to populist politics and the allure of strongmen reminiscing about a golden age and promising a better future. With Indonesia and the Philippines the latest dominoes to fall, it suggests strongman politics are in Southeast Asia to stay.
Third time lucky for Indonesia’s new strongman
Indonesians went to the polls in February, electing Subianto, who won 58 per cent of the vote in a landslide victory. The victory is Subianto’s third attempt at the presidency, losing to outgoing President Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019.
The difference from his predecessor is stark. While Widodo was elected as an outsider to Indonesian politics, Subianto is firmly part of the old guard. He is a former lieutenant general and Special Forces commander and a close ally of former President Suharto. Subianto has used his military background to build a strongman image in politics, modelling himself on his former patron, Suharto. Suharto was a former general who served as president and dictator of Indonesia from 1967 to 1998. He was notorious for his brutal rule, human rights abuses, and widespread corruption. Like Suharto, Subianto has been accused of serious human rights abuses, including atrocities in East Timor and Papua, as well as the abduction and disappearance of democracy activists in 1997. He was controversially dismissed from the military after storming the presidential palace to threaten Suharto’s successor — B. J. Habibie — in 1998.
But — because of this controversy — Subianto distanced himself from his strongman persona in the lead-up to the recent election. The pivot was an attempt to deflect away from his past and to attract young voters, with young Indonesians being the country's largest voting bloc. Instead, Subianto styled himself as a “cuddly grandpa”, dancing on stage, and selecting Widodo’s 36-year-old son — Gibran — as his running mate.
Subianto also outspent all other candidates online, spending more than USD 500,000 on his social media campaign. Harnessing Indonesians’ love for social media platforms like TikTok enabled Subianto to target young voters and project an image of a loveable but strong leader. Softening his image worked, with pre-election polls suggesting that most young Indonesians voted for Subianto despite warnings by human rights groups.
Voters also rejected candidates with far better human rights records including Ganjar Pranowo — Subianto’s main opponent — who was seen as Widodo’s successor. This suggests young voters either did not see human rights as an important issue or lacked an understanding of their country’s history, falling for a revisionist campaign that brushed aside past atrocities and promised a better future.
Whatever the reason, Indonesians might be in for a rude shock. Subianto is not Widodo and does not share the same interest in human rights and democracy. As Widodo’s defence minister, he undermined the independence of institutions like the anti-corruption commission and the constitutional court. Like most strongmen, he is also emotive and erratic, which does not mean well for meaningful reform under his leadership. Subianto’s victory also signals a return to an older, more brutal Indonesia, where military strongmen ruled with impunity and innocent Indonesians lost their lives.
But the re-emergence of strongmen is not isolated to Indonesia, with Subianto’s victory having close parallels to the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.
History returns to the Philippines
Ferdinand Marcos Jr was elected as President of the Philippines in May 2022. The win was a landslide, gathering almost 40 million votes, making it the country’s first majority win in decades.
While not a military man like Subianto, Marcos Jr still fits the mould of a strongman through his populist politics and family’s dark history. The Marcos name is infamous in the Philippines due to Marcos Jr’s father Ferdinand’s brutal rule over the country as president and dictator from 1965 to 1986. The Philippines Human Rights Violations Victims Memorial Commission estimates more than 11,000 people were victims of human rights violations under Marcos Sr, while Amnesty International claims the number is well over 100,000. The family was also notorious for corruption, allegedly stealing USD 10 billion while in power. Marcos Sr was ousted in a popular uprising in 1986, known as the People Power Revolution.
Like Subianto, Marcos Jr distanced himself from his family’s dark history to win over young Filipinos. His campaign also used social media platforms such as TikTok and Facebook to circulate misinformation about his father’s regime, instead calling it a “golden age”. Marcos Jr successfully whitewashed his past to attract young Filipinos, who subsequently voted for the new president.
Filipinos also rejected other candidates with better human rights records including Marcos Jr’s main opponent — human rights lawyer Leni Robredo. Like Indonesia, this shows that young people are susceptible to populist campaigns that embrace nostalgia.
The Philippines is no stranger to strongmen, having endured five years of Duterte. But Marcos Jr presents a different threat. Unlike Duterte, he has tried to portray himself as a supporter of human rights, promising to end his predecessor’s drug war. But the war has continued under his watch, with 342 people killed during his first year in power. There have also been cases of extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances, which shows the president’s commitment to human rights is not as serious as he claimed during his campaign.
Like Subianto, Marcos Jr represents a darker time in the Philippines. His presidency both revises and legitimises his father’s brutal rule and is a further step back for human rights.
Democracy at risk
Neither Subianto nor Marcos Jr is likely to follow their idols and declare martial law or become dictators of their respective countries. Both Indonesia and the Philippines have far more robust democratic and judicial systems today but their victories will have consequences.
Both leaders exhibit a disregard for human rights and democratic institutions, whether it be attacking the judicial system or overseeing human rights abuses. In the case of Indonesia, Subianto is highly unlikely to follow through with Widodo’s human rights reforms, while Filipinos continue to die in the ongoing drug war, which Marcos Jr promised to end.
In the long term, their success is a blueprint for future strongmen. Both took advantage of strong economic conditions to promise to spend big on the economy while also vowing broad continuity with their predecessors’ policies. Widodo and Duterte finishing their terms in office aided this, allowing Marcos Jr and Subianto to link themselves with their predecessors, as seen in the involvement of Duterte’s daughter and Widodo’s son in their respective campaigns.
Young voters were also undeniably susceptible to social media campaigns and misinformation. Both leaders took advantage of the youth’s love for TikTok and Instagram to sell their policies and to spread misinformation about their pasts. Candidates with stronger human rights records simply could not compete with the finely tuned campaigns selling a misleading story of a golden past and a bright future. But the outcomes also suggest that young voters decided to prioritise their future over any concerns about past human rights violations.
Both countries have a proud recent history of democracy in a region that traditionally favoured strongmen. However, while Subianto and Marcos Jr were elected democratically, their actions undoubtedly put this progress at risk. Their return represents and legitimises a darker time of dictators, corruption and atrocities, which many older Indonesians and Filipinos hoped was history. It is undoubtedly a step back and suggests strongmen are now the norm, not the exception.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author Biography
Chris Fitzgerald is a freelance journalist. He writes on political and human rights issues in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific. His work has been published in the South China Morning Post, Asia Times and the Southeast Asia Globe. He is also Director of the Platform for Peace and Humanity's Indo-Pacific programme. Image credit: Flickr/Secretary of Defense (cropped).