9DASHLINE — Articles

The myth of the 'vassal state': China’s influence in Laos is waning

Written by Joanne Lin

Statistics have shown that although China has a significant degree of influence over Laos, it is certainly not controlling the country.

Political dealmaking will be key in Thailand’s upcoming election

Written by Napon Jatusripitak and Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

While Thai voters can influence the parties’ relative electoral performance, voters’ preferences may not be reflected in the post-election coalition configurations.

Thailand’s upcoming general election: A preview

Written by Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

The blurring of the lines between the government and the opposition means that voters may very well end up with a government that straddles Thailand’s traditional divides.

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Cambodian election in 2023: No space for the opposition

Written by Perle Petit

Hun Manet’s image as a ‘clean politician’, in combination with the relative stability of the country (when compared to regional neighbours), will most likely play in the government’s favour in terms of improving Cambodia’s relationship with the West.

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Two years after coup, Myanmar junta adapts to isolation

Written by Hunter Marston

Western aid is far away and will remain hostage to both Myanmar’s immediate neighbours, with whom they must coordinate, and broader concerns about security on the European continent, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will grip Western leaders’ attention for the foreseeable future.

ASEAN enters 2023 in a moment of crisis

Written by Hunter Marston

Some experts suggest Indonesia is likely to propose adopting a seven-vote threshold instead of requiring all ten members to agree on passing a measure. This would go a long way to making the institution more agile, responsive, and decisive.

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The ‘virtual maritime gate’ and Indonesia’s new capital

Written by Jefferson Ng

The Makassar Strait is likely to grow in prominence as Indonesia’s new capital emerges as a centre of economic activity alongside Jakarta, and defence policymakers in Indonesia will want to better control the flow of maritime traffic passing through the Strait.

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With the exclusion of Myanmar’s junta, can ASEAN remain relevant and effective in the Myanmar crisis?

Written by Joy Joy

Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people. They must listen to the voices of the Burmese people and their democratically-elected representatives while making meaningful engagements to help resolve the crisis.

Editor's Picks, Southeast Asia9DLNovember 18, 20219DASHLINE, Joy Joy, ASEAN, myanmar, coup d'etat, Myanmar Coup, Junta, Min Aung Hlaing, National Unity Government, NUG, United States, US, EU, China, Japan, COVID, COVID19, Covid-19, Thantlang Township, People’s Defence Forces, G7, G7-ASEAN, Cambodia, Prak Sokhonn, UK, United Kingdom

Shift in Philippine pivot to China hinges on next polls

Written by Frances Mangosing

The way things are going, we can expect Duterte to ramp up nationalist rhetoric over the next few months to gather voter support for his chosen successor. We have seen this game before.

South China Sea dispute: The three challenges to ASEAN’s position

Written by Kalvin Fung

ASEAN members such as Indonesia might find themselves mired in a quagmire: recognising a regime lambasted for its terrible human rights record might save ASEAN unity but could draw further condemnation from the West and international media; rejecting the junta might jeopardise regional unity and delay the long-awaited COC.

The 2016 South China Sea arbitration award: Can the past and present foretell the future?

Written by James Borton and Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Sustained domestic pressure, efforts by other littoral states to align their claims with UNCLOS, and a growing chorus of countries referencing the award in their note verbales strengthen the hands of leaders who may come out more assertively on the issue.

ASEAN centrality in trade and investment

Written by Ong Kian Ming

ASEAN must also be willing to push the envelope when it comes to economic diplomacy in a manner that would strengthen the unity of the grouping and safeguard the interests of its members.

Russia’s conduct in the South China Sea

Written by Nivedita Kapoor

In the long term, Russia has the potential to become a regional energy supplier as well as provide connectivity via the Arctic Northern Sea Route (instead of via the Straits of Malacca), which could mitigate the contradictions in the SCS.

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Realising the Great Change: Beijing’s South China Sea lawfare strategy

Written by Ryan Lucas

Too often, foreign policy analysts have focused principally on the hard power component of China’s ambitions in the South China Sea. This security-centric approach, while important, risks downplaying a critical piece of China’s South China Sea strategy in the post-pandemic era.

Beijing’s ambivalence about the coup in Myanmar

Written by Murray Heibert

Beijing is unlikely to step up its role in Myanmar unless there is a sudden and massive outpouring of refugees across the border into China or opponents of the junta begin threatening Chinese infrastructure in the country.

Whitsun Reef: The next escalation point?

Written by Jay L Batongbacal

Manila must resume its original policy of standing by international law, reinforce its alliance with the US and strategic partnerships with middle powers like Japan and Australia, and deepen friendships with other external parties such as the UK and the EU.

Southeast Asia's naval build up in the post-COVID era: A near-term assessment

Written by Collin Koh

For Southeast Asian countries that also operate coastguards, now is the time to review the need for navies to relinquish certain tasks that coastguards might perform more effectively. This is especially the case where capacity (quantity) is more critical than having the most hi-tech warships bristling with weapons performing constabulary missions that simply require a presence.

Southeast Asia9DLFebruary 9, 2021China, Philippines, Thailand, Royal Thai Navy, Covid, Covid-19, Coast guard, South China Sea, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, North Korea, India, Malaysia

Environmental issues in the South China Sea call for open data and science

Written by James Borton

Despite significant oceanographic advances and a continuous flow of ocean data, marine research has failed to ameliorate the competing South China Sea claims nor navigate the sustainable stewardship of ocean resources.