Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps

Written by Hunter Marston

Identifying possible mediators and key stakeholders is critical at this particular juncture, and given the present circumstances we need not let perfect be the enemy of good.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 19, 20249dashline, Hunter Marston, Facing Battlefield Losses, Myanmar’s Junta May Look to ASEAN for Offramps, sit-tat, Myanmar Junta, myanmar military, Burmese, Operation 1027, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, State Administrative Council’s (SAC), Beijing has grown frustrated, Ukraine, Laos chairmanship of ASEAN, India, China, ndonesia’s ‘quiet diplomacy', Arakan Army (AA), Japanese special envoy Yohei Sasakawa, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the SAC, National Unity Government, Three Brotherhood Alliance, Sagaing, Shan, Chin, Chin state, shan state, sagaing state, Mandalay, Naypyidaw, ASEAN’s 2021 Five Point Consensus, 5PC, Jakarta, Burmese society, “troika” model, Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines, Myanmar’s generals, ASEAN-brokered solution, people of Myanmar

In Forum: 2024 — The future of ASEAN

Great power politics in the Indo-Pacific has put the future and centrality of ASEAN under some doubt. How can ASEAN negotiate greater space for itself amid the intensifying great power rivalry?

9DASHLINE asks a select group of experts whether ASEAN can withstand these internal and external pressures.

Southeast Asia, Editor's Picks9DLFebruary 16, 20249dashline, DR. PRASHANTH PARAMESWARAN, GORDON CONOCHIE, NAZIA HUSSAIN, Hunter Marston, ASEAN, great power politics, Myanmar Coup, South China Sea, Cambodia, China, Philippine, In Forum: 2024 — The future of ASEAN

Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia

Written by Dr Denis Suarsana

A quick and successful conclusion of trade negotiations with Indonesia would not only significantly strengthen Europe's role in the region but would also be an important step in the European strategy of de-risking from China.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 15, 20249DASHLINE, Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia, Denis Suarsana, Indonesia, voters, elections, presidential elections, Joko Widodo, Jokowi, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, autocratic Suharto regime, Suharto, Europe, EU, trade, climate, Non-Aligned Movement, foreign policy, Bebas dan Aktif, mediator, G20 presidency, G20, Russian invasion of Ukraine, ASEAN chairmanship, ASEAN, conflict in Myanmar, Myanmar, Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN in the South China Sea, Code of Conduct, ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, south china sea, neutral, China, United States, economic development, Ganjar Pranowo, Central Java Province, Anies Baswedan, Jakarta, US-China rivalry, great power rivalry, third way, trading partner, State of Southeast Asia Report, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, WTO, nickel export ban, palm oil, trade agreement, Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU CEPA), European Union, Indonesian elite, EU-ASEAN Summit, coercion, democracy, shopping, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), free trade zone, free trade, moral arrogance, moral, morality, equal partnerships, geopolitics, strategy of de-risking, de-risking, copper, nickel ore, tin, bauxite, China+1, China+1 efforts, investment, Global Gateway, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, EU’s Global Gateway, Europe’s Global Gateway, OECD, hedging, conditionality, hardliner

Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight

Written by Aniello Iannone

As Indonesia stands at this pivotal crossroads, the decisions made by its electorate will carry profound consequences not only for the nation's democratic fabric but also for the country's reputation internationally.

Power Politics9DLFebruary 12, 20249dashline, Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight, Aniello Iannone, ANIELLO IANNONE, Indonesia, Joko Widodo, Jokowi, election, economic elites, economic development, industrial development, workers' rights, 2020 Omnibus Law, ITE (Electronic Transaction) law, political elite, political dynasty, Griban Rakabuming Raka, ideological divide, Prabowo Subianto, Gerindra, Minister of Defence, opposition parties, majority in parliament, democracy, identity politics, hardline Islamic faction, Soeharto, Soeharto’s regime, voter trust, military regime, political dynasties, civil resistance, Sukarnoputri Megawati, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDI-P, Orissa Putri Hapsari, Kaesang Pangarep, PSI, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Democratic Party, democratic standards, vice-presidential candidacy, legislative reform, Anwar Usman, Islamic extremism, human rights abuses, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, PKB, Minister of Education, Jakarta, gubernatorial election, Rizieq Shihab, Muslim Defense Front, extremist Islamic movement, Saudi Wahhabi orientation, Bachtiar Nasir, Action 212 movement, Ahok, Felix Siauw, integrity pact, conservative ulama groups, Ijtima Ulama, radical Muslim constituents, moderate electorate, Ganjar Pranowo, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, PDIP, Puan Mahari, Wadas village, democratic values, political alliances, political stability, democratic trajectory, voters

The 24th EU-China Summit — High stakes, low expectations

Written by Marta Ferdebar

The contrasting perspectives showcased by the EU and China's official government sites and media concerning the summit highlight the impact of unique government priorities and underscore the need for sustained diplomatic efforts to build mutual understanding.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLFebruary 9, 2024low expectations, Marta Ferdebar, 9dashline, Ursula von der Leyen, Xi Jinping, Charles Michel, Li Qiang, trade deficit, Wang Wenbin, Russian invasion, UN security Council, Director General for European Affairs Wang Lutong, human rights, Taiwan, BRI, Global Gateway initiative, The 24th EU-China Summit — High stakes

The US and China both failed at COP28

Written by Taylah Bland

The US-China competition and efforts at cooperation epitomised by the Sunnylands Statement can both contribute to the two biggest polluters taking concrete action in global climate change mitigation and adaptation work.

Two untold obstacles to Taiwan’s democratic consolidation beyond China’s ambition

Written by Sanho Chung

Besides how the election outcomes affect cross-strait relations, perhaps what we should also look at in Taiwan’s democracy is how much dedication the Taiwanese still have to their system regardless of the difficulties.

Power Politics9DLFebruary 7, 2024Two untold obstacles to Taiwan’s democratic consolidation beyond China’s ambition, Sanho Chung, 9dashline, Taiwan, Taiwan Election 2024, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Republic of China ROC, democracy, nationalism, local autonomy, partisan polarisation, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), status quo, Cross-Strait relations, disinformation

Pakistan’s election — a primer

Written by Dr Filippo Boni

Pakistan is scheduled to hold its twelfth general election on 8 February, amid a deteriorating security situation in parts of the country, allegations of an uneven playing field against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, and with China and the United States waiting to find out who will lead the next Pakistani government.

South Asia9DLFebruary 5, 20249dashline, A primer on Pakistan’s elections, Filippo Boni, Pakistan, elections, Nawaz Sharif, Hafizabad, disqualification, general election, deteriorating security situation, uneven electoral playing field, Imran Khan, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, state secrets leak, imprisonment, military, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N, cricket bat logo, electoral candidates, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Peoples Party, PPP, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, climate change, policy position, electoral campaign, media freedom, Coalition for Free Media, Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, PFUJ, Council of Pakistan Newspapers Editors, CPNE, Tehreek Taliban Pakistan, TTP, militant groups, Islamic State Khorasan Province, ISKP, Balochistan, separatist militant groups, bilateral crisis, Iran, missile strike, Islamabad, Iran-Pakistan, Iran-Pakistan tensions, borders, US, China, Sino-Pakistani bilateral ties, BRI, CPEC, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, socio-economic development, military leadership, Afghanistan, President Biden, Shahbaz Sharif, UNGA, US-Pakistan relations, domestic security, regional security

In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?

We invite several experts to assess the prospects for stability in 2024.

Editor's Picks, Pacific9DLFebruary 2, 2024In Forum: 2024 — South China Sea at a crossroads, 9DASHLINE, south china sea, SCS, China, Philippine, Philippine navy, The Philippines, vessels, Chinese vessels, freedom of navigation, United States, trade, shipping, US-China competition, escalation, CYBER, ELINA NOOR, non-claimant states, Code of Conduct (CoC), Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations, military, international law, cross-domain, ASEAN, norms of responsible state behaviour, 2015 United Nations Group of Governmental Experts of Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, APILA SANGTAM, Beijing, Vietnam, India, Manila, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), UNCLOS, 2016 Arbitral Award, comprehensive strategic partnership, 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, grey zone, Exclusive Economic Zones, Indonesia, Malaysia, NONG HONG, geopolitical rivalry, naval, military exercises, oil and gas exploitation, COLLIN KOH, unilateral, multilateral, littorals, Second Thomas Shoal, Taiwan, PRATNASHREE BASU, Belt and Road Initiative, strategic autonomy, de-escalation, containment, Japan, rules-based order, UN, United Nations, In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy

Written by Michael Kugelman

Ultimately, like any democratic leader, Muizzu will need to walk a tightrope between foreign policy imperatives and domestic political considerations. A balancing policy abroad will also require one at home.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 1, 20249dashline, Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, India, China, Beijing, Male, pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, “India Out” movement, India Out, India’s military, corruption, Maldivians, coup, Islamist extremism, Hindu, International Yoga Day, New Delhi, hydrographic surveys, Turkey, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lakshadweep, Indian tourists, tourism, economic reliance, trade deficit, Chinese research vessel, intelligence, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, intervened militarily, democracy, development, trade agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives-India relations, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, India First, “India First” policy, cybersecurity, COVID-19 vaccines, trade deal, defence deal, UN climate summit, security cooperation, debt, Climate change, geopolitical, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, nationalism, sovereignty, independence, economic dependence, Chinese influence, hedging policy, hedging, great power competition, anti-Modi, sea lanes, EU, disinformation, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), People’s National Congress (PNC) party

In Forum: 2024 — US Strategy and the Indo-Pacific

To what extent can the US compete with China if it does not offer more economic opportunities to Indo-Pacific countries, especially due to mounting doubts about its reliability as a security guarantor in the region?

We invite several experts to assess this state of affairs.

Tusk’s Chinese crossroads: Sino-Polish engagement in the post-PiS era

Written by Matthias van Herel

Whether Beijing will find a partner in the new Polish government will heavily depend on Beijing’s capacity to reinvent the BRI, as its current incarnation is losing momentum in Europe.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20249dashline, Tusk’s Chinese crossroads: Sino-Polish engagement in the post-PiS era, Matthias van Herel, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), PiS’s illiberal ghost, Prime Minister Donald Tus, Tusk’s Civic Platform, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sino-Polish trade, belt and road initiative in Europe, The Polish success story, Huntingtonian optimism, Soviet-transformation, post-Soviet transformation, Jarosław Kaczyński’s conservative Eurosceptic PiS party, Alexei Yurchak’s ‘temporality of eternity’, Europhile society, Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość, gregor samsa, European Counci, Euphoria, Central and Eastern Europe region, China’s port in Piraeus, Greece, to the European market, BRI’s New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor (NELB), Kazakhstan, Poland’s competitively priced road transportation sector, 2011 Strategic Partnership, Łódź and Sichuan Province, Łódź’s severe economic downturn, Witold Stępień, Łódź Hanna Zdanowska (PO), Hatrans, Dell, lechów-based factory with its supplier Foxconn, Polish Consulate General in Chengdu, Sino-Polish relations, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Multimodal Technology Park, Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships, Military Property Agency, Polish minister of defence Antoni Macierewicz, Three Seas Initiative, Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), Viktor Orbán, hird Belt and Road Forum in October 2023, European Council, Sino-Polish economic ties

In Forum: 2024 — Taiwan's presidential election

Taiwan's 2024 presidential election was a crucial event, reflecting the island nation's desire for strong self-determination, economic prosperity, and social progress. With China's looming presence, the election focused on maintaining Taiwan's autonomy, addressing economic challenges, and expanding social welfare.

Sustaining change in Cambodia: Hun Manet's journey of steady reform

Written by Jason Chumtong and Soth Chhayheng

The initial months of Hun Manet’s rule have been guided by public interest and the introduction of long-term strategies for the nation's progress to 2050, prompting reflection on the advancement of his vision for Cambodia's role in the region.

Southeast Asia9DLJanuary 25, 20249dashline, Sustaining change in Cambodia: Hun Manet's journey of steady reform, Jason Chumtong, Soth Chhayheng, Cambodia, Hun Manet, Hun Sen, long-term strategies, strategic policies, stability, foreign affairs, Pentagon Strategy, Kingdom of Cambodia, human capital development, economic diversification, economic competitiveness, private sector development, resilient development, sustainable development, inclusive development, digital economy, digital society, strategic shift, strategic guidance, collaboration, transregional political alliances, contemporary global strategies, reform, inclusive governance models, power sharing, domestic politics, opposition parties, competitive elections, least developed country, LDC, economic policies, economic reform, economic growth, foreign investment, national self-reliance, preferential market access, development aid, exports, garment industry, Everything But Arms, EBA, EU, duty-free access schemes, US market, EU market, Prime Minister, Prime Minister Hun Manet, human capital, social welfare, employment opportunities, healthcare, foreign direct investment, 43rd ASEAN Summit, ASEAN, UNGA, Saudi Arabia, ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, ASEAN-Japan Summit, Sretta Thavisin, diplomatic gesture, state visits, mass immigration, water disputes, energy resource exploration, indo-pacific, Victoria Nuland, Cambodia-US relations, USAID, diplomatic ties, US-China rivalry, Ream Naval Base, Brazil, diversification, Emmanuel Macron, France, political leadership, Khmer politics, fiscal policy, bilateral meetings, World Economic Forum, inauguration

At China’s Universal Periodic Review, European states must defend human rights in Hong Kong

Written by Megan Khoo and Anouk Wear

The UPR is an opportunity to enhance what EU member states have been practising at the domestic and EU level over the past five years, and one which complements and solidifies their positions.

Faultlines, Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 23, 20249dashline, At China’s Universal Periodic Review, European states must defend human rights in Hong Kong, Megan Khoo, Anouk Wear, China, Universal Periodic Review (UPR), Palais des Nations, Geneva, United Nations, international human rights law, human rights, EU, Hong Kong, Beijing, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Albania, United Arab Emirates, Malawi, transparency, historical narrative, accountability, UN archives, enforcement, NGO, activists, human rights activists, multilateral, international law, Hong Kong Protests, Hong Kong’s human rights situation, European Parliament, export controls, elections, National Security Law, Jimmy Lai, pro-democracy, pro-democracy protests, media, press freedom, religious freedom, European Parliament Informal Hong Kong Watch Group, diaspora, Germany, France, extradition treaties, extradition, Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, condemnation, human rights violations, Hong Kong Informal Friendship Group, Bundestag, political prisoners, Olivier Cadic, André Gattolin, André Vallini, Constance Le Grip, Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), Taiwan, Vilnius, Paris, Lithuania, Tiananmen Square massacre, Tiananmen Square, extraterritoriality, Chow Hang-tung, independence of the judiciary, freedom of assembly, Hong Kongers

In Forum: 2024 — Minilaterals in the Indo-Pacific

Minilaterals have become the partnerships of choice for addressing joint problems in the Indo-Pacific and deepening cooperation beyond traditional formats.

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess whether minilaterals can make global governance more effective and whether the institutional landscape of the Indo-Pacific will become overcrowded in 2024.

The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security

Written by Wooyun Jo

The spy satellite launch reinforces the need for vigilant monitoring and surveillance to assess the capabilities and intentions of North Korea, as well as to strengthen regional defence against potential nuclear missile attacks.

East Asia9DLJanuary 17, 20249dashline, The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security, Wooyun Jo, North Korea, spy satellite, regional security, MALLIGYONG-1, South Korea, US, Japan, Korean Peninsula, Missile Technology Control Regime, satellite technology, Russia, critical technologies, heavy artillery ammunition, Moscow, Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine, technology transfer, military capabilities, spy satellite launch, inter-Korean relationship, Pyongyang, technological advancement, espionage, hostile nations, regional security dynamics, countering threats, detecting threats, long-range ballistic missile technology, United Nations, United Nations resolutions, UNSC, Vann Van Diepen, new technology, troop movements, strategic advantages, nuclear deterrence, intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, SLBMs, strategic bombers, intelligence-gathering capabilities, strategic assets, real-time intelligence, missiles technology, ballistic missile tests, security interests, regional allies, Yoon Suk-yeol, satellite launch, threat perception, nuclear tensions, space programme, missile capabilities, regional cooperation, deterrence measures, ROK-US-Japan, surveillance, security cooperation, General Security of Military Information Agreement, GSOMIA, Tokyo, ballistic missile defence drill, anti-submarine exercises, trilaterals, missile defence systems, joint military exercises, sanctions, nuclear programmes, missile programmes, economic sanctions, Seoul, Washington

Navigating the tides: Reassessing the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy

Written by Dr Gorana Grgic

Drawing upon member states’ existing strategies in the region, the EU's strategy tactfully treads a fine line — seeking greater assertiveness while preserving space for cooperation, even in its dealings with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 2024Navigating the tides: Reassessing the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy, 9Dashline, China, EU-China Summit 2023, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine war, United States, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Israel-Hamas conflict, EU-US coordination, Gorana Grgic