The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security
The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security
WRITTEN BY WOOYUN JO
17 January 2024
North Korea's successful launch of a military spy satellite named MALLIGYONG-1 on 21 November 2023 has raised concerns and sparked discussions in South Korea, the US, and Japan. The surprise satellite launch is significant for regional security, particularly around the Korean Peninsula, for several reasons.
First, the launch demonstrates North Korea's continued advancement in its missile and satellite technology, which poses a threat to neighbouring countries. Second, given the failed tests in the past, South Korean intelligence assumes that Russia has handed over critical technologies in exchange for North Korea providing heavy artillery ammunition to Moscow for its ongoing war with Ukraine.
This potential technology transfer increases concerns that North Korea's military capabilities could continue to improve. Third, the success of North Korea's spy satellite launch in November has also negatively impacted the inter-Korean relationship due to Pyongyang’s demonstration of continued technological advancement, potential espionage activities, and the possible sharing of sensitive information with other hostile nations.
All this complicates regional security dynamics and increases the need for countries in the region to enhance their capabilities for detecting and countering any potential threats. The Korean Peninsula is encountering a new layer of conflict, alarming all regional stakeholders.
Assessing the risk: the satellite's potential uses and threats
North Korea's satellite launch in November 2023 involved the use of long-range ballistic missile technology in clear violation of multiple United Nations resolutions. Vann Van Diepen, a former US government expert, explained that the North Korean spy satellite is likely “a relatively small, optical satellite that is going to have relatively low resolution”. But he added, “Even a relatively low-resolution satellite is better than not having a satellite, which is their current situation”. While the North is unlikely to receive precise intelligence about South Korea's weaponry from such a satellite, the new technology may still help spot things like troop movements in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula.
The spy satellite launch reinforces the need for vigilant monitoring and surveillance to assess the capabilities and intentions of North Korea, as well as to strengthen regional defence against potential nuclear missile attacks.
Pyongyang’s spy satellite also presents significant strategic advantages regarding nuclear deterrence against the US. Since North Korea's spy satellite can be possibly used as part of its nuclear triad ambitions — which include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers — it allows North Korea to enhance its intelligence-gathering capabilities and possibly improve its ability to strike potential strategic assets in the US mainland more precisely.
Consequently, in times of possible nuclear fighting on the Korean Peninsula or East Asia, the satellite could provide real-time intelligence and enhance North Korea's situational awareness, allowing the regime to make more informed decisions during conflicts and even threaten the US mainland with a nuclear attack.
Furthermore, the launch of the spy satellite also raises concerns about the potential transfer of technology and information to other countries or non-state actors, especially considering North Korea’s support of Hamas and the recent satellite technology transfer from Russia despite UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea prohibiting “direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer” of missile technology and further ballistic missile tests since 2006.
It is evident that North Korea's advancements in satellite technology directly challenge the security interests of the United States and its regional allies. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol pointed out that the satellite launch “would signify that North Korea’s ICBM capabilities have been taken to a higher level”, including a reach far beyond the Korean Peninsula, possibly even to US mainland cities.
These developments have critical implications for regional security as they increase the threat perception among neighbouring countries and potentially escalate nuclear tensions in the international arena. Given their historically tense relations with North Korea, South Korea and Japan are particularly concerned about the increased capabilities the recent spy satellite launch demonstrates.
The continued advancement of North Korea's space programme and missile capabilities poses another growing threat to regional security. The launch indicates Pyongyang’s capabilities in space technology and its potential for military applications. North Korea will likely continue to invest in its space programme and attempt future missile and satellite launches, which could further destabilise the region and raise tensions. This escalating threat calls for continued efforts in monitoring and addressing North Korea's space programme, as well as strengthening regional cooperation and deterrence measures to maintain stability.
Preventive measures: the significance of ROK-US-Japan cooperation
The spy satellite launch reinforces the need for vigilant monitoring and surveillance to assess the capabilities and intentions of North Korea, as well as to strengthen regional defence against potential nuclear missile attacks. In this regard, collaboration and coordination among regional powers such as South Korea, Japan, and the United States have become more crucial in deterring North Korea's aggressive actions.
Indeed, South Korea’s security cooperation extends beyond its ally, the US, as Japan has also developed closer security ties with Seoul, signing the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2016. This agreement ended in 2019, but it allowed for the sharing of sensitive military information between Japan and South Korea, affirming their commitment to regional security. Moreover, due to escalating threat perceptions, budget constraints, and demands for a peace dividend, the US pushed Japan and South Korea to assume greater responsibility in their respective alliances, in which both countries desired a more significant security role.
Therefore, President Yoon's decision to visit Japan in 2023 reflects South Korea's recognition of the importance of regional security and the benefits of strengthening ties with Tokyo to increase the deterrence posture against North Korea. In this regard, South Korea and Japan recently agreed to link their missile radar system under the US system to counter North Korea’s nuclear missiles and satellites. In October 2022, South Korea, Japan, and the United States conducted a ballistic missile defence drill and held their first trilateral anti-submarine exercises in almost five years to deter North Korea.
Thus, the significance of the ROK-US-Japan cannot be overstated in the evolving security environment of Northeast Asia. Given the severe security challenges in the region, including North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes, as well as China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, security cooperation between the three countries is now more crucial than ever before. Japan's advanced defence capabilities, close partnership with the US, and commitment to regional stability make it an invaluable partner for South Korea.
To effectively address this pressing security concern, collaborative efforts among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo are essential. These efforts should involve strengthening and expanding missile defence systems, enhancing intelligence sharing and cooperation, conducting joint military exercises, and imposing stricter sanctions on North Korea.
Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile programmes through negotiations and economic sanctions should also continue. Through these measures, Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo can send a strong message to North Korea that its provocative actions will not be tolerated and that there are consequences for its actions threatening regional security.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Wooyun Jo is a Doctoral Researcher in Politics and International Studies at Loughborough University. His research interests lie in International Security, with a major focus on alliance politics and nuclear deterrence in the Korean Peninsula. Before turning to academia, Wooyun served as an army officer in the Republic of Korea Army. Image credit: Wikimedia.