The US and China both failed at COP28

8 February 2024

COP28 was supposed to be a critical turning point in the fight against climate change. It was not. Instead, the outcome of COP28 was the sad confirmation that the international community is not willing to do enough to combat the ongoing climate crisis. The voices of least developed countries were not heard. The agreements that were made were tainted by a lack of commitment and vague enforcement terms.

Most notably, the gathering failed to quash an entrenched stereotype about climate diplomacy: that it is all promise and no action. As the two largest greenhouse gas emitters, the US and China have a responsibility to set the tone for climate engagement going forward. They set a cooperative but safe tone, and neither was ambitious enough to scale the action needed. With the US-China Sunnylands Statement of November 2023 signalling resumed cooperation on climate change, both countries must use and extend the momentum to the global south to avoid a repeat of COP28.

The headlines and highlights

That does not mean nothing happened. An unprecedented number of promises were made. Over 100 countries pledged to triple the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 and collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2 to over 4 per cent every year until 2030. Should these pledges turn into reality, the international community will see significant progress made to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as stipulated by the Paris Agreement. If we lived in a time fit for climate promises, that may have been enough. Sadly, however, we do not.

The US-China competition and efforts at cooperation epitomised by the Sunnylands Statement can both contribute to the two biggest polluters taking concrete action in global climate change mitigation and adaptation work.

COP28 started on 30 November 2023 with tremendous momentum following the passing of the historic agreement to establish a Loss and Damage fund made with contributions from industrialised countries to cover climate adaptation and sustainability efforts in least developed countries. Pledges started strong with USD 100 million from both the United Arab Emirates and Germany, USD 108 million from Italy and France, USD 17.5 million from the USA, and USD 10 million from Japan. At the end of COP28 on 13 December, pledges totalled almost USD 700 million, a step in the right direction but still insufficient considering we are yet to see those funds materialise and be dispersed.

An estimated USD 400 billion per year is needed to account for the loss and damage suffered by least developed countries, which includes ocean acidification, desertification, and extreme weather events. The physical manifestations of these risks include agricultural and infrastructure loss, biodiversity erasure, economic downturn, and loss of human life. The fund seeks to provide reparations for those malign effects. However, the exact processes for dispensing loss and damage funds have not been determined. As the world continues experiencing the impacts of climate change, the amount owed to loss and damage is only going to increase unless we as an international community accelerate our commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

One of the most publicised outcomes of COP28 was the final text of the Global Stocktake (GST), a deliverable mandated to the confab under the Paris Agreement which identifies where the international community stands in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The outcomes of the GST are to be used to help countries draft their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. NDCs reflect where a country is at regarding domestic climate progress while also identifying areas where more ambition is needed. Collectively, NDCs provide insight into where the international climate agenda stands and where further action is needed. The GST functioned as the tool to identify where the gaps are and where efforts must be concentrated. Both of these tools are critically important for climate advancement. Without understanding where we are at, we cannot identify the ambition needed to keep us on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators struggled to agree on the intensity of the language regarding the phaseout of fossil fuels. The final wording adopted was “transition away from fossil fuels” — a soft aspiration that leaves plenty of room for delay and underperformance. Yet, somehow, the approval of the GST was met with a standing ovation.

From promise to practice

COP28 convened against the backdrop of the Sunnylands Statement, a climate action agreement authored by envoys from the US and China. Sunnylands symbolised the first significant engagement between the two countries on climate since talks were halted due to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. The Statement reinforced the commitment both countries have to continue jointly fighting against climate change while reinforcing the importance of the Paris Agreement. The statement outlined cooperation opportunities across areas including energy transition, circular economy, subnational cooperation, and methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). While the agreement lacked any concrete plans, it did open the door to increased dialogue and opportunities between the two countries in the form of working groups. It similarly functioned as a political gesture of goodwill and intent, setting a floor under the relationship in the leadup to the important conversations of COP28.

If the world’s two biggest polluters can put their rivalry on hold long enough to agree to operationalise the Sunnylands Statement, they can and should also step up to lead by example when it comes to fulfilling COP28 pledges and promises. At COP28, both the US and China aimed to work together to advance the collective goals of the international community. China used its developing country status to advocate for other developing countries and the global south while calling upon developed countries like the US to step up action. China did not deviate from the status quo nor show any inkling of setting more ambitious domestic targets in the near future or contributing monetarily to funds. For its part, in addition to pledging funding and signing onto agreements, the US helped unite and shape negotiators’ decision-making processes that often took place behind the scenes.

The next round of NDCs are due for submission in 2025; this is an opportunity for both superpowers to incentivise smaller countries to not only follow through with their pledges and commitments at COP28, but also accelerate the ambition in their own NDCs. The last round of NDCs for both the US and China reinforced the need to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and featured broad sectorial approaches to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and scale up the portion of renewables in the energy mix. The NDCs showed intent for progress but played it relatively safe, lacking ambition and specificity in identifying clear targets and timelines.

However, central to accelerating NDCs and taking ambitious action on the international climate agenda is supporting the energy transition in least developed countries and the global south. One of my strongest takeaways from attending COP28 was the developed countries’ dismissal of representatives from least developing countries and the global south. Although leaders from the global south were given the opportunity to speak, it did not appear that any of what they said was really listened to, understood, or incorporated into the final text of the GST that is determined by the parties and the COP28 Presidency.

A distinctive moment was at the COP28 closing plenary when the text of the GST was passed. During the closing plenary, lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) Anne Rasmussen said, “We did not want to interrupt you, but we are a little confused about what just happened. It seems that you gavelled the decisions, and the small island developing states were not in the room”. Rasmussen’s comment is unfortunately an accurate summation of the treatment I observed given to the most climate change affected countries at COP28.

Keeping the North Star in sight

Mobilising the global south, especially the East Asian and Pacific region, is crucial to combating climate change. The region accounts for 39 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and 60 per cent of the world’s coal consumption. Supporting the clean energy transition of these economies through financial and technological advancement is key to advancing the international climate agenda and realising our goals under the Paris Agreement.

China has already positioned itself as a strong advocate for the global south. At COP28, China leveraged its position as a developing country to reinforce the call to action for developed countries to do more for nations that are most susceptible to climate change. It called on those countries who have had the ability to capitalise on greenhouse gas emissions to assist those in this period of transition and afford them an opportunity to similarly develop — but in a cleaner way. This advocacy from China follows a similar line of rhetoric that officials at other high-level engagements employed throughout 2023, including Chinese Vice President Han Zheng in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly.

China’s advocacy for the global south puts the pressure back on developed countries like the United States to step up action and support those most affected by climate change. The US-China competition and efforts at cooperation epitomised by the Sunnylands Statement can both contribute to the two biggest polluters taking concrete action in global climate change mitigation and adaptation work.

The COP28 Presidency repeatedly reminded delegates to keep the “North Star” target of 1.5 degrees in sight. Yet, as negotiations intensified and countries were put in positions of compromise, the North Star started to dwindle. We can only hope to observe pragmatic leadership — that centres the voices of those who must most be heard — from both the United States and China before COP29 in Azerbaijan later this year.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Taylah Bland is the Senior Program Officer for the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and Affiliated Fellow for Climate and the Environment with the Asia Society Policy Institute, Centre for China Analysis. She specialises in China's domestic climate politics and international environmental law. She holds a Master’s in Global Affairs (Law and Public Policy) from Tsinghua University as a Schwarzman Scholar and a Bachelor of Social Science (Comparative Law) and Mandarin from New York University, Shanghai. Image credit: Flickr/UNclimatechange.