Written by Dr Anisa Heritage
While a consolidation strategy offers a sensible course correction, deterrence in the Indo-Pacific depends as much on regional confidence in long-term political commitments as it does on military capability.
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As the US marks its 250th anniversary, we invite several key experts to analyse how a changing US foreign policy and regional minilateralism are reshaping Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
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This month’s brief examines Taiwan–Lithuania relations, where shared experiences of external pressure have driven closer political and tech cooperation. Five years on from Vilnius hosting Taiwan’s Representative Office, the relationship remains strongest politically, while delivering more limited economic outcomes — highlighting the challenge of turning strategic alignment into tangible shared success. Alongside this, our regional review explores an Indo-Pacific defined by fragmentation and adaptation.
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In this episode, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian are joined by Dr. Huong Le Thu of the International Crisis Group for a timely discussion on how Southeast Asia is responding to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Together, they explore how the crisis is being interpreted across the region, from differing diplomatic positions and domestic political pressures to the growing impact of energy shocks and disruptions to global shipping routes.
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Written by Liselotte Odgaard
As US strategy increasingly prioritises the Indo-Pacific while delegating greater responsibility to allies, NATO-IP4 cooperation is likely to deepen selectively — focusing on functional areas such as technology, maritime security, and resilience — rather than evolving into a fully institutionalised global alliance framework.
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Written by Jing Ge
Taiwan’s undersea cables are not only a communications vulnerability; they are also a test of crisis discipline in the Indo-Pacific. In a Taiwan Strait crisis, a severed cable could be read as an accident, a coercive signal, or the opening move in a larger confrontation.
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Written by Athena Charanne Presto and Maria Tanyag
The Philippines has had real regional influence on gender equality, supported by a long lineage of female diplomats, policymakers, and civil society leaders who have helped shape ASEAN’s gender equality architecture since its early years.
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Written by Percy Yixuanchen Yu
The lesson for Taiwan is uncomfortable but necessary. The AI shield is not a shield unless it is supported by social resilience, Taiwan's own diplomatic voice, and democratically authorised security policy.
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May highlights a defining trend across the Indo-Pacific: economic pressure and strategic competition are increasingly intertwined, as heatwaves, energy shocks, and supply-chain strain drive states to hedge more actively in a fragmented global order. This month’s feature examines Europe’s growing “strategic self-containment” in its China policy, reflecting a wider pattern of anticipatory restraint as states recalibrate under geopolitical pressure.
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Written by Khyati Singh
The potential to combine Chinese technological innovation with localised implementation means that Southeast Asia could yet transform its demographic challenge from a looming crisis into an engine of economically innovative and socially equitable growth.
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Written by Linn Thit Htoo
A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China.
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Written by Kushang Mishra
Instead of using this platform to champion a fairer system as an emerging leader of the Global South, the Indian government appeared content to secure a seat at the global power table and seek investments from the very Big Tech companies it has itself criticised in the past.
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Written by Muhammad Izzuddin Al Haq
If other middle powers in the Indo-Pacific follow Jakarta’s stance in resisting formal alignment, the region may become one where multilateral cooperation works in peacetime but falls short in crises, including grey zone escalation.
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Written by Apipol Sae-Tung
The regime’s institutional architecture is designed for continuity, but the energy crisis has introduced a level of volatility that requires a more agile and transparent response than the regime’s patronage-driven conservative roots traditionally allow.
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Written by Anuttama Banerji and Dr. Sahar Khan
A central weakness in the partnership is the absence of shared operational experience. Unlike US treaty allies, India has not participated in high-intensity contingencies alongside US forces. This limits trust, slows decision-making, and increases the risk of misalignment.
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Written by Chandarith Neak and Chhay Lim
Cambodia’s partners would do well to start seeing it for what it is: a small state with its own interests, its own history, and no good options — only hard choices.
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Written by Hunter Marston
The root of Myanmar’s crisis is political: as long as the military holds power, the country will be at war, and the economy will underperform.
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In this episode, Bernd Lange MEP joins us for an in-depth conversation on EU trade negotiations with ASEAN partners — including Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines — and what they mean for Europe's geoeconomic future in the region, as well as the key issues on the road to agreement.
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