9DASHLINE — Articles

North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon

Written by Joe Varner

Even though this satellite launch failed, it suggests that Pyongyang is following the model of other nuclear weapons states to develop and refine its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

East Asia9DLJuly 20, 2023North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon, Joe Varner, North Korea, Reconnaissance Satellite, North Korea Space Program, Nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence, Chollima-1, Malligyong-1, intercontinental ballistic missile, Pyongyang, Military ballistic capabilities, Sohae Satellite Launch Station, long-range drones, Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, 9dashline

Conservative zealots: Evangelical politics in South Korea

Written by Dr Yong Jae Kim

The critical conundrum for the political success of conservative evangelicals nowadays lies in the uncertainty of the relationship between evangelicals and the established conservative parties.

Post-INF Indo-Pacific: The strategic potential of US-Philippines cooperation

Written by Rupert Schulenburg

A rotational deployment of US ground-based anti-ship missiles to Philippine bases would constitute a major deepening of US-Philippines defence cooperation and could bolster regional deterrence.

East Asia9DLMay 18, 20239dashline, Post-INF Indo-Pacific: The strategic potential of US-Philippines cooperation, RUPERT SCHULENBURG, The Philippines, China, indo-pacific, US, US military primacy, navy, US military bases, Taiwan, military capabilities, US force posture, Taiwan contingency, US-Philippines defence cooperation, regional deterrence, US-Philippines, defence cooperation, anti-ship missile system, Manila, weapons systems, conventional missile strike volume, land-based nuclear forces, precision-strike missiles, Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, Trump administration, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INF, Russia, Mark Esper, south korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Beijing, economic boycott, conventional weapons, land-attack capability, missile-hosting nations, nuclear escalation, Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, EDCA, Typhon Weapon System, TWS, Tomahawk cruise missile, US army, Block Va, naval targets, Cesar Basa Air Base, Luzon, Antonio Bautista Air Base, Palawan, Taiwan Strait, short-range ballistic missile rounds, medium-range ballistic missile, launcher, Okinawa, missile batteries, strike volume, DF-26, Guam, surface combatants, amphibious assault ships, 2+2 ministerial dialogue, 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, Marcos Jr., Philippine sea, joint patrols, South China Sea, intelligence-sharing framework, joint jet fighter exercises, Bilateral Defense Guidelines, missile-hosting agreement, Post-INF Indo-Pacific: The strategic potential of US-Philippines cooperation, Rupert Schulenburg, Philippines, United States, South Korea, Japan, Indo-Pacific, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, RAND Corporation, Rodrigo Duterte

Ten-year review of China’s defence budget: Steadily toward modernisation

Written by Fei Su and Xiao Liang

Despite concerns over the transparency on the official figures, the sustained growth in China's military spending demonstrates its unwavering commitment to the PLA’s modernisation to become a ‘world-class’ military by the mid-21st century.

Japan’s defence plans: What matters is implementation

Written by Dr Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Without continuous efforts in Japan including securing monetary and political capital — together with coordinating and cooperating with regional partners — Tokyo’s push for defence modernisation will face a myriad of challenges going forward.

East Asia9DLMay 8, 2023Japan’s defence plans: what matters is implementation, 9DashLine, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan, defence, military, National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Buildup Program (DBP), pacifism, Japan’s pacifist constitution, Tokyo, Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF), counterattacks, military readiness, defence planning, National Defense Program Guidelines, China, North Korea, Russia, threats, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, conflict, warfare, military modernisation, strike capabilities, nuclear doctrine, preemptive strikes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, hybrid warfare, psychological warfare, cognitive warfare, capabilities, resilience, hypervelocity gliding projectiles, Okinawa, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, defence budget, US-Japan alliance, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral coordination, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, free and open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), NATO, Southeast Asia, rule of law, security dilemma

Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence

Written by Adrienne Wu and Melynn Oliver

Those who argue for a formal remilitarisation of Japan should consider why they advocate such a move. Amending Japan’s constitution has proven unnecessary to expand the SDF, therefore the only major benefit is to assay the fears of the Japanese public and expand its international role.

East Asia9DLMay 5, 20239DashLine, Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence, Adrienne Wu, Melynn Oliver, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defence budget, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tokyo, Japan's security, defence capabilities, Article 9 framework, Article 9, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, constitutional reform, US, Indo-Pacific, Japan’s pacifist constitution, pacifism, US forces, World War II, Korean War, Washington, Japan’s Supreme Court, right to self-defence, sovereignty, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, remilitarisation of Japan, Defense Agency, defence-related exports, collective defence, National Security Council, National Security Strategy (NSS), House of Representatives, Public support, Russia’s nuclear threats, Russia, China, anti-nuclear stance, Japan’s security role, tax hikes, National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Build-up Program (DBP), heightened alert posture, global power shifts, strategic challenge, North Korea, counter-strike capabilities, defence procurement and industrial development strategy, strategic clarity, strategic ambiguity, Taiwan, US-Japan Alliance, Quad, NATO

A new cut of the cloth: Exploring Beijing’s tailored response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting

Written by Rorry Daniels

Beijing long signalled that it would respond to a Tsai-McCarthy meeting, but its actions did not break precedent and in many ways showed restraint.

Power Politics, East Asia9DLApril 24, 20239dashline, A new cut of the cloth: Exploring Beijing’s tailored response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting, Rorry Daniels, Taiwan, US, China, Cross-Straits relations, cross-strait politics, Tsai Ing-wen, Kevin McCarthy, US Speaker of the House, military drills

The Chinese dragon may spout fire but is not ten feet tall yet

Written by Joe Varner

A strong US industrial base with sufficient munitions stockpiles and weapons systems is critical for deterring Beijing in war.

Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea

Written by Dr Chang-min Lee

Although both allies of the US, Japan and Korea are forced to compete with each other economically, which is exacerbated by persisting political problems between Tokyo and Seoul.

East Asia9DLApril 10, 20239DashLine, Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea, CHANG-MIN LEE, White House, US economic security strategy, economic security, President Joe Biden, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, China, US-China competition for hegemony, US-China competition, Japan, Korea, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, decoupling, technology, semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, chip makers, SK Hynix, electric vehicles, North America, Russia, automakers, core minerals, US-China rivalry, COVID-19 pandemic, vulnerability of global supply chains, supply chain security, Reshoring Initiative, foreign direct investment, Near-shoring, Mexico, American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, small yard, high fence, friend-shoring, AI, quantum technology, allies, technology gap, Economic Security Promotion Act, Kishida government, Biden administration, chip alliance, IBM, Rapidus, Toyota, Denso, Sony, NEC, NTT, Softbank, Kioxia, Toshiba, Tokyo Electron, high-tech, TSMC, Taiwan, export, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Human Rights Violation Act, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, foreign trade, friendly nations, National Security Council, pro-China

'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo — A false spring?

Written by Kevin Gray

The apparent ‘thaw’ of Korea-Japan relations is likely to be a ‘false spring’ rather than a genuine new era of bilateral relations and broader regional cooperation.

East Asia9DLApril 7, 20239dashline, 'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo - a false spring?, south korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, japan, Fumio Kishida, diplomatic relations, wartime forced labour, bilateral relations, Korean Supreme Court, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Korean families, WW2, forced labour, Kevin Gray, compensation for victims, financial compensation, export restrictions, key chemical exports, semiconductors, public outrage, Japanese goods, bilateral cooperation, regional ramifications, trilateral Japan-South Korea-US cooperation, China, North Korea, Japan-South Korea-US cooperation, Washington, trilateral alliance, security realm, military intelligence-sharing pact, Biden administration, Seoul, Anthony Blinken, ROK, allies, reconciliation, colonised country, colonising country, historical animosities., Park Jin, Foreign Minister Park Jin, Tokyo, apologies, wartime sexual slavery, Shinzo Abe, Japanese history textbooks, Japanese war crimes, colonial history, comfort women, 2015 ‘comfort women’ agreement, comfort women statues, grievances, geopolitical imperatives, decolonisation, Cold War imperatives, 1965 Treaty of Basic Relations, Park Chung-hee, developmental drive, popular protests, private claims for compensation, historical injustices, Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, candlelight revolution, Democratic Party, Yoon government, Dokdo/Takeshima, 'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo — a false spring?, 'THAWING' BETWEEN SEOUL AND TOKYO — A FALSE SPRING?

“Nuke for nuke” — Kim Jong-un’s audacious escalation gambit

Written by Kylie Jones

To avoid a devasting conflict, the United States needs to persuade Kim Jong-un that salvaging relations between the two countries is in his best interest.

Normative power Taiwan? Human rights and Taiwan-EU relations

Written by Marcin Jerzewski

In the context of Taiwan-EU relations, the primary objective of cooperation on human rights should be to address the main areas of concern delineated by the EU.

Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy will not make big waves in Southeast Asia

Written by Alessandro Vesprini and Matteo Piasentini

The best option for South Korea is to double down on diplomacy, economic ties, and military sales, as well as tighten the dialogue with like-minded middle powers in the region.

East Asia9DLFebruary 28, 20239dashline, Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy will not make big waves in Southeast Asia, Alessandro Vesprini, Matteo Piasentini, Seoul, south korea, Southeast Asia, 23rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ROK, ASEAN summit, ASEAN-ROK summit, Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, Indo-Pacific, Yoon, Yoon Suk-yeol, rules-based order, New Southern Policy, Moon Jae-in, China, Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative, KASI, ASEAN Member States, ASMs, Indo-Pacific Strategy, rules-based international order, United States, US, Beijing, People, Prosperity, and Peace, NSP Plus, economic cooperation, bilateral relationships, principles of cooperation, Inclusiveness, Trust, and Reciprocity, building regional order, rule of law, human rights, non-proliferation, counter-terrorism, security cooperation, security and defence, Mekong-ROK, New Northern Policy, Pyongyang, strategic partnerships, multilateral trade deals, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Asia Power Index, ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific, AOIP, mechanisms of conflict management, 2022 ASEAN Summit, South China Sea, Global Pivotal Power, military capabilities, strategic constraints, security dialogue initiatives, autonomous foreign policy, US-China competition, North Korea, inter-Korean relations, soft power

Reading tea leaves: Taiwan’s November 2022 ‘midterm’ elections

Written by Alexander C. Tan

With the 2024 presidential and legislative elections about two years away — which might as well be an eternity in politics — the DPP has time to regroup and recalibrate its message.

Taiwan: A partner for a resilient Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

With the Taiwan Strait as a potential military flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific, embedding Taiwan in regional cooperation frameworks will support the efforts of like-minded democracies to deter Beijing’s destabilising actions which are affecting the entire region.

East Asia9DLFebruary 9, 20239dashline, Taiwan: a partner for a resilient Indo-Pacific, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, resilience, Taiwan strait, regional cooperation frameworks, China, Beijing, dialogue partner, destabilising actions, minilateral frameworks, diplomatic isolation, Taipei, revisionist posture, US-China geostrategic rivalry, minilateral cooperation, multilateralism, Quadrilateral Dialogue, Quad, Xi Jinping, Nancy Pelosi, semiconductors, bilateral ties, US, Washington, economic coercion, disinformation, global expansion, grey zone activities, Audrey Tang, COVID-19, infodemic, transparency, international cooperation, Russia, Russia-Ukraine war, national resilience, emergency preparedness, resource deployment capabilities, ASEAN, Nobuo Kishi, Australia-Taiwan partnership, Jenny Bloomfield, Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, SCRI, Artificial Intelligence, AI, Global Cooperation and Training Framework, GCTF, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association, JTEA

Forum 2023: Intra-Indo-Pacific cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea

9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess the prospect of security-oriented cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea. Given potential threats like an increasingly assertive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea, how can New Delhi, Tokyo, and Seoul benefit from increased cooperation?

East Asia9DLFebruary 3, 20239dashline, Forum 2023: Intra-Indo-Pacific cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea, India, South Korea, Indo-Pacific, DR ANIT MUKHERJEE, China, India-South Korea, naval cooperation, maritime exercises, anti-submarine warfare, arms trade, defence, Quad, Australia, US, multilateral exercise, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, military, military intelligence, emerging technologies, NAZIA HUSSAIN, power rivalry, middle powers, minilateral groupings, Japan-India Maritime Exercise, JIMEX, Malabar exercises, Yoon Suk-yeol, US-China contest, Quad Plus, Milan naval exercise, counter-piracy capabilities, ABHIJIT SINGH, Special Strategic and Global Partners, New Delhi, strategic relations, 2+2 Ministerial Dialogues, India-Japan Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, military supplies, maritime cooperation, defence trade, intelligence sharing, cyber cooperation, space cooperation, Russia-Ukraine war, Tokyo, North Korea, defence technology, regional security footprint

2023: South Korea and nuclear ambitions

Should South Korea develop its own nuclear weapons? 9DASHLINE invites a select group of experts to assess the viability of this proposition and its potential impact.

East Asia9DLJanuary 27, 20239dashline, 2023: South Korea and nuclear ambitions, ELISABETH SUH, DR ERIC J. BALLBACH, South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, nuclear, nuclear weapons, missile launches, nuclear-armed regime, nuclear imbalance, Seoul, independent arsenal, US tactical nuclear weapons, US, US-South Korea alliance, Washington, Joint Declaration on Denuclearization, nuclear arms race, nuclear program, Yoon Suk-yeol, nuclear capabilities, ballistic missile tests, artificial nuclear warheads, military command facilities, nuclear-sharing arrangement, nuclearisation, defence budget, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, ISR, nuclear proliferation, nuclear deterrence, civilian nuclear power program, military program, weapons-grade fissile material, nuclear explosives, nuclear warheads, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, international sanctions, 123 Agreement, conventional triad, air and missile defence systems, Short-Range Ballistic Missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, long-range cruise missiles, defensive missile technologies, offensive missile technologies, pre-emptive strikes, retaliatory strikes, forward-deployed tactical nuclear weapons, US extended deterrence, China, Article X, negotiation, non-proliferation regime, global non-proliferation regime, DR IN YOUNG MIN, DR MIN-HYUNG KIM

Attentive friends, busy enemies, and a bright future — 2023 for North Korea

Written by Benedikt Staar

North Korean politics are strongly influenced by the regime’s friends, its enemies, and its own ambitions. As it turns out, things look promising for Pyongyang on all three fronts.