Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy will not make big waves in Southeast Asia

Written by Alessandro Vesprini and Matteo Piasentini

The best option for South Korea is to double down on diplomacy, economic ties, and military sales, as well as tighten the dialogue with like-minded middle powers in the region.

East Asia9DLFebruary 28, 20239dashline, Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy will not make big waves in Southeast Asia, Alessandro Vesprini, Matteo Piasentini, Seoul, south korea, Southeast Asia, 23rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ROK, ASEAN summit, ASEAN-ROK summit, Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, Indo-Pacific, Yoon, Yoon Suk-yeol, rules-based order, New Southern Policy, Moon Jae-in, China, Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative, KASI, ASEAN Member States, ASMs, Indo-Pacific Strategy, rules-based international order, United States, US, Beijing, People, Prosperity, and Peace, NSP Plus, economic cooperation, bilateral relationships, principles of cooperation, Inclusiveness, Trust, and Reciprocity, building regional order, rule of law, human rights, non-proliferation, counter-terrorism, security cooperation, security and defence, Mekong-ROK, New Northern Policy, Pyongyang, strategic partnerships, multilateral trade deals, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Asia Power Index, ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific, AOIP, mechanisms of conflict management, 2022 ASEAN Summit, South China Sea, Global Pivotal Power, military capabilities, strategic constraints, security dialogue initiatives, autonomous foreign policy, US-China competition, North Korea, inter-Korean relations, soft power

Reading tea leaves: Taiwan’s November 2022 ‘midterm’ elections

Written by Alexander C. Tan

With the 2024 presidential and legislative elections about two years away — which might as well be an eternity in politics — the DPP has time to regroup and recalibrate its message.

Taiwan: A partner for a resilient Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

With the Taiwan Strait as a potential military flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific, embedding Taiwan in regional cooperation frameworks will support the efforts of like-minded democracies to deter Beijing’s destabilising actions which are affecting the entire region.

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Forum 2023: Intra-Indo-Pacific cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea

9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess the prospect of security-oriented cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea. Given potential threats like an increasingly assertive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea, how can New Delhi, Tokyo, and Seoul benefit from increased cooperation?

East Asia9DLFebruary 3, 20239dashline, Forum 2023: Intra-Indo-Pacific cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea, India, South Korea, Indo-Pacific, DR ANIT MUKHERJEE, China, India-South Korea, naval cooperation, maritime exercises, anti-submarine warfare, arms trade, defence, Quad, Australia, US, multilateral exercise, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, military, military intelligence, emerging technologies, NAZIA HUSSAIN, power rivalry, middle powers, minilateral groupings, Japan-India Maritime Exercise, JIMEX, Malabar exercises, Yoon Suk-yeol, US-China contest, Quad Plus, Milan naval exercise, counter-piracy capabilities, ABHIJIT SINGH, Special Strategic and Global Partners, New Delhi, strategic relations, 2+2 Ministerial Dialogues, India-Japan Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, military supplies, maritime cooperation, defence trade, intelligence sharing, cyber cooperation, space cooperation, Russia-Ukraine war, Tokyo, North Korea, defence technology, regional security footprint

2023: South Korea and nuclear ambitions

Should South Korea develop its own nuclear weapons? 9DASHLINE invites a select group of experts to assess the viability of this proposition and its potential impact.

East Asia9DLJanuary 27, 20239dashline, 2023: South Korea and nuclear ambitions, ELISABETH SUH, DR ERIC J. BALLBACH, South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, nuclear, nuclear weapons, missile launches, nuclear-armed regime, nuclear imbalance, Seoul, independent arsenal, US tactical nuclear weapons, US, US-South Korea alliance, Washington, Joint Declaration on Denuclearization, nuclear arms race, nuclear program, Yoon Suk-yeol, nuclear capabilities, ballistic missile tests, artificial nuclear warheads, military command facilities, nuclear-sharing arrangement, nuclearisation, defence budget, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, ISR, nuclear proliferation, nuclear deterrence, civilian nuclear power program, military program, weapons-grade fissile material, nuclear explosives, nuclear warheads, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, international sanctions, 123 Agreement, conventional triad, air and missile defence systems, Short-Range Ballistic Missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, long-range cruise missiles, defensive missile technologies, offensive missile technologies, pre-emptive strikes, retaliatory strikes, forward-deployed tactical nuclear weapons, US extended deterrence, China, Article X, negotiation, non-proliferation regime, global non-proliferation regime, DR IN YOUNG MIN, DR MIN-HYUNG KIM

Attentive friends, busy enemies, and a bright future — 2023 for North Korea

Written by Benedikt Staar

North Korean politics are strongly influenced by the regime’s friends, its enemies, and its own ambitions. As it turns out, things look promising for Pyongyang on all three fronts.

Best of 2022: Understanding China

A central actor in regional and global politics and governance, scholars and analysts continue to debate all aspects of its domestic and foreign policies. Speculation remains rife about whether a collapse of its economy and government is imminent, or whether it will forcibly claim Taiwan.

East Asia9DLJanuary 5, 2023China, A litany of economic woes but in China politics rules, Jabin Jacob, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, COVID, Zero-COVID, BRI, Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese public databases leaks reveal growing dissatisfaction with authorities, Antonia Hmaidi, hacktivism, Hackers, Data, data leaks, See no evil hear no evil speak no evil — China’s reaction to the OHCHR’s Xinjiang report, David O'Brien, Uyghurs, OHCHR, Xinjiang, Genocide, What's happening on the China-Vietnam Border, Bill Hayton, Vietnam, Beijing, Lessons from Chinese Government Interference in Australia, James Laurenceson, Australia, Why factional politics might no longer matter in China, 9DL, 9DASHLINE, How China became the standard maker, Philip Lott, Aspen Institute, International Telecommunications Union, Sam Bresnick, Going global: Beijing’s bid to rewrite the rules of international security, Biden, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative

Xi, the state, and war

Written by Maximilian Ernst

Hence, before looking for clues to Chinese foreign policy in the personalities of Chinese leaders, foreign policy analysts would be well advised to first direct their attention to the international level.

East Asia9DLDecember 22, 20229dashline, Xi, the state, and war, Maximilian Ernst, Xi the state and war, Waltz, Kenneth Waltz, 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), General Secretary of the Party, Central Military Commission (CMC), Central Committee, Politburo, Standing Committee of the Politburo, party factions, former President Hu Jintao, Hu Jintao, Sino-US competition, rising power, military, military-strategic, personality, China’s foreign policy, Taiwan, south china sea, US, opposition, Zhongnanhai, Bo Xilai, counterfactual, structural perspective, international relations, international relations theory, geography, economic power, military power, units in an international system, security, wealth, CCP establishment, Chinese Communist Youth League, Shanghai Gang, Neo-Maoist faction, Kerry Brown, elites, Reform and Opening policies, Deng Xiaoping, Hide-and-Bide, 韬光养晦, Hide-and-Bide strategy, responsible stakeholder, Bind-and-Hedge phase, post-Tiananmen, WTO, Shape-and-Restructure phase, pivot to Asia, rebalancing, first island chain, alliance, Kuril Islands, Japan, Philippines, Malay Peninsula, COVID-19 pandemic, Belt and Road Initiative, Winnie the Pooh

What’s new about China’s new (draft) social credit law?

Written by Alexander Trauth-Goik and Pierre Sel

Authorities have prioritised unification rather than clarification, resulting in a jumbled document that leaves many questions unanswered.

East Asia9DLDecember 21, 20229DashLine, Alexander Trauth-Goik, Pierre Sel, What’s new about China’s new (draft) social credit law?, Chinese Social Credit System Project (SCSP), Social Credit System Construction Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft Law), legal, law, surveillance, social credit, social control, China, Chinese, CCP, Chinese State Council, Planning Outline for the Construction of a Social Credit System 2014-2020, trustworthiness, trust, social, society, integrity, bureaucracy, Social Credit Blacklists, policy experimentation, municipal, local, redlist, scoring, rating, due diligence, Ant Group’s Sesame Credit, China’s Central Bank, Tencent, Meituan, credit-scoring, 13th National People's Congress Standing Committee, Social Credit Law, judicial system, shaming, naming and shaming, National Basic List of Penalty Measures for Untrustworthiness, Catalogue of Public Credit Information, Financial Credit, reporting, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), People's Bank of China (PBoC)

How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Kyoko Hatakeyama

Moreover, since Japan has maintained a stable relationship with China — despite their territorial disputes — the region does not have to worry about backlash or anger from China just because they choose Japan over China.

East Asia9DLDecember 16, 20229dashline, How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific, Kyoko Hatakeyama, Japan, China, South China Sea, nine-dash line, Senkaku Island, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP, TPP, United States, Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade partner, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Tokyo, Beijing, regional economic integration, sphere of influence, Sino-centric order, infrastructure projects, G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, G20, Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment, indo-pacific, Abeonomics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Abenomics, Shinzo Abe, South Korea, Taiwan, Jakarta, Bandung, Indonesia, Cambodia, debt, debt trap, Pacific Island states, Solomon Islands, Australia, New Zealand, COVID-19 crisis, COVAX, WHO, ASEAN, Sinovac, Laos, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Donald Trump, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ‘debt trap’ diplomacy, Asian Development Bank, Nauru, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Philippines, Vietnam, Philippine Coast Guards (PCG), Joko Widodo, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Natuna archipelago, Natuna Islands, USA

BTS, military enlistment controversy, and lessons for Korea’s public diplomacy

Written by Nguyen Le

Miscalculated interventions from the government as in the case of BTS weaken South Korean soft power, social cohesion, and — even worse — personal rights (by instrumentalising humans as public diplomacy tools).

China’s population prospects: A historical perspective

Written by Cameron Campbell

Policies should instead focus on adaptations to realise fully the potential of the existing labour force and alter the environment to facilitate healthy and independent living for the elderly.

China’s water security dilemma

Written by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro

The current approach has resulted in a water policy that has had a detrimental impact on regional water security and social stability, thus heightening tensions in the region.

The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals

Written by Alice Dell’Era

From Europe’s perspective, these potential trilateral and/or minilateral consultative mechanisms could give European actors the space to voice their own outlook, ensuring that European viewpoints are incorporated into Japanese and American perspectives.

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Yoon’s ‘lame duck’ presidency

Written by Vicent Plana Aranda

Looking at the trajectory of Yoon’s ratings during the first six months of his presidency, it will be difficult to recover his presidency’s early levels of approval, and more likely that it consolidates into what could be called a ‘lame duck’ presidency.

East Asia, Power Politics9DLNovember 17, 20229DashLine, Yoon’s ‘lame duck’ presidency, Vicent Plana Aranda, South Korea, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Democratic Party, opposition, People Power Party (PPP), National Assembly, approval ratings, Gallup Korea, Blue House, Yongsan, Seoul, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, Beijing, Office of the President, Han Dong-hoon, appointments, Supreme Prosecutor, Minister of Justice, Minister of Health, Chung Ho-young, nepotism, Kim Seung-hee, Korea Fair Trade Commission, Song Ok-rial, sexual harassment, Kim In-chul, plagiarism, bangseokjip, Education Minister Park Soon-ae, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, United Nations General Assembly, New York, Queen Elizabeth II, London, Global Fund’s Seventh Replenishment, Biden, Congress, South Korean broadcaster MBC, nallimyun, Kim Eun-hye, South Korean National Assembly, freedom of the press, press freedom, Park Sung-jae, local elections, Busan, mayoral by-elections, impeachment, former President Park Geun-hye, lame duck, legislative elections

The Korean Peninsula: Lessons from Russia's aggression against Ukraine

Written by Oskar Pietrewicz

The different reactions of South Korea and North Korea to the Russian invasion, the deepening Chinese-Russian cooperation, and US efforts to strengthen alliances, may perpetuate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Techno-nationalism: A key driver behind China’s geostrategic ambitions

Written by Dibakar De

Thousands of people from around the world have already clustered in China to fill positions related to technological research, raising the nation’s status as a top destination for high-end activities and adding to the growing national pride.

Taiwan's midterm elections are about more than geopolitics

Written by Brian Hioe

Local midterm elections are more often about domestic issues than international, cross-strait ones, and it would be misleading to view Taiwanese politics solely through the frame of cross-strait issues.