NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

Announcing dates for editorial team summer break

This year, our dedicated team of editors will be taking a well-deserved summer break from 21 August to 4 September.

We look forward to reconnecting with you once we resume our regular schedule in early September.

News9DLAugust 21, 20239dashline, Announcing dates for editorial team summer break

Germany’s new China Strategy – A roadmap for climate foreign policy

Written by Belinda Schäpe

Germany’s China Strategy is a first attempt to address climate change in a key foreign policy strategy, encapsulating all related areas, and going beyond empty cooperation rhetoric.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLAugust 18, 20239dashline, Belinda Schäpe, Germany’s new China Strategy – A roadmap for climate foreign policy, Germany, China, German Strategy on China, bilateral relationship, climate change, Beijing, climate cooperation, climate engagement, strategic cooperation, accountability, green tech, multilateral finance, climate foreign policy, global responsibilities, climate targets, coal power, Xi Jinping, global coal pipelines, energy security concerns, global green transition, climate finance, Paris Agreement, Belt and Road Initiative, South-South Climate Cooperation Fund, multilateral funds, multilateral financial system, emerging debt crises, developing countries, Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, climate negotiations, G20, World Bank, IMF, foreign policy, economic agendas, Europe, green tech supply chains, (geo)political tool, Nancy Pelosi, Taiwan, human rights, de-risking, green technologies, energy supply, International Energy Agency, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, CBAM, carbon intensive products, Climate and Transformation Dialogue, industrial decarbonisation, National Security Strategy, Germany-China Memorandum of Understanding

Parting ways? The uncertain future of the Belt and Road Initiative in Italy

Written by Francesco Giovanni Lizzi

While an automatic continuation of the MoU might dissuade a Chinese reaction, it would squander the political capital invested to reassure the American allies. Conversely, exiting the Initiative would complicate Chinese-Italian relations even further since an alternative agreement with Beijing would be needed.

While the world softens on the Taliban, Afghans continue to suffer

Written by Chris Fitzgerald

The international community should leverage the Taliban’s desire for recognition and the need to solve Afghanistan’s problems with improving human rights in the country.

Editor's Picks9DLAugust 16, 20239dashline, While the world softens on the Taliban, Afghans continue to suffer, Chris Fitzgerald, Afghanistan, US, United States, Taliban, Taliban regime, Doha, US department of state, Thomas West, Special Representative of Afghanistan, Qatar, humanitarian crisis, human rights situation, terrorism, authoritarian, terror groups, womens rights, minority rights, Kabul, Hamid Karzai International Airport, Washington, sanctions, Islamic extremist groups, Islamic extremism, Amina Mohammed, António Guterres, embassies, China, Uzbekistan, trans-Afghan railway, economic crises, humanitarian crises, starvation, humanitarian assistance, Al Qaeda, Islamic State in Khorasan, ISIS-K, human rights record, LGBTQIA+ rights, gender rights, enforced veiling, restricting freedom of movement, international aid organisations, domestic aid organisations, UN, United Nations, international law, Central Asia, While the world softens on the Taliban Afghans continue to suffer

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

Faultlines9DLAugust 11, 2023China’s uncertain future as a global security provider, Lukas Fiala, 9DashLine, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Beijing, Global South, security, mediator, Riyadh, Tehran, Middle East, Washington, diplomacy, isolation, COVID-19, pandemic, United States, China’s overseas security strategy, strategy, foreign policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, mediation, peace and security, peace broker, non-state actors, intrastate conflicts, statist approach, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, security and defence cooperation, Hu Jintao, United Nations peacekeeping (UNPK) missions, South Sudan, Mali, Africa, Latin America, multilateral, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military base in Djibouti, Global Security Initiative (GSI), security actor, US-led global security order, global security governance, UN Charter, indivisible security, sovereignty, 1975 Helsinki Accords, Vladimir Putin, NATO expansion, NATO, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western imperialism, imperial history, Western colonial powers, century of national humiliation, Soviet Union, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Western hegemony, principle of non-interference, non-aligned movement, Cold War, non-intervention, 干涉, 干预, security provider, Sudan, Libya, ‘Go Out Strategy’ (走出去战略), Chinese state-owned enterprises, natural resources, raw materials, multilateral lenders, development finance, human rights, good governance, 2008 Beijing Olympics, al-Bashir regime, African Union, Darfur, Libyan civil war, People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA), Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese interests, power projection, security-development nexus, liberal peace, developmental peace, Ethiopia, civil war, Pakistan, South Asia, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamic extremism, Islamabad, sovereign lender, arbiter, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Saudi-Iran rapprochement, Iraq, Afghanistan, global war on terror, piracy, Gulf of Aden, 9dashline

Legal matters, religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia

Written by Aniello Iannone, Laure Siegel, Gabriel Facal, Ida Fagervold, and Nicha Wachpanich

Even in countries with democratic systems, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, the religious-political context slows down the LGBTQ+ inclusion process.

Southeast Asia9DLAugust 9, 20239Dashline, Legal matters, religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia, ANIELLO IANNONE, Laure Siegel, GABRIEL FACAL, IDA FAGERVOLD, NICHA WACHPANICH, LGBT, LGBTQ, LGBT+, LGBTIQ, LGBTQI+, Southeast Asia, gender rights, gender discrimination, civil liberties, public healthcare, Religion, Islam, Catholicism, Buddhism, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Timor-Leste, Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar, norm variation, same-sex couples, same-sex relationships, Banda Aceh, Sharia, KUHP, discrimination, Human Rights Watch, gender minority groups, Reynhard Sinaga case, UK, propaganda, Depok Mayor Mohammad Idris, gay, lesbian, transgender, Brunei Darussalam, homosexual, Catholic Church, sexual orientation, heterosexual, masculinity, President Ramos-Horta, President Rodrigo Duterte, war on drugs, gender-based discrimination, HIV, Christianity, conservative, Christian churches, gay marriage, same-sex marriage, marriage equality, General Prayuth Chan-o-cha, military coup, Move Forward party, Future Forward party, Bangkok Pride, sex worker rights, gender recognition, Women's rights, Myanmar LGBTQIA Human Rights Watch, Nay Pyi Daw, junta, violence, Legal matters religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia

India’s prolonged wait for MQ-9B drones ends

Written by Vedant Saigal

In the aftermath of the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, the Indian Navy used two MQ-9 SeaGuardian drones to keep an eye on Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean Region.

South Asia9DLAugust 8, 20239dashline, India’s prolonged wait for MQ-9B drones ends, India, MQ-9B, drones, Defense Acquisition Council, DAC, Rajnath Singh, United States, Prime Minister Modi, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., GA-ASI, surveillance capabilities, Indian Ocean region, China, technology transfers, Gulf War, modern warfare, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, UAVs, Manned and Unmanned Teaming, MUM-T, cyberattacks, cybercrimes, Russia-Ukraine war, UAV industry, tactical technology, battlefield surveillance, artillery spotting, reconnaissance, target acquisition, surveillance, unmanned drones, fighter jets, South Asia, Pakistan, Cai Hong-4, CH-4, Wing Loong-II, military infrastructure, predator drones, air-to-ground missiles, smart bombs, strike capabilities, Israeli drones, Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance, ISR, Galwan Valley, Indian Navy, Indian Ocean Region, IOR, General Atomics, Djibouti, People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLAN, New Delhi, Chinese vessels, missile tests, Yuan Wang 6, Yuan Wang 5, Malacca, Lombok, Sunda, Unmanned Aerial Systems, remotely piloted aircraft system, RPAS, Indian Armed Forces, SkyGuardian, SkyGuardian drones, predator drone, MQ-9 Reaper, Fault-Tolerant Flight Control System, Triple Redundant Avionics System, Digital Electronic Engine Control, DEEC, defence expenditure, US-India military ties, US-India, technology, Vedant Saigal

No country for asylum-seekers: The complexity of refugee protection in South Korea

Written by Dr Angela Y. McClean

South Korea’s migration agenda has primarily been utilitarian, prioritising migrant populations that are deemed undisruptive to the Korean social and ethnic makeup, and necessary to the development of the nation, while imposing restrictions on those who are not.

No land in sight: Prospects of a South China Sea Code of Conduct

Written by Dr Apila Sangtam

The differing stances on the legal nature of the COC and China's assertive actions in contested waters pose significant obstacles to reaching a comprehensive and effective agreement.

Southeast Asia9DLAugust 3, 20239DashLine, Apila Sangtam, ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with China, ASEAN, China, Jakarta, Code of Conduct (COC), south china sea, Wang Yi, Qin Gang, Beijing, Vietnam, Johnson Reef, the Philippines, Mischief Reef, Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), Ian Storey, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, Spratly Islands, Le Thu Huong, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Arbitral Tribunal's Award in 2016, nine-dash line, international law, Li Keqiang, 37th ASEAN Summit, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Covid-19 pandemic, Myanmar, 2021 military coup, v, transnational crime, marine environmental protection, maritime safety, oil and gas, militarising, Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), Paracel Islands, Hanoi, 2016 South China Sea Award, grey zone, Chinese fishing boats, Chinese research vessel, No land in sight: Prospects for the South China Sea Code of Conduct, Nine Dash Line

Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today

Written by Dr Oliver Scanlan

Taiwan has always sought ways to expand its geopolitical influence; expanding its ‘international space’ is a way of mitigating the risks of Chinese coercion. If establishing an SWF would serve this end, then a much larger development bank would be even more effective.

Editor's Picks9DLAugust 2, 20239DashLine, Oliver Scanlan, Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today, Taiwan, Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), geopolitics, Development Finance Institution, development bank, foreign exchange reserves, “Taiwan Development Bank” (TDB), government debt, concessionary finance, loans, interest rates, investment, decarbonisation, economic leverage, International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Santiago Principles, Yang Chin-Long, Taiwan’s Central Bank, Germany, KfW, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, Ethical, profitable, strategic sectors, Taiwania national investment fund, green energy, startups, joint ventures, circular economy, Taiwan’s “5+2” industrial strategy, resilience, adaptation, mitigation, official development assistance (ODA), “Indigenous Peoples Economic and Trade Cooperation Arrangement” (IPETCA), New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Indigenous Nations, World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), export-led economy, whose sovereign debt is an attractive, international credit ratings agencies, Fitch, Public Debt Act, Net International Investment Position, Philippines, debt-to-GDP ratio, Austria, Netherlands, G20, OECD, South Korea, E3G, Nick Mabey, risk, US Inflation Reduction Act, supply chain, climate change, Chinese coercion, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

In the Maldives, domestic politics is causing China to lose ground

Written by Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy

There is less space for China’s diplomatic manoeuvres if the next Maldivian government embraces a minimalist interaction with China and chooses alternative Indo-Pacific partners to deter any Chinese misadventures.

The myth of the 'vassal state': China’s influence in Laos is waning

Written by Joanne Lin

Statistics have shown that although China has a significant degree of influence over Laos, it is certainly not controlling the country.

The US-India partnership after Modi’s visit to Washington

Written by Satvik Pendyala and Nathaniel Sher

As the United States adapts to rising strategic competition with China, it has sought to strengthen ties with New Delhi as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific.

Power Politics9DLJuly 27, 20239dashline, The US-India partnership after Modi’s visit to Washington, Satvik Pendyala, Nathaniel Sher, Modi, US, US-China, Washington DC, Kurt Campbell, Narendra Modi, people-to-people domains, technology, defence, economy, technology sharing deals, US allies, New Delhi, strategic competition, Indo-Pacific, US-India, China-India, Ladakh, Line of Actual Control, LAC, Tsinghua University, India, influence in South Asia, beijing, US security partner, Ashley Tellis, US-China contingency, Western Pacific contingency, zone of conflict, defence cooperation, Galwan border clashes, India-China tensions, People’s Liberation Army, PLA, Western Theater Command, Depsang Plains, Tibetan Military District, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Quad, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, IPEF, BRICS, SCO, BRI, Global Security Initiative, threat perception, security cooperation, formal ally, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, military contingency, economic development, security interests, great power aspirations, Indian Ocean, Sino-Indian border, territorial disputes, Chinese pressure, maritime capabilities, PLA Navy, military build-up, Malacca Strait, border conflict, border territories, Brahma Chellaney, deterrence signalling, Major Defense Partner, Strategic Trade Authorization Tier 1, dual-use technologies, military technologies, joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing, critical jet technology, spaceflight, armed drones, semiconductors

In Conversation with Dr Rohan Mukherjee

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Dr Rohan Mukherjee to talk about his fascinating book Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions. Using original and robust archival evidence, the book offers the first comprehensive study of conflict and cooperation as new powers join the global arena.

In Conversation9DLJuly 26, 20239dashline, ROHAN MUKHERJEE, In Conversation with Dr Rohan Mukherjee, Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions, international order, international institutions, rising powers, India, China, Institutional Status Theory, major power, great power, status, hierarchy, diplomacy, war, conflict, Graham Allison, Britain, United States, Beijing, post-1945 US-led international order, trade, finance, human rights, development, environment, Cold War, non-state actors, hegemony, great power club, UN Security Council, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), UN General Assembly, G20, G7, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, C. Raja Mohan, Global North, Global South, Afro-Asian solidarity, Third World, multilateralism, climate change, peacekeeping, global governance, Washington System, Japan, Tokyo, Washington Conference, racism, Asian Development Bank, Korea, Russia, Tudor Onea, Confederacy, American Civil War, 1871 Treaty of Washington

Why China is an unlikely mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war

Written by Dr Eva Seiwert

Despite China’s interest in increasing its involvement in crisis resolution, it remains unclear whether Beijing is willing to mediate, and whether it can be a fair broker, in the Russia-Ukraine war.

In Brief with James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia

This week, 9DASHLINE had the opportunity to speak with James Crabtree, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia (IISS).

In Brief9DLJuly 24, 20239dashline, James Crabtree, International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia, IISS, Asia, security dynamics, Indo-Pacific, Shangri-La Dialogue, India, New Delhi, international order, aspirant great powers, global order, China, US-China, Blinken, US-China relations, Janet Yellen, G20, APEC, Xi Jinping, semiconductor export restrictions, Singapore, Heng Swee Keat, Little Red Dot, economic ties, security partnership, great power rivalry, superpower rivalry, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore military, Indonesia, North Korea, south korea, Pakistan, joint naval exercises, great broker, Southeast Asia, Joko Widodo, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Kiev, inward investment, power projection, ASEAN, South Natuna Sea, regional security cooperation, joint drills, Myanmar, Sino-US competition, minilateral groupings, Quad, pan-regional security, Track-I, In Brief with James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia

North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon

Written by Joe Varner

Even though this satellite launch failed, it suggests that Pyongyang is following the model of other nuclear weapons states to develop and refine its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

East Asia9DLJuly 20, 2023North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon, Joe Varner, North Korea, Reconnaissance Satellite, North Korea Space Program, Nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence, Chollima-1, Malligyong-1, intercontinental ballistic missile, Pyongyang, Military ballistic capabilities, Sohae Satellite Launch Station, long-range drones, Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, 9dashline