In Brief with James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia
In Brief with
James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia
11 July 2023
This week, 9DASHLINE had the opportunity to speak with James Crabtree, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia (IISS).
Given his vast journalistic experience and work as a leading Asia analyst, our conversation touched on several key issues concerning security dynamics within the Indo-Pacific, and the recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue.
9DL: You have spent a big part of your career studying and reporting on India. New Delhi has become more vocal and strident in its criticism of the international order. How, in your view, is today’s India different?
JC: As India’s power increases, so does its sense of its broader national interest and its strategic space in the region and the world. And as that happens, it will seek to revise elements of the regional and global order that it doesn’t like, as other aspirant great powers have done. India presently describes itself as a ‘leading power’, namely one which has the capacity to shape its region and to some extent elements of the global order. Presently, the threat of China is leading India to build much closer ties to the West. But in the medium to long term, India is likely to be as complex a challenge for Western powers as China has been.
9DL: The US-China relationship has continued to deteriorate, despite a reportedly constructive conversation between their defence chiefs at the Shangri-La Dialogue last year. What do you think US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to China accomplished and what can we expect in US-China relations in the coming months?
JC: The China-US relationship is in a curious place. On the one hand, ties could improve a little more this year, albeit from a low base. The Blinken and Yellen visits have calmed matters. The diplomatic calendar is free of awkward elections and party meetings. There are also two upcoming international meetings — the G20 and APEC — at which Biden and Xi might meet. And in general, the record shows that when Biden and Xi talk, they make ties a little better. But the medium-term picture is still grim, marked by little communication and zero trust. Risks of deterioration could come through balloon-style accidents or the aftershocks of specific policy initiatives, like the US’ semiconductor export restrictions that went into effect on 7 October 2022. But I’d say the risks are that any short-term improvement in ties is unlikely to last without a more fundamental change in stance by both powers.
9DL: Earlier in June, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat urged the US and China to “step away from confrontation and conflict”. The ‘Little Red Dot’ must balance its significant economic ties with China against its growing security partnership with the US. How do you see Singapore positioning itself and its prospects in this great power rivalry?
JC: Singapore has close economic ties to both China and the US, and a close security relationship with the US. It therefore faces a challenging position in an era of deepening superpower rivalry. Back in 2019, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong used his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue to suggest a new modus vivendi for the two great powers. China would recognise the US as a legitimate regional power, while the US would recognise that China needed to be accommodated in the existing system. There is no sign of either happening, and it is notable that Singapore’s leadership now sounds much more downbeat about the region’s future. My sense is that Singapore will prepare for this future as best it can, by investing in its military and a broad array of international economic and security relationships as back-up, should the worst happen.
9DL: Indonesia recently hosted both the US and China (alongside 49 other nations including North and South Korea, and India and Pakistan) in rare joint naval exercises. How seriously do you take the view that it might play the role of ‘great broker’ to the region’s great rivals?
JC: Indonesia has the capacity to play such a role in Southeast Asia, but it currently shows few signs of doing so. President Joko Widodo did raise his international profile last year as the G20 chair, taking trips to Moscow and Kyiv. But the fundamental aim of their chairmanship remained inward investment, not power projection. Sometimes you hear other ASEAN members complain about Indonesia’s lack of leadership. But it is worth reflecting that in the future, when Indonesia has a president more focused on international affairs and more willing to throw their weight around, the rest of the region may not welcome it.
9DL: ASEAN is planning its first joint naval exercises in the South Natuna Sea this September. What do you make of the grouping’s efforts to navigate the US-China rivalry, and what does this exercise mean for the future of regional security cooperation?
JC: ASEAN has already moved these first-ever joint drills to a location farther from waters claimed by China. There can be few better indications of the ultra-cautious approach the regional bloc has and will take to rising great power competition. ASEAN is presently weakened by internal divisions, most obviously over Myanmar but also over how to respond to Sino-US competition and the rise of potentially rival ‘minilateral’ groupings like the Quad. So, the bloc finds itself in an odd position. On the one hand, it is ever more insistent, in the name of ASEAN centrality, that pan-regional security issues be funnelled through its institutions. But as a bloc, it is ever-less able to take a view on what the answers to those issues should be.
9DL: As the Shangri-La Dialogue becomes more government/Track-I focused, there seems to be less room for informal and non-governmental exchanges. How can a growing Shangri-La Dialogue balance these two aspects in the long run?
JC: I’m not sure I’d agree with that assessment. It is true that the proportion of Shangri-La Dialogue attendees coming from governments has gone up fractionally — although this is mostly the result of more governments wanting to come. But the summit remains approximately half government and half non-government, including representatives from international organisations, universities, think tanks, and the media. We work hard to ensure that younger researchers are part of that mix. We also have a Southeast Asian Young Leaders' Programme, which brings in 40 mid-career experts and professionals from regional governments. As the convenor of the Dialogue, IISS is always open to specific new ideas to broaden the focus of the event. This year, for instance, we ran more of the smaller ‘special sessions’ to allow us to cover more issues in depth and bring more voices onto the agenda. But the role of non-government participants remains important and we do not see that changing.
9DL: The IISS is a leading British national security and defence think-tank globally, represented in Asia by its office in Singapore. What is its main mission in the region? Founded more than six decades ago, how is the organisation positioning itself today, especially given more vocal criticism of Western organisations (including media and NGOs, and so on) in many Asian countries today?
JC: The IISS describes its mission as producing independent, policy-relevant data about conflicts, however they happen to be caused. In this sense, the two big summits we run — the Shangri-La Dialogue in Asia, and the Manama Dialogue in the Middle East — are conduits to that aim. Convening is important in its own right. We do take that role seriously. But ultimately IISS is a research organisation and our aim is to produce world-class research which is useful to governments and scholars. To take one example, I’d say the new Myanmar Conflict Map, produced by our Singapore-based Southeast Asia Programme, fits this mission well. It combines data and analysis in innovative ways that we hope will be helpful to anyone trying to keep track of one of the region's most important conflict zones.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Biography
James Crabtree is the Executive Director of IISS-Asia and plays a leading role in organising the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and the IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Sherpa Meeting, as well as the IISS Fullerton Lecture series. Previously, he has been an Associate Professor of Practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and has worked for the Financial Times, most recently as Mumbai bureau chief. His best-selling 2018 book, The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India’s New Gilded Age was shortlisted for the FT / McKinsey book of the year.