Written by Leonardo Morreale
In a first clash, both China and Japan would be learning the most expensive lessons in real time, and the side that adapts faster, not the side with more hulls, would likely prevail.
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Written by Jing Ge
China’s controls are changing Japan’s political calculus: dependence on Chinese supply is no longer just a commercial risk but an economic-security vulnerability.
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Written by Edwin Akpotu
While diplomacy can reduce immediate risks, longer-term change depends on progress on Kashmir, reductions in cross-border violence, and stronger political support for engagement in both countries. This helps explain why periods of calm have repeatedly proven fragile despite considerable diplomatic effort.
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Written by Gilang Kembara
China’s island-building strategy in the South China Sea is not only reshaping the maritime order, but also provoking responses from regional claimants and external actors — whether through competition, imitation, or resistance — that unintentionally reinforce a practice-based order in which behaviour, rather than legal norms, determines outcomes.
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Written by Hunter Marston
The recent Russia-ASEAN Summit is only the latest example of a more diffuse and loosely organised world order, in which Washington plays a less central role, and its rivals are calling the shots. While this emerging multipolar order is currently fuelling regional anxieties of instability and conflict in Southeast Asia, it is likely to be the new normal.
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Written by Dr Paco Milhiet
Left unresolved, this deadlock carries its own strategic cost: renewed instability would further strain an already fragile economy, deter the investment needed to revive the nickel sector, and cast doubt on France’s capacity to manage its own territory.
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Written by You-Hao Lai and Ren-Wei Chang
Multinational cloud providers should be included to show that their Taiwan-based nodes can function when cut off from the overseas systems that normally control them. This requirement should be built into government procurement and critical infrastructure audits.
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Written by Marie Hiliquin
Europe, facing a myriad of diplomatic and economic pressures from China and lacking a unified centre, is increasingly engaging in self-containment on China policy — exemplified by Germany and the Czech Republic denying transit to Taiwan's president in April 2026.
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Written by Anuttama Banerji and Nayanima Basu
While the IPMSC marks a pivotal shift in US foreign policy strategy, particularly its military posture in the Pacific Ocean, this initiative, coupled with the strategic redesignation of USPACOM, underscores a clear intent to substantially bolster the US military’s presence in the region.
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Written by Debodipta Nandan
The Iran war, waged in the name of nuclear non-proliferation, has reinforced a lesson for Asia’s major powers: the protection the US-led order extends to them is conditional, granted or withheld at Washington’s discretion.
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As the United States faces growing democratic challenges at home, the second part of this series brings together leading experts to examine what this means for liberal democracy across the Indo-Pacific.
Their perspectives explore whether Washington's declining influence strengthens authoritarianism — or creates space for new, regionally rooted approaches to democratic governance.
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Written by Satoshi Ota
If the Indo-Japanese partnership is to fully reflect the principles associated with a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, development efforts should extend beyond strategic and economic considerations to encompass meaningful engagement with the historically marginalised communities of Northeast India.
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Written by Dr Anisa Heritage
While a consolidation strategy offers a sensible course correction, deterrence in the Indo-Pacific depends as much on regional confidence in long-term political commitments as it does on military capability.
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As the US marks its 250th anniversary, we invite several key experts to analyse how a changing US foreign policy and regional minilateralism are reshaping Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
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This month’s brief examines Taiwan–Lithuania relations, where shared experiences of external pressure have driven closer political and tech cooperation. Five years on from Vilnius hosting Taiwan’s Representative Office, the relationship remains strongest politically, while delivering more limited economic outcomes — highlighting the challenge of turning strategic alignment into tangible shared success. Alongside this, our regional review explores an Indo-Pacific defined by fragmentation and adaptation.
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In this episode, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian are joined by Dr. Huong Le Thu of the International Crisis Group for a timely discussion on how Southeast Asia is responding to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Together, they explore how the crisis is being interpreted across the region, from differing diplomatic positions and domestic political pressures to the growing impact of energy shocks and disruptions to global shipping routes.
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Written by Liselotte Odgaard
As US strategy increasingly prioritises the Indo-Pacific while delegating greater responsibility to allies, NATO-IP4 cooperation is likely to deepen selectively — focusing on functional areas such as technology, maritime security, and resilience — rather than evolving into a fully institutionalised global alliance framework.
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Written by Jing Ge
Taiwan’s undersea cables are not only a communications vulnerability; they are also a test of crisis discipline in the Indo-Pacific. In a Taiwan Strait crisis, a severed cable could be read as an accident, a coercive signal, or the opening move in a larger confrontation.
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