9DASHLINE — Articles

India pushing for defence modernisation as its focus shifts to the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Vivek Mishra

To effectively counter threats from both China and Pakistan, India needs to maintain a twin-domain focus, enhancing its capabilities in both the continental and maritime domains.

Khan versus the rest: What lies ahead for Pakistan

Written by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

The crisis can only end if the government realises that preventing people from exercising their right to vote will be counterproductive going forward.

Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Written by Nashalie De Silva and Thilina Panduwawala

It will be crucial to communicate the need for these tough reforms to voters and ensure that they benefit from the economic recovery.

South Asia9DLApril 17, 2023Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: what’s next?, 9dashline, Nashalie De Silva, Thilina Panduwawala, Sri Lanka, International Monetary Fund, IMF, IMF Executive Board, Extended Fund Facility, IMF Staff-Level Agreement, economic crisis, economic recovery, debt, Debt trap, debt restructuring, debt relief, creditor, China, Debtbook Diplomacy, debt trap diplomacy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India, Paris Club, China Development Bank (CDB), loans, COVID-19 pandemic, tax cut, USA, Export-Import Bank of China, moratorium, IMF Board Approval, IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), IMF Staff Report, Letter of Intent, inflation, unsustainable public debt, Zambia, Ecuador, low-income country, market-access country, fiscal consolidation, populist politics, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, technocrats, economic reforms, anti-corruption, Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act

Written by Bhumika Sharma

Given the lack of international consensus, a unique opportunity exists for India to address the protection gap in South Asia’s policy regime for climate migrants.

South Asia9DLApril 12, 20239DashLine, Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act, Bhumika Sharma, South Asia, climate vulnerability, climate change, floods in Pakistan, Pakistan, displacement, World Bank, climate-sensitive policies, climate-induced migration, internal displacement, Internally Displaced Persons, cross-border population movements, migration, climate-related risks, floods, salinity ingression, Bangladesh, India, climatically displaced persons, 2012 Nansen Initiative, Switzerland, Norway, humanitarian assistance, climate mobility, climate displacement contingencies, 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, 1967 Protocol, IDPs, Kampala Convention, international human rights law, United Nations Human Rights Committee, Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand, principle of non-refoulement, Kiribati, resource scarcity, economic insecurity, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Global Warming, UN IPCC, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), conflict, droughts, erratic rainfall, seasonal labour migration, income diversification, rising sea levels, cross-border transhumance arrangements, West Africa, Asian Development Bank, West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Sundarbans Delta, trafficking, human trafficking, slavery, Nepal, Terai, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, seasonal migration, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, Palk Strait, humanitarian visas, relocation, resettlement, 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act

The Adani Group and India’s foreign policy

Written by Pranesh HP

India ought to ensure that it does not lose domestic integrity to corporate influence while chasing economic goals abroad, creating negative downstream implications for its foreign policy.

South Asia9DLMarch 31, 20239dashline, The Adani Group and India’s foreign policy, PRANESH HP, Adani Group, Hindenburg Research, Haifa, market value, South Asia, China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, state capital, private sector buy-in, India, Chinese foreign investments, multinational corporation, Gautam Adani, Kanti Bajpai, Modi, Prime Minister Modi, host nations, Chinese influence, Unsustainable debt, Chinese loans and investments, debt-trap diplomacy, Sri Lanka, Hambantota Port, protest, domestic factors, Shanakiyan Rasamanickam, Chinese debt, international investors, Indian state-run companies, poverty, weak infrastructure, infrastructure diplomacy, foreign investment portfolio, mass privatisation, Colombo Port, Rajapaksa government, Sri Lankan East Container project, Ceylon Electricity Board, Bangladesh, energy crisis, coal power plants, electricity, Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Tim Buckley, Carmichael coal mine, RN Bhaskar, crony capitalism, domestic integrity, corporate influence, The Adani Group and India’s foreign policy

Bite the hand that fed you: Imran Khan’s populist challenge for the military

Written by Marcus Andreopoulos

Out of office, Khan is proving to be a relentless source of pressure, first for Bajwa and now for Munir. Khan has accused the military of holding the country back during a time of economic and humanitarian catastrophe.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 22, 20239DashLine, Bite the hand that fed you: Imran Khan’s populist challenge for the military, Marcus Andreopoulus, Pakistan, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), elections, military, tensions with India, Taliban, Afghanistan, Durand Line, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, Islamabad, military aid, Washington, united states, Beijing, Imran Khan, populism, populist rhetoric, Russia, mafia media, general election of 2018, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan Muslim League (N), General Pervez Musharraf, 1999 military coup, Sharif and Bhutto Zardari dynasties, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), domestic policy, defence, security, and foreign policy, civilian government, financial crisis, military budget, celebrity politicians, Donald Trump, anti-establishment statements, corruption, political elite, cult of personality, us versus them, minority rights, equality, Islamic welfare state, geo-economics, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), mob lynchings, blasphemy laws, primacy of the military, Chief Minister of Punjab Aleem Khan, military’s intelligence wing (ISI), Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, conspiracy, Arshad Sharif, United States Capitol

2023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?

9DASHLINE asks several experts how they assess the prospects for political and economic recovery in 2023 after the turbulence of last year.

South Asia9DLFebruary 2, 20232023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?, 9DashLine, Sri Lanka, economic crisis, anti-government protests, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, economic recovery, RAJNI GAMAGE, Unsustainable debt, balance of payment challenges, bankrupt, foreign debt obligations, Mass protests, World Bank, poverty, IMF, tax reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms, geopolitics, balancing game, India, Japan, Western powers, China, debt restructuring, democracy, police surveillance, arrests, political opposition, emergency laws, military, rule of law, ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKARA, Rajapaksas, powder keg, people’s uprising, Ranil Wickremasinghe, iron fist, Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), economic hardship, law and order, Ukraine war, oil prices, Colombo, financial assistance, political-economic crisis, internal and external geopolitical shocks, BHAGYA SENARATNE, currency default, youth-driven protests, Economic stability, political stability, popular mandate, legitimate president, Extended Fund Facility (EFF), inflation, accountability, attitudinal change

India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?

Written by Manali Kumar

With the next round of parliamentary elections scheduled for the summer of 2024, Modi is already in campaign mode, and the G20 presidency has all but been declared a success.

South Asia9DLJanuary 26, 2023India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?, 9DashLine, Manali Kumar, India, G20, Bali Summit, emerging economies, debt crises, global economic and financial governance, war in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Poland, Indonesia, food and energy security, climate crisis, post-Covid economic recession and inflationary crisis, inflation, recession, New Delhi, One Earth, One Family, One Future, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s G20 presidency, Global South, ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE), disaster risk reduction and resilience, economic crime, green hydrogen, climate financing, loss and damage fund, COP27, cryptocurrency, regulation, Bali declaration, US, Reserve Bank of India, dollarisation, tax evasion, money laundering, protectionism, sustainable development, empowering women, Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, Russia’s aggression, neutrality, Russian oil, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, sanctions, peace agreement, COVID-19 pandemic, China-US rivalry, diplomacy, re-election

2023: Where is Pakistan heading?

2022 was a difficult year for Pakistan: A humanitarian crisis sparked by devastating floods, the assassination attempt against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and a faltering economy. Growing political instability also prompted US President Joe Biden to call Pakistan one of the most dangerous countries in the world, characterising it as “nuclear weapons without cohesion”.

2023: Myanmar’s prospects for peace

With state of emergency set to end at the end of January and the military junta pledging to hold general elections by August 2023, 9DASHLINE asks experts what we should expect from the upcoming elections in Myanmar and whether there is any prospect for peace in the country.

Editor's Picks, South Asia9DLJanuary 9, 20239dashline, 2023: Myanmar’s prospects for peace, Nicola Williams, Ian Chong, Hunter Marston, Abigail Chen, Sreeradha Datta, Myanmar Coup, Myanmar's junta, Myanmar coup, military coup, state of emergency, National Unity Government, NUG, track-one negotiation process, ethnic resistance organisations, political strategies, military strategies, legitimacy, armed groups, general election, free and fair elections, National League for Democracy, NLD, opposition politicians, political prisoners, violence, reconciliation, peace, peace process, Union Solidarity and Development Party, USDP, Shan National League for Democracy, SNLD, People’s Defence Forces, State Administration Council, SAC, party boycotts, domestic resistance, diplomatic repercussions, ASEAN, five-point consensus, ASEAN envoy, malaysia, geopolitical interests, military leaders

Pakistan’s fatiguing interest in the IMF reform program

Written by Asad Ejaz Butt

While Pakistan does not have any alternate short-term options other than returning to the IMF, it can consider structural reforms, like targeted subsidies and rationalisation of current expenditure through fiscal prudence and better management of state resources.

South Asia9DLDecember 19, 20229dashline, Pakistan’s Fatiguing Interest in the IMF Reform Program, Asad Ejaz Butt, Pakistan, South Asian Voices, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Islamabad, IMF’s Pakistan program, economy, economic crisis, floods, flash floods, macro-fiscal stability, Ishaq Dar, Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, fiscal discipline, IMF headquarters, self-sufficiency, Washington, extended fund facility (EFF), staff-level agreement, fiscal and external imbalances, procyclical, economic indicators, account and fiscal deficits, long-term structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, bail-out, loan, loans, macroeconomic stability, commercial bank, banking, Imran Khan, PTI government, PTI, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), nudge, Fiscal and current account deficits, economic collapse, policy rate, monetary tightening prescription, tax, tax revenues, currency, devaluation, free-market and laissez-faire economics, cash, mortgage financing, inflation, business, fiscal deficits, expenditure, debt, debt servicing payments, rupee, rupee devaluation, exports, imports, remittances, oil imports, foreign exchange flexibility, subsidies, donor, donor and IMF fatigue, World Bank, Sri Lanka

Jammu and Kashmir: Living with violence along the border

Written by Deep Pal

For locals as well as security agencies, the current ceasefire, without resolving underlying issues, is temporary at best. This is evident in the fact that in over 18 months without CFVs, permanent security structures along the border have not been dismantled.

South Asia, In Focus9DLDecember 15, 20229DashLine, Jammu and Kashmir: Living with violence along the border, Deep Pal, Arnia, Jammu and Kashmir, ceasefire, Line of Control (LoC), India, Pakistan, 2003 ceasefire agreement, ceasefire violation (CFV), violence, International Border (IB), casualties, Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Poonch, Rajouri, Baramulla, Kupwara, health, education, United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), cross-border violence, firing, shelling, mortar fire, landmines, civilians, critical infrastructures, school, farmland, evacuation, economic distress, displacement, students, agriculture, horticulture, handicrafts, mines, bunkers, Pahadis, Gujjars, fencing, fence, Médecins Sans Frontières, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, substance dependence and abuse, investment, military, security, revocation of Article 370 in 2019, Indian government, Indian Army, crop loss, livestock, compensation for victims, border communities, empowerment, entrepreneurship, employment, cross-LoC trade, Border Area Development Programme (BADP), development projects, Sadbhavana, military-civic action programme, health camps, veterinary check-ups, surgeries, vaccinations, drug de-addiction sessions, career guidance talks, technical training camps

What’s next for Bangladeshi politics?

Written by Ali Riaz

The escalating face-off between the Bangladeshi government and the opposition will likely lead to heightened violence in the coming months, further persecution of critics by the government, and the potential weakening of the ruling party’s grip over the situation.

South Asia9DLNovember 24, 20229DashLine, What’s next for Bangladeshi politics?, Ali Riaz, Bangladesh, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP, Bangladesh Awami League, BAL, political rallies, political volatility, general strikes, public demonstrations, opposition parties, transport strikes, rallies, anti-government demonstrations, elections, economic crisis, political dissent, price hikes, fuel price hikes, trade deficit, rolling blackouts, national grid failure, fuel shortages, wage cuts, rigged elections, human rights, human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, UN Human Rights Council, Michelle Bachelet, US Treasury, sanctions, Rapid Action Battalion, RAB, persecution of opposition activists, surveillance capacity, encrypted messages, Telegram, Digital Security Act, DSA, CII, Election Commission, Gaibandha, Electronic Voting Machines, EVMs, CSOs, Taka 8711 crore, VVPAT

Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China

Written by Marina Rudyak

Precisely because China is the world’s largest bilateral creditor, and many of its borrowers face the risk of excessive debt, it matters to get things right in the analysis of lender-borrower relations.

South Asia9DLNovember 21, 20229DashLine, Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China, Marina Rudyak, Sri Lanka, IMF, International Monetary Fund, China, Debt trap, Debt Trap, debt trap diplomacy, Debt Trap Diplomacy, Foreign Debt, Chinese debt restructuring, debt-trap diplomacy, Hambantota Port, Hambantota, Hambantota debt-trap, Deborah Brautigam, Brahma Chellenay, geostrategic, China Merchants Holding, Reuters, Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake, Ravi Karunanayake, loans, foreign loans, Harvard, US State Department, Debtbook Diplomacy, 2018 US National Defence Strategy, economic coercion, US Vice President Mike Pence, Mike Pence, predatory lending, debt diplomacy, China Eximbank, international sovereign bonds (ISBs), international sovereign bonds, ISBs, BRI, Belt and Road, Belt and Road Initiative, Umesh Moramudali, Thilina Panduwawala, default, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s civil war, global financial crisis of 2007-2008, global financial crisis, Rajapaksa government, Ranil Wickremesinghe, World Bank, Public and Public Guaranteed (PPG) debt, PPG, state-owned enterprises, social credit system, creditor, debitor, lender, borrower, India, Japan, G20 Common Framework, middle-income country, Covid-19

Building a case for disaster diplomacy in South Asia

Written by Apoorva Jain

South Asia is increasingly facing threats from natural, technological, and complex disasters. Meanwhile, coordination failure is turning natural disasters into catastrophes. Disaster aid and relief can be an effective diplomatic tool in the region.

South Asia9DLNovember 1, 20229DashLine, Building a case for disaster diplomacy in South Asia, APOORVA JAIN, Pakistan, flood, flood-borne diseases, international aid, international organisations, Bangladesh, India, United States, China, Turkey, South Asia, regional mechanisms, natural disasters, Afghanistan, Himalayan belt, earthquakes, glacial lake outburst floods, Dudh Koshi sub-basin, Nepal, Pho Chu sub-basin, Bhutan, tropical cyclone, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, climate change, flash floods, urban centres, agricultural lands, droughts, desertification, tropical storms, tsunami, Kosi flooding, Kashmir earthquake, Indian Ocean tsunami, humanitarian assistance, institutional frameworks, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, SAARC, sustainable development, environment, Male Declaration, Hyogo Framework of Action, HFA, Dhaka, SAARC Disaster Management Centre, SDMC, New Delhi, South Asia Disaster Knowledge Network, SADKN, South Asia Digital Vulnerability Atlas, SADVA, SAARC Food Bank, South Asian Annual Disaster Management Exercise, SAADMEx, GSAT-9, South Asia satellite, disaster diplomacy, emergency routes, disaster resilience, disaster mitigation, disaster management, Central Emergency Response Fund, CERF, World Food Programme, WFP, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, UNOCHA, Coalition for Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure, CDRI, Climate Action Summit, European Union-South Asia Capacity Building for Disaster Risk Management Program, EU-SAR DRM Program

South Asia must proactively prepare to face climate change

Written by Manali Kumar

South Asian countries would do well to finally set aside their mutual animosities and start developing transnational and regional mechanisms to adapt to climate change and recover from disasters.

South Asia9DLOctober 20, 20229DashLine, South Asia must proactively prepare to face climate change, Manali Kumar, South Asia, climate change, natural disaster, flood, flooding, Pakistan, humanitarian disaster, humanitarian crisis, health crisis, Bangladesh, Nepal, landslides, India, heatwave, heat wave, drought, Indo-Pacific, Africa, Europe, disaster-prone, hydrometeorological, storms, water scarcity, food insecurity, poverty, weather disaster, Asian Development Bank, cyclone Amphan, displacement, internal displacement, internal migration, sea level rise, climate migration, climate migrants, megapolises, Delhi, Mumbai, pollution, environmental degradation, cyclones, earthquakes, population growth, urbanisation, population density, disaster preparedness and relief, urban planning, urban development, local ecology, monsoon season, climate adaptive, resilient, multilateral humanitarian assistance and disaster relief mechanisms, regional cooperation, Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), Myanmar, IORA Action Plan 2017-2021, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), SAARC Convention on Cooperation on Environment, Thimphu Statement on Climate Change, Inter-governmental Expert Group on Climate Change, United Nations, World Bank, relief, China, US, UK, EU, Germany, extreme climate events, GDP, COP27, Common But Differentiated Responsibility, Global South, 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developed countries

What lies beneath the iceberg, delving deeper into #GotaGoHome

Written by Nathasha Fernando

Wickremesinghe is therefore in a clear dilemma as he is not only expected to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund for a sovereign debt bailout, debt restructuring, and economic recovery plan but to also appease Sri Lanka’s minorities and their broader calls for accountability.

Press freedoms in Pakistan — as polarisation deepens, journalism pays the price

Written by Furqan Khan

Targeting and punishing dissenting voices threatens to define Pakistan’s political culture. However, repressing dissenting voices is a self-inflicted wound.

South Asia9DLSeptember 13, 20229DashLine, Press freedoms in Pakistan — as polarization deepens, journalism pays the price, Furqan Khan, Pakistan, press freedom, Free Press, journalism, journalists, media, media freedom, Imran Khan, anti-terrorism act, torture, police, Shehbaz Gill, military, polarisation, Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, PTM, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, opposition, democracy, blackout, violence, Pakistan’s National Assembly, Prevention of Electronic Crimes Bill (2015), internet, censorship, Hamid Mir, Cyril Almeida, Dawn Leaks, Dawn, Pakistan Media Development Authority (PMDA), Pakistan Media Development Authority, PMDA, Twitter, treason, Reporters Without Borders (RSF), Reporters Without Borders, RSF, World Press Freedom Index, Shehbaz Sharif, Imran Riaz Khan, Ayaz Mir, ARY News, Salman Iqbal, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Pakistan People’s Party, PPP, Farhat Ullah Babar, military establishment, Daniel Bastard, elite, Jang Group’s Geo TV, Jang Group, Geo TV, Maryam Nawaz Sharif, freedom of expression, repression