Bite the hand that fed you: Imran Khan’s populist challenge for the military
Bite the hand that fed you: Imran Khan’s populist challenge for the military
WRITTEN BY MARCUS ANDREOPOULOS
22 February 2023
At the end of November 2022, after six years at the helm of the single most powerful institution in Pakistan, General Qamar Javed Bajwa was officially succeeded by General Asim Munir as the country’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS). Munir took office at a precarious time for the country, as the civilian government prepares for contentious elections in 2023 and as the military grapples with an array of strategic challenges beyond the usual tensions with India. To the west, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan remains unwilling to recognise the disputed border along the Durand Line, refusing to yield to the demands of the group’s military benefactors that enabled its return to power and creating tensions along the border as a result. Internally, the Taliban offshoot in Pakistan, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has called for renewed attacks throughout the country, operating out of bases in Afghanistan — a direct consequence of the rift between Islamabad and the Taliban. Elsewhere, Pakistan has enjoyed yet another instalment of military aid from Washington, while the US has identified the country as a key recipient and point of projection for Beijing’s political, military, and economic might. Yet, the most urgent and immediate threat facing Munir and the coalition government is the populist rhetoric of Imran Khan.
In his final media appearance as COAS, Bajwa delivered a scathing condemnation of Khan’s campaign of “mass propaganda and meticulously crafted false narratives” that had been directed against the military since his ousting from government in April 2022. It is ironic, however, that Bajwa should now take issue with Khan’s behaviour. After all, conspiratorial ramblings had been a mainstay of the former cricketer’s political armoury, most notoriously deployed to accuse the United States of toppling his government for not toeing the line on Russia. Khan had also utilised other pages from the populist playbook to much political joy, vilifying the “mafia” media and amassing far-reaching support through promises that were unlikely to be fulfilled. The most recent unfounded allegations against the military by Khan and his cult-like following are unsurprising. It was a calculation that, for Khan, offered the best route back to political salvation.
An awkward alliance
The general election of 2018 gave Bajwa his first opportunity to shape domestic politics in Pakistan since becoming COAS two years prior. The previous five years had seen the return of Nawaz Sharif, for his third term as prime minister with the Pakistan Muslim League (N). A career politician, whose last stint as leader of the country had been abruptly ended by General Pervez Musharraf’s 1999 military coup, Sharif would again be ousted before the end of his term in 2017. Watching over the political landscape, the military establishment was determined to prevent the continuation of ineffective rule dominated by the Sharif and Bhutto Zardari dynasties.
Out of office, Khan is proving to be a relentless source of pressure, first for Bajwa and now for Munir. Khan has accused the military of holding the country back during a time of economic and humanitarian catastrophe.
With a small pool of suitable — and malleable — candidates available, Bajwa turned to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and its leader, Imran Khan. Through covert interference, the military ensured that Khan emerged victorious from the 2018 election. In return, Khan would simply have to maintain the status quo that has existed in Pakistan since time immemorial: the military stays out of menial domestic policy, so long as the civilian government stays out of the country’s defence, security, and foreign policy. This dynamic allows the civilian government to absorb the problems facing Pakistan, minimising the impact they have on the army. This is why, even in times of financial crisis, the country’s military budget is rarely cut.
Initially, Khan was willing to oblige. Part of the most recent cohort of celebrity politicians, Khan had always appeared more interested in growing his personal brand. Much like Donald Trump, anti-establishment statements, such as promising to eradicate corruption within the political elite, created a cult of personality and a strong sense of ‘us versus them’ amongst his base. An effective campaigner, Khan would also reach out to all sections of Pakistani society, often in a contradictory way. To one portion of the electorate, Khan was a staunch defender of equality and minority rights, to another he was a provocateur, blaming victims of rape for not veiling themselves sufficiently. When the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021, Khan said they had “broken the shackles of slavery” winning him plaudits at home but causing anger in the West.
Policy-wise, dreams of an ‘Islamic welfare state’ were never realised, despite assurances from Khan that it could be achieved, and a pivot towards ‘geo-economics’ proved unfeasible given Pakistan’s dire economic situation. Khan also made uncomfortable pacts with extremist movements, including the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), whose widespread support he deemed useful when it was not bringing major cities to a standstill or carrying out mob lynchings in defence of the country’s blasphemy laws. Khan even removed the TLP’s status as a proscribed terrorist group when he identified its electoral value to his own party. In true populist fashion, mass adoration and headline-grabbing trumped all else for Khan, often to the detriment of the country and its people.
Irrespective of whether his policies had any substance, Khan became an immensely popular leader; however, such popularity led to his eventual downfall. Swept up in his own support, the former prime minister felt powerful enough to challenge the primacy of the military, which had already begun to grow concerned at his ineffective governance. In his own words, Khan states that tensions emerged between his government and the military after his refusal to appoint Bajwa’s choice for Chief Minister of Punjab, Aleem Khan, on the grounds that he was embroiled in a corruption scandal. Yet, Khan’s fate was sealed with another, more serious, act of defiance. On 6 October 2021, the head of the military’s intelligence wing (ISI), Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, was removed from his position in an army reshuffle. Hameed had allegedly been the key architect of Khan’s electoral victory in 2018 and, as a result, the then-prime minister attempted to block the decision. This flagrant insubordination was the final straw for Bajwa, who set the wheels in motion for Khan’s removal from power. However, for populists, silent and dignified exits from public life are a rarity. Much to Munir’s dismay, his predecessor has created a problem that the Pakistani military neither fully understands nor has a solution to yet.
A new kind of challenge
There is an irony in the military selecting an individual that could, plausibly, lead to its own downfall. In the past, the reverse has often been the case. In 1976, then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto appointed General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq as COAS, only to be deposed — and later hanged — by Zia the following year. Similarly, Nawaz Sharif had appointed General Pervez Musharraf in 1998 before facing the same fate as Bhutto in 1999, albeit without losing his life. Having tacitly played a major role in installing Khan at the summit of Pakistani politics and giving him the platform to build on his then-already burgeoning cult of personality, the shoe is on the other foot for the military.
Out of office, Khan is proving to be a relentless source of pressure, first for Bajwa and now for Munir. Khan has accused the military of holding the country back during a time of economic and humanitarian catastrophe. Meanwhile, supporters of the now-leader of the opposition are rallying around the notion that the army was behind his downfall. The failed attempt on Khan’s life at the start of November has only reinforced this populist narrative. Khan continues to build on this momentum, hosting rallies attended by thousands of adoring supporters — both new and longstanding — much to the government’s and military’s frustration. Unphased by the threat he is facing, Khan has his sights placed solely on Sharif, Munir, and the institutions they represent, turning away from his old conspiracy that the United States had played a role in toppling his government and “importing” its replacement.
In opposition, Khan’s populism represents a threat to the Pakistani military and to its relationship with the country’s population. Eliminating critics of the establishment is not unheard of in Pakistan and even has precedent in recent history. In October 2022, Arshad Sharif, a Pakistani journalist and outspoken critic of the army, was killed in Nairobi, with allegations that the ISI were behind the plot. While we will likely never know for sure if the military orchestrated the failed assassination of Khan, the military establishment should take some solace in the fact that it failed. Khan’s populism has built him a formidable following throughout Pakistan and his movement continues to win hearts and minds as a result of his political fate. The whole world watched on in disbelief as Donald Trump’s most radical zealots stormed the United States Capitol on 6 January 2021, following his election defeat. In Pakistan, an impulsive decision from the military establishment could make a martyr of Khan, inviting far more serious repercussions than those seen in Washington. The TLP have already shown their ability to instigate mob violence on demand, and one can be certain that the cult of Imran Khan wields even more power than that.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Marcus Andreopoulos is a senior research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation. He is also a researcher and instructor for the Global Threats Advisory Group at NATO. Marcus is a producer for NATO’s podcast series DEEP Dive. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Imniazi001.