Written by Frances Mangosing
The way things are going, we can expect Duterte to ramp up nationalist rhetoric over the next few months to gather voter support for his chosen successor. We have seen this game before.
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Written by Kalvin Fung
ASEAN members such as Indonesia might find themselves mired in a quagmire: recognising a regime lambasted for its terrible human rights record might save ASEAN unity but could draw further condemnation from the West and international media; rejecting the junta might jeopardise regional unity and delay the long-awaited COC.
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Written by James Borton and Lucio Blanco Pitlo III
Sustained domestic pressure, efforts by other littoral states to align their claims with UNCLOS, and a growing chorus of countries referencing the award in their note verbales strengthen the hands of leaders who may come out more assertively on the issue.
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Written by Ong Kian Ming
ASEAN must also be willing to push the envelope when it comes to economic diplomacy in a manner that would strengthen the unity of the grouping and safeguard the interests of its members.
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Written by Nivedita Kapoor
In the long term, Russia has the potential to become a regional energy supplier as well as provide connectivity via the Arctic Northern Sea Route (instead of via the Straits of Malacca), which could mitigate the contradictions in the SCS.
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Written by Ryan Lucas
Too often, foreign policy analysts have focused principally on the hard power component of China’s ambitions in the South China Sea. This security-centric approach, while important, risks downplaying a critical piece of China’s South China Sea strategy in the post-pandemic era.
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Written by Murray Heibert
Beijing is unlikely to step up its role in Myanmar unless there is a sudden and massive outpouring of refugees across the border into China or opponents of the junta begin threatening Chinese infrastructure in the country.
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Written by Jay L Batongbacal
Manila must resume its original policy of standing by international law, reinforce its alliance with the US and strategic partnerships with middle powers like Japan and Australia, and deepen friendships with other external parties such as the UK and the EU.
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Written by Collin Koh
For Southeast Asian countries that also operate coastguards, now is the time to review the need for navies to relinquish certain tasks that coastguards might perform more effectively. This is especially the case where capacity (quantity) is more critical than having the most hi-tech warships bristling with weapons performing constabulary missions that simply require a presence.
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Written by James Borton
Despite significant oceanographic advances and a continuous flow of ocean data, marine research has failed to ameliorate the competing South China Sea claims nor navigate the sustainable stewardship of ocean resources.
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Written by Andrew Chubb
This brief, broad-brush picture emerges from the Maritime Assertiveness Times Series (MATS) project, which is compiling corresponding data on other states in the South China Sea, as well as an East China Sea series. Data collection and coding is still in progress, but once complete, the project will enable us to ask an array of new questions on the dynamics of maritime disputes in East Asia.
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Written by Zachary Abuza
Then there is the issue over what vaccine people are getting: elites and wealthy states will dominate the highly effective vaccines by Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, while poorer people will have to make do with Chinese vaccines that have significantly lower efficacies.
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Written by Hadrien T. Saperstein
Thailand’s smaller-state space power approach will be unmatched to the strategic environment. The Royal Thai Air Force Space Operations Centre must, therefore, begin thinking about the way it could successfully transition from a user to actor in the space domain.
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Written by Trang Pham
The arguments made by the Philippines and Vietnam about the legal status of maritime features in the South China Sea are in line with the 2016 PCA Award; on the other hand, China has denied such an analysis and has continued to assert itself in the littorals through sheer force of will.
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Written by Anisa Heritage and Pak K Lee
The inherent contradictions between Trump’s America First strategy and the current calls for a coalition against China remain a sticking point. Trump has never attended an East Asia Summit, and his administration’s denigration of alliances has reduced American capacity to create a coalition of like-minded partners to support its position in the South China Sea.
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Written by Mateusz Chatys
ASEAN's ineffectiveness in managing the South China Sea dispute was best demonstrated by events immediately after the summit. Following the videoconference, the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) in Hainan announced naval manoeuvres near the Paracel Islands.
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Written by Drake Long
The new US policy should be viewed as one more part of a coordinated effort across multiple governments to push back against China’s claims with similar diplomatic approaches and language, emphasising UNCLOS and the 2016 PCA award specifically.
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Written by Yoichiro Sato
The United States has warned that any land reclamation of Scarborough Reef by China would trigger the US-Philippines mutual defence treaty. Thus, Washington seems to have set, for the first time, an explicit red line in the South China Sea.
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