In a nutshell, some commentaries suggested that while Biden would change the tone, he might not change the substance that much. I think this is largely what we have seen so far.
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On one hand, there is a China that is complex, runs on different drivers depending on the issue one is talking about and is often poor at communicating, or resentful that it needs to communicate and do things that it sees everyone else doing without the need to explain themselves.
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While Xi wishes to change the world order, he has yet to elucidate an attractive and comprehensive vision for an alternative. Xi’s entire conception of foreign affairs is to strip them of values (or at least liberal ones), rendering his worldview vacant of ideas that would woo others.
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The number of Chinese workers overseas created a new type of liability for Chinese policymakers because the political value of protecting the life of a citizen is vastly superior to that of, for example, ensuring the payment of a contract.
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In the past year or so there has been a big change in the way China’s political system is perceived in Europe. China’s actions with regard to several smaller European states like Sweden, Czech Republic, Lithuania, for example, have alerted publics to the political risks of close relations with Beijing.
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It is fair to generalise that most Indo-Pacific countries welcome the new style of European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, which is about partnership and cooperation, helping us consolidate the reality that this is a sea of many flags that no one power is entitled to dominate.
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Chris Ogden is a Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor in Asian Security at the University of St Andrews. His book China and India: Asia's Emergent Great Powers was published in April 2017.
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How was it possible that China could end up with a string of illegal military island bases in international waters on one of the world’s most pivotal trade routes without any real confrontation, without a single shot fired in anger? This reality defines the new balance of global power and China’s reach within Asia.
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Dr Aparna Pande is director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C.
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Kerry Brown is a Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute at King's College London. His latest book China (Polity Histories) was published in July 2020.
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