Yoshihide Suga and a 'Free and Open' Indo-Pacific
Yoshihide Suga and a ‘Free and Open’
Indo-Pacific
WRITTEN BY RUPAKJYOTI BORAH
19 October 2020
The recent meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in Tokyo saw Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga meet the foreign ministers of India, Australia, and the US, in what was his first face-to-face interaction with foreign dignitaries. It was only last month that the former Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe, announced his resignation due to ill-health. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has since gone through a leadership vote culminating with Mr Suga’s endorsement by the National Diet.
What does Yoshihide Suga mean for Japan-India relations?
First, it means New Delhi will have to work harder than before as it had developed a strong rapport with Shinzo Abe, ever since his first term in 2006. It was during this term that he delivered a landmark speech titled ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ wherein he noted that “the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and prosperity”.
Second, from his family’s side, former PM Abe was close to India in several ways. His maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was the first Japanese prime minister to visit India. Abe himself had been to India multiple times and it was under Abe that landmark initiatives like the Japan-India civilian nuclear deal took place. The civilian nuclear deal is deeply significant as Japan remains the only country to have suffered from the impact of nuclear bombings.
While it is highly unlikely that the new prime minister will go for a complete overhaul of Japanese foreign policy (especially in the field of Japan-India relations) there may be subtle changes.
Third, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had built up a personal camaraderie with India’s Narendra Modi. During Modi’s visit to Japan in October 2018 for the annual bilateral summit, Abe chose to invite him to his holiday home in the Yamanashi prefecture, a high honour for any visiting dignitary.
Fourth, for Abe, India was at the heart of many of his policy formulations for the Indo-Pacific which included policy initiatives such as the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy’, the Quad (Quadrilateral Initiative) and his Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond. With Abe at the helm, India and Japan came together in the Indo-Pacific in a way like never before. Japan joined the Malabar naval exercises as a permanent member in 2015, though the exercises originally started as a bilateral arrangement between the Indian and US navies.
While it is highly unlikely that the new prime minister will go for a complete overhaul of Japanese foreign policy (especially in the field of Japan-India relations) there may be subtle changes. For one, under the Suga administration, India may not figure as highly on the radar as had been the case with his predecessor. Besides, Suga may not share Abe’s worldview and his views towards India, however, in a positive development, Suga has already spoken by telephone with his Indian counterpart.
So — the way ahead?
First, it will be important for India to address any drift in the relationship and take necessary steps well in advance. At a time when China is on the offensive in border areas, Japan could be a very important partner. Also, the two countries have recently signed a logistics treaty, ACSA (Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement), which will allow for the sharing of resources between their respective defence forces. In the economic realm, ties still languish with the total amount of trade between the two countries standing at a surprisingly-low $17.6 billion in FY 2018-19 (compared to 2018, where bilateral trade with China stood at $95.5 billion and with the United States at $142 billion).
The annual summit between the two sides has also been delayed since last year when it was postponed due to the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) flare-up in the host city of Guwahati. A ‘virtual’ summit had been scheduled to take place earlier this month, but due to the sudden resignation of the former PM, these plans have also been put on hold for now. Be that as it may, New Delhi has its work cut out as it reaches out to the Suga administration. Nevertheless, India continues to collaborate with Japan on its membership bid (along with Germany and Brazil) as part of the so-called G4.
Irrespective of Japan’s change at the top, both countries have huge stakes in a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ and hence need to redouble their efforts to take the bilateral relationship to a new high.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is an Associate Professor at India’s Sharda University. His forthcoming book is titled ‘The Strategic Relations between India, the United States and Japan in the Indo-Pacific: When Three is Not a Crowd’. He has also authored two other books. He has also been a Visiting Fellow at the University of Cambridge, the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), Japan and the Australian National University. Image credit: Office of the Prime Minister of Japan/Twitter.