Resounding win for Ardern, but uncertainty about progressive change remains

20 October 2020

Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s internationally revered Prime Minister, grabbed a historic electoral victory last weekend, not merely affirming her position as leader of the country, but also steering her Labour Party to a full majority in New Zealand’s parliament. Adjectives such as ‘historic’ and ‘unprecedented’ get thrown around often on election nights, but they are warranted in this case. It is the first absolute majority for any political party under New Zealand’s current electoral system, which was instituted in 1993 to foster coalition-based governance. Labour’s electoral dominance is the best result for any New Zealand political party since 1951. Compared to the last election in 2017, the voter swing between the country’s two major parties — away from New Zealand’s ‘National Party’ — was the biggest ever, as was the margin between them (22 per cent).

To outsiders, Ardern’s whopping victory may seem unsurprising. Her global profile matches, and in most cases outshines, that of many other (mostly male) political figures around the world. She has become somewhat of an international beacon for empathetic, competent, knowledgeable, and nuanced leadership. Becoming a mother during her Prime Ministership, uniting a nation shocked by white supremacist and anti-immigrant terrorism, and clearly communicating her country through a global pandemic — all inspire admiration. International coverage of the election attributes Ardern’s victory to her government’s Coronavirus response.

For the rest of the world, similarly, this means that they can expect much the same from New Zealand’s foreign policy, which continues to balance its relationship with China and its Pacific connections. In many respects, New Zealand will continue to be considered, and consider itself, as a force of progress and innocent whimsy in world politics.

This was also the primary explanation given by her main electoral rival — National Party Leader Judith Collins — who maintained that the Prime Minister’s frequent press briefings over the last few months gave Ardern an unrivalled podium to attract popular approval. While such explanations certainly hold ground, other stories bear consideration as well.

An opposition in shambles

For one, the National Party itself, which recorded its second-worst voting result in history, has been mired in problems throughout Ardern’s tenure as Prime Minister – from political scandals involving personal misconduct to incompetence on Māori (indigenous) representation and economic policy to three(!) leadership contests in the last three years, two of which took place in the last five months. Many of those MPs who had shaped the party’s governing years (2008-2017) retired in the run-up to the election. And Judith Collins herself — known inter alia for ‘Dirty Politics’ and labelling herself ‘a woman of colour, the colour white’ — could not seem to stop herself from putting her foot in her mouth.

Such indications of a broadly and consistently inept opposition make it difficult to associate any grander political-ideological (re)directions with Ardern’s victory. Sure, we may see Saturday’s result, to which an estimated 82.5 per cent of New Zealand’s voters contributed, as a rejection of the National Party’s proposed policies for ‘more roads, less tax, and small public service’. Similarly, New Zealand’s most overtly populist party (and Ardern’s former coalition partner) NZ First failed to be re-elected completely. Yet, what New Zealanders voted for seems a lot less clear.

A centrist leader with a watered-down progressive agenda

If anything, Jacinda Ardern herself has remained remarkably coy about what new avenues she may steer the nation down. Her party in fact hardly put out any real policy proposals during the election campaign, banking on Ardern’s (and her government’s) track record to convince voters to extend the governing mandate. Yet, over the last three years that track record has been at least partially characterised by much watered down (or fully dissolved) versions of what were considered to be progressive and necessary policies on housing, tax reform, urban travel infrastructure, and climate change mitigation. Ardern very deliberately refused to openly advocate — one way or another — on the Referendum on Cannabis Legislation and Control Bill that was also on the ballot last weekend.

Ardern’s victory speech on Saturday reflected her ostensibly centrist disposition. In measured fashion, she lamented “that people had lost the ability to see another’s point of view”, claiming that New Zealand remained “a nation too small to lose sight of other people’s perspectives”, and stressing her aim to “govern for all New Zealanders — including those who may not have voted Labour before”.

Praiseworthy sentiments no doubt, but here might also lie her biggest challenge. Her victory particularly in rural and conservative areas is testament to her many talents and virtues, which include bringing people together. Her success in managing COVID-19 was also based on the trust she has built with New Zealanders over the previous years. Yet now she must find a way to translate her massive electoral win — very much based on non-traditional labour voters — into the transformational agenda she allegedly still represents.

In this regard, other results from Saturday night should not be discounted. The libertarian ACT Party, generally operating to the right of National, won a record number of seats (10) since its first contest in 1996. The Māori Party, running in New Zealand’s special indigenous electorates yet absent from parliament for the last three years, won back its place — a win that reflects Ardern’s somewhat lacklustre record on the country’s indigenous rights issues. On the left, the Green Party, which partnered with Ardern in forming a government last time, added two seats to its tally this time (10). Here, Greens prodigy and ‘OK Boomer’-proclaimer Chlöe Swarbrick’s success is especially remarkable — she is the first candidate ever to win her electorate over both major New Zealand party electorate candidates.

Hence, status quo politics does not constitute a risk-free strategy for Ardern’s second term. Ardern’s piecemeal policy delivery may have been augmented by a more conservative coalition partner (NZ First) — a constraint she no longer has. Despite her majority, Ardern may opt to enter a coalition with the Green Party. With 74 seats, such a (nominally) left block of New Zealand’s parliament has never been as powerful as today. It is important to note that at the time of writing this piece, 17 per cent of the votes remain to be counted — special and overseas votes that usually reflect a left-leaning stance. Yet, it remains to be seen whether Ardern will enact a left-leaning policy platform, and if beneficiaries, the homeless, renters, workers, or Māori will experience meaningful change in New Zealand. More likely, she will work in the interest of ‘the centre’ that has given her such immense political capital.

More of the same?

For the rest of the world, similarly, this means that they can expect much the same from New Zealand’s foreign policy, which continues to balance its relationship with China and its Pacific connections. In many respects, New Zealand will continue to be considered, and consider itself, as a force of progress and innocent whimsy in world politics. New Zealand’s elections featured a Prime Minister’s fiancé serving journalists food and some nice smelling hand sanitiser. The election night images of Party Headquarters filled with cheering crowds, made possible through a 1-month postponement of the election itself, may strike a cognitive dissonance among those still under stringent COVID restrictions in the rest of the world. New Zealand’s parliament will now carry a nearly 50-50 gender balance, and it will have the highest percentage of queer representation anywhere else on earth.

Bolstered by her sensational victory, Jacinda Ardern will remain an excellent personification of this image. As far as centrist politics goes, she at least seems to portray a way forward for New Zealand beyond early-21st century tropes of ‘austerity’, ‘business efficiency’, and ‘personal responsibility’. Yet, with the serious economic turmoil awaiting New Zealand in the wake of COVID-19, it seems unlikely that she would use this crisis ‘as an opportunity to reconfigure the country’s political economy and fulfil the promise of transformation’ that continues to define her persona. When Ardern took up the role of Labour party leader — later Prime Minister — she spoke about dismantling neoliberal policies that she felt no longer served the country. Yet, three years later, she seems very far from seriously working to do so.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Dr Lucas Knotter is a Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Groningen (Netherlands), and a former Lecturer in Politics at Massey University (New Zealand). He is currently working on a book about de facto states. Image Credit: Flickr/Nato

Pacific9DLOctober 20, 2020New Zealand, China, Covid-19, Jacinda Ardern