Australian election 2022 — security, foreign policy and climate change

20 May 2022

On 21 May, Australians are heading to the polls for the 2022 Federal Election. The election comes at a critical time for Australia. 2022 has seen catastrophic flooding, borders re-open after long COVID-19 closures, rising costs of living, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and an increasingly unstable Indo-Pacific region. Like elections globally since COVID, this election feels more high-stakes than previous ones.

Since November last year, the Australian election has been described as a “khaki election”, seeking to draw on the conservative Liberal Party's historical track record as the national security party. The khaki election is the culmination of a Scott Morrison foreign policy strategy that has placed national security and defence at the heart of Australia's international relations. Consecutive cuts to aid and diplomacy have seen Australia's place in the world shrink, as the broader Indo-Pacific region strives to manage US-China competition and climate change issues. The security pact between China and the Solomon Islands has exposed the cracks in the government's strategy, allowing the opposition Labor Party to draw upon their experience in diplomacy, regionalism, and climate change.

National security and foreign policy

National security and foreign policy are broadly bipartisan issues in Australia. While itself a British settler colony in the Indo-Pacific, Australian history has been marked by racist immigration policies and concern of invasion. A recent poll indicates that 73 per cent of Australians see “China as a security threat”. This has seen Australia turn to western allies for security, as seen with ANZUS and more recently the AUKUS Agreement. While support for the US Alliance is decreasing among the younger generations, it remains a key pillar in Australia's security and foreign policy architecture. Because of this, both parties have campaigned on similar national security strategies focusing on border security, increased defence capabilities, and being tough on China.

If the Labor Party is elected, the Indo-Pacific will likely see a more proactive and engaged Australia that centres regionalism and climate change at the heart of its foreign policy strategy.

Where the Liberal and Labor Party differ is their respective emphasis on regionalism. As a middle power with a strong tradition of multilateralism, Australia has embedded itself into Indo-Pacific institutions, including ASEAN, EAS, APEC, and the PIF. Australia sits between two worlds — its historical relations with the West and its geographic location in the Indo-Pacific. While the Liberal Party has turned to western allies for support, the Labor Party is leaning into the region. Labor leader Anthony Albanese has outlined "elevating our engagement with the countries of Southeast Asia", which includes an AUD 200 million climate and infrastructure partnership with Indonesia. Labor hopes to strengthen ties with India, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Vietnam. Hoping to shape Australian foreign policy around a new lens of strategic thinking, the Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong has announced a First Nations foreign policy, which seeks to incorporate Indigenous understandings of power and governance into Australia’s strategic thinking. A Labor win is likely to see Australia more engaged with the region.

Amid this national security-focused election, it was announced that China and the Solomon Islands would be signing a bilateral security agreement. The agreement has received an enlarged focus in Australia because of the election, becoming a tit-for-tat amongst politicians. Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong has described the security pact as “the worst foreign policy blunder in the Pacific that Australia has seen since the end of World War II”. The Liberal Party has called out deputy Labor leader Richard Marles for "welcoming" increased Pacific presence in the Pacific, Morrison calling him a “Manchurian candidate”. As a result of the agreement, the Labor Party announced a new Pacific policy platform, 'Plan to Build a Stronger Pacific Family'. Labor's plan attempts to improve Pacific relations in the wake of the Liberal Party's Pacific step-up, which has been a letdown. Morrison's plans of a khaki election were meant to focus on the party's national security strengths, but instead, the China-Solomon Islands security agreement has exposed the cracks in its diplomacy.

On 13 May, Defence Minister Peter Dutton revealed that a Chinese surveillance ship had been seen 200 nautical miles off the coast of Western Australia, labelling it an “act of aggression”. The ship passed through Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which is legal Freedom of Navigation under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. As recently as November 2021, a Chinese naval ship passed through Australia’s EEZ, with Morrison saying the ship had “every right” to pass through. However, Dutton denies that he is playing politics by exploiting the event for the election. As I wrote last year, Australia's relationship with China "has become the sparing tool for domestic politics", increasingly so during the election. Dutton’s remarks form a predictable politicisation of an otherwise ordinary event. The Liberal party is seeking to improve public opinion on its national security capabilities after the Solomon Islands and China security deal.

The climate election

Furthermore, a sense of climate frustration has marked Morrison's leadership. His inaction during the 2020 bushfires, when the prime minister was holidaying in Hawaii as homes burnt, was especially notable. This year, there have been catastrophic floods in New South Wales and Queensland, with twenty-two lives lost, homes and infrastructure destroyed, and supply chain issues that caused national food shortages. At the time of writing, Queensland is again on flood alert. For Australia, climate change is a front-line issue. Most Australians see climate change as a critical threat. In the election, this climate frustration has manifested in the rise of teal independents, who are conservative candidates with climate change-focused platforms. The Australian Greens, Labor Party, and teal independents are campaigning for more climate action, with varying commitments to national security. For the Liberal Party, national and economic security is the priority.

Australia's climate inaction affects not just Australians. As the world's highest greenhouse gas emitter of coal per capita, these policies have global consequences. The Indo-Pacific will feel the effects of climate change first and hardest. Australia’s reputation as a “climate laggard” under Liberal governments has negatively affected its regional relationships. This is seen primarily in the Pacific, where Australia has been called out for its “weak” climate targets. Many have even blamed Australia's climate inaction for the Solomon Islands-China security agreement.

Biden’s climate-focused diplomacy has placed further pressure on Australia’s climate change apathy. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has asked American diplomats to “challenge the practices of countries whose action — or inaction — is setting the world back”. Whilst the Biden government has a 2030 goal of at least 50 per cent emissions reduction, Australia aims to cut down by 26 per cent by 2030. Not only is Australia a climate laggard, but an alliance laggard. Australia’s poor performance on climate change affects its partnerships and Washington’s trust in Australia. At the 2021 Pacific Islands Forum leader's meeting, Biden "committed to being a leader in climate change", recognising the urgency of climate change, particularly in the Pacific. The Labor Party election platform outlines that climate change will become a central pillar of the US-Australia alliance.

What happens next

Tensions with China, particularly in the Pacific, have been the focus of foreign and defence policies in this election. While Australia is a relatively small player in Indo-Pacific strategic competition, it is a big emitter. It is vital for security in the Indo-Pacific that Australia reduces greenhouse gas emissions, re-join the Green Climate Fund, and assist with regional adaptation and mitigation. If Australia wants to have a positive impact on security in the region, a more climate-focused foreign and defence policy is needed.

At the time of writing, the Australian Labor Party are predicted to win the election. However, it is still too close to call, as demonstrated by the 2019 election where Labor’s predicted win did not actually materialise. If the Labor Party is elected, the Indo-Pacific will likely see a more proactive and engaged Australia that centres regionalism and climate change at the heart of its foreign policy strategy. The new government will be tested on its foreign policy four days after the election at the Quaderateral Security Dialogue leader's meeting in Japan. Two weeks later, the prime minister will fly to Fiji for the Pacific Islands Forum leader's meeting — the Solomon Islands-China security deal is expected to be discussed at both meetings. What happens at these meetings will shape Australia's new foreign policy.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Kate Clayton is Research Officer at La Trobe Asia. Her research areas include Australia, China, the Pacific Islands and the United States. Her focus is on security, geopolitics and climate change. Image credit: Wikimedia.