Japan after Abe Shinzo: A player in foreign and security policy?
Japan after Abe Shinzo: A player in foreign and security policy?
WRITTEN BY SIMRAN WALIA
13 September 2020
Japan has been on a long journey from outright pacifism to a new forward-leaning foreign policy often understood as proactive pacifism. Post World War Two, Japan sought to forever renounce war and aggressive militarism due to its major constitutional constraints, especially Article 9 of the constitution. The 21st century has seen Tokyo bear witness to major changes to the balance of power in East Asia leading it to pursue an increased role in global affairs.
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s sudden decision to resign due to health concerns has come at a point when Japan’s security situation has become even more uncertain due to the COVID-19 pandemic and external pressures and threats. For many, the question now is whether Abe’s successor can take forward his legacy in terms of focusing upon security issues and policies — or not. This is an issue that can only be fully understood once his successor assumes the office of prime minister. Abe’s focus on major security changes and policies began during his second term and in 2013 he announced, pointedly, that ‘Japan is back’.
Abe also attempted to reorient Japan’s security policy with regard to a rising and increasingly assertive China and in so doing expanded its security and strategic ties with Australia, India, France, the UK, and several countries in Southeast Asia. Abe has therefore left an indelible imprint on the country’s foreign and security policy by charting a more assertive path for Japan while simultaneously reinforcing its alliance with the United States.
He made reforming Japan’s security policies his top priority which, in turn, attracted significant recognition from the international community. Despite an agenda focused on national security, he maintained high levels of domestic popularity. In the international arena, despite strong scepticism about his conservative revisionism, he has generally made progress toward improving relations with countries like the US and conflict-zone nations like Afghanistan and the Middle East through constant support and assistance.
The road to change
One of the major security policies of Japan under the Abe administration has been the founding of the National Security Council (NSC). Its main control is centred around the prime minister and aims to support stronger policy integration in order to manage security, environmental changes and the international balance of power. The National Security Strategy (NSS) was also adopted at the NSC which seeks to present the strategic options open to Japan around external threats and challenges. The NSS holds a fundamental belief in the value of peace through international cooperation which has provided a major boost to Japan’s security policy. It aims to highlight issues such as the balance of power, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, human security, and other challenges.
In 2013, under Abe’s leadership, the National Defence Program Guidelines (NDPG) were adopted and have since proved to be a cornerstone of Japan’s defence and security. Abe strongly promoted the concept of proactive pacifism by justifying the need for an easing of military constraints in order to maintain security. He sought to highlight the value of increased security cooperation among neighbouring countries as a means to bolster Japan’s regional influence. The new dynamic defence force concept was cognisant of emerging threats from China and North Korea while also stressing the importance of a more proactive role for Japan's Self Defence Force (JSDF) around its territory. In support of this aim, Abe sought to ease constraints on the JSDF stemming from Article 9 of the constitution.
This move received a further boost via the 'Dynamic Joint Defence Force' which improved cooperation among the various branches of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. One significant policy development under Japan's defence capabilities has been the enactment of the three principles on 'Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology'. This replaced and revised the principle of the Arms Export ban, where, previously, there had been a total ban on the export of weaponry and equipment.
New legislation for a new era
Abe’s work in transforming security policies culminated in the 2015 ‘Peace and Security Legislation', which, in turn, took effect the following year. The legislation further promulgated revisions to 10 existing laws and the introduction of a new 'International Peace Support Bill’. This legislation also provided the foundation for the controversial 2014 Cabinet which called for the reinterpretation of the peace clause within Article 9 to allow Japan to exercise the right to 'Collective Self-Defense'. It should be noted that Abe's primary objective was the reinterpretation of Article 9. Opposition voices strongly opposed this move due to concerns that it would lead to a change in the pacifist character of the nation. Through emphasising the changing nature of the security environment, Abe framed the change as accounting only for 'Collective Self-Defence’ and therefore ultimately permissible under the UN charter. Further moves saw both the development of new amphibious forces and the start of discussions around the purchase of missiles, thereby, opening the potential for a preemptive strike.
Abe also attempted to reorient Japan’s security policy with regard to a rising and increasingly assertive China and in so doing expanded its security and strategic ties with Australia, India, France, the UK, and several countries in Southeast Asia. Abe has therefore left an indelible imprint on the country’s foreign and security policy by charting a more assertive path for Japan while simultaneously reinforcing its alliance with the United States.
It must be noted that Abe has been unable to make the amendments to Article 9 which were one of his main objectives and which remain an issue due to the reality of Japan’s geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan needs to play a more active role to both balance and counter an increasingly assertive China and nuclear threats from North Korea. In this vein his attempts to negotiate (with Moscow) the return of islands seized by the Soviet Union post World War Two, ultimately, proved futile.
Priorities for Abe’s successor
Japan’s next prime minister must seek to build the capacity of both the NSC and the NSS to help respond to the growing number of complex geopolitical challenges. The new prime minister must keep in mind the dynamics involved in Abe’s security policies and make sure to embrace rather than sideline them. These dynamics include the maintenance of the US-Japan alliance, use of ‘collective self-defence’ and non-combat support for allied countries. Abe’s objective of transforming Japan’s security policy must be carried forward until the programme of change is complete. Notwithstanding this, the new prime minister will have his work cut out in taking over such a raft of responsibilities which includes balancing economic uncertainties and the need for a strong security posture — particularly amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Yoshihide Suga of the (conservative) Liberal Democratic Party, is currently the Chief Cabinet Secretary and a frontrunner to be the next prime minister. His top priority will be to see Japan recover from the pandemic while simultaneously maintaining active foreign and security policies. At this time, Japan requires a leader who can maintain its alliance with the US while also developing relations with China that do not compromise Japanese interests. All the while seeking to build a strong coalition with other nations and remaining focused on its security policies.
Among this burgeoning in-tray, the new prime minister faces one final key challenge in the form of needing to maintain the type of discipline the Liberal Democratic Party showed during Abe’s tenure. Whatever his successes and failures, Abe made clear, that on the global stage an active Japan can do wonders — something the new prime minister must keep in mind.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Simran Walia is currently pursuing an M.Phil in Japanese Studies under the Centre for East Asian Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University. Prior to this, she worked as a Research Assistant at the Observer Research Foundation. Her work has been published in numerous outlets including The Diplomat, Indian Defence Review, and The Geopolitics. She recently published a paper on Japan-Afghanistan relations which is available here. Image credit: US Pacific Fleet/Flickr.