The CPTPP: Is the United States set to re-engage
THE CPTPP: is the united states set
to re-engage
WRITTEN BY TRIDIVESH SINGH MAINI
11 March 2021
In his first weeks in office, US President Biden has made clear that (like his predecessor) he remains concerned about China’s predatory economic practices and has since spoken about the need to work closely with allies. While addressing the Munich Security Conference President Biden stated, “We have to push back against the Chinese government’s economic abuses and coercion that undercut the foundations of the international economic system”.
Following the Covid-19 pandemic, the Trump administration sought to adopt a collaborative approach under the umbrella of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ to alter supply chains in order to reduce dependence on China. Quad countries, India, Japan, the US and Australia mooted the ‘Supply Chain Resilience Initiative’ and this was high on the agenda during last October's meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers. During the early years of his presidency, Trump rubbed many of America’s allies the wrong way due to the imposition of tariffs and his belief that other countries had benefitted at the cost of the United States.
Biden’s reaction to the RCEP
After signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic (RCEP), Biden emphatically stated, that China must not be allowed to set the rules of the game and the United States along with its allies needed to move in this direction. It is important to highlight that as the 15 member RCEP comes into force it will be the world’s largest trade grouping accounting for a 30 per cent share of global GDP and population. Kurt M Campbell formerly a key architect of the Obama administration’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ and now Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council has also echoed Biden’s views toward the partnership and in a recent engagement with a US think-tank he dubbed the RCEP a wake-up call stating the US would need to respond at some point
The US and its allies need to provide an alternative economic narrative as merely criticising Beijing is not enough. Thus far the Biden administration has made the right noises by calling for a collaborative approach on economic issues. Nevertheless, it needs to strike a careful balance and can not ignore domestic political pressures
Some analysts appear sceptical about Biden’s emphasis on working with allies and have reacted with ‘guarded optimism’ to the US President’s call for a collaborative approach. The rationale for this (as opposed to enthusiasm) remains the inward-looking nature of the United States at present and Trump’s transactional approach which impacted not just economic relations but also security cooperation and differences with NATO member states, South Korea and Japan. When looking at the trade it is difficult to deny that China’s growing stranglehold needs to be a priority issue and therefore the United States and allies need to have alternatives. The Trans-Pacific Partnership the brainchild of former President Obama and now known as the CPTPP provided such a possibility, however, one of Trump’s first moves was to pull the US out of this partnership stating “great thing for the American worker what we just did".
CPTPP and likelihood of US rejoining
The CPTPP, which consists of 11 countries and accounts for 13.5 per cent of global GDP was operationalised in 2019 and since the departure of the US in 2017, Japan has taken a leadership role and will chair the CPTPP in 2021. Its value was most recently highlighted during the Covid-19 pandemic where members worked together to keep supply chains open while also ensuring continuing air connectivity. While the United Kingdom has now applied to get on board (and has received support from Japan and Vietnam) many argue that if the UK joins it may propel the United States to reverse Trump’s decision given the likely economic benefits. For this reason, the question on many people’s minds is whether the US under Biden can get on board the CPTPP? Japan, this year’s chair has already hinted at the possibility of new members, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in a recent address to APEC CEO’s stated, “Japan will aspire for the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific through the early conclusion of the RCEP agreement and the steady implementation and expansion of the CPTPP”.
Getting the United States on board will not be easy
The mood within the United States (even among Democratic Party supporters) is not in favour of such a move which itself is interesting given the TPP was the vision of former President Obama. China has expressed interest in joining the CPTPP, though this is likely to face resistance from members like Australia, whose ties with Beijing have deteriorated significantly over recent months. On the possibility of the US rejoining the CPTPP, Biden’s trade negotiator, Katherine Tai made the point, that in principle the US supported the main objectives of the CPTPP, but some issues needed to be addressed and while commenting on the agreement, Tai said, "even today in 2021, the basic formula of TPP, which was to work with our partners with whom we have very important shared interests economically and strategically, and with the challenge of China in mind, is still a sound formula".
Tai also noted that the world has changed significantly in recent years and therefore shows how Biden’s economic agenda can not be too outward-looking given his ‘Made in America’ vision. Furthermore, on 24 February 2021, Biden signed an order to review global supply chains noting, "the best way to do that is by protecting and sharpening America's competitive edge by investing here at home". Unsurprisingly, China was quick to dismiss such efforts as “unrealistic”.
Possible ways forward
While rejoining the CPTPP is no mean task, the Biden administration could work with Japan in other domains, including technology where Quad members are already attempting to expand cooperation across several areas, and once bedded down (and with greater political capital) it could look to rejoin. Finally, the US and its allies need to provide an alternative economic narrative as merely criticising Beijing is not enough. Thus far the Biden administration has made the right noises by calling for a collaborative approach on economic issues. Nevertheless, it needs to strike a careful balance and can not ignore domestic political pressures. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that while economic ties with China need to be re-assessed there is also a need for both a pragmatic and realistic approach in order to avoid a reactive response.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi-based policy analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonipat. His areas of interest include the India-China-Pakistan triangle, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the role of India’s state governments in foreign policy and federalism in India. He was a South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC and a Public Policy Scholar with The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy, Chennai. Image credit: Flickr/Prachatai.