US-China rivalry: assessing the European Union’s role
US-China rivalry: Assessing the European Union’s role
WRITTEN BY SHREYA SINHA
2 June 2020
The ongoing trade war between the US and China has expanded away from a primarily economic conflict between the two world’s largest economies to also include tensions between the two players in fields of military, investment, technology, and also on their respective deliberations upon Hong Kong and Taiwan. If this phase of continued conflict is to become the new normal, there emerges a growing concern of the possibility of a “New Cold War” between the worlds two superpowers. In this context, Europe which had suffered immensely due to the changing global landscape of the Cold War, can be a key player in preventing this threatening scenario from becoming a new reality.
China and EU are the two enormous players who bear the burden to uphold the principles of multilateralism and international order at a time when US has become a major disrupter and agitator in international institutions.
With the United States focusing on an America-First policy framework and repeatedly withdrawing from several global multilateral institutions and agreements, the end of a US-led global order is looking increasingly inevitable. The trend which began with the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal has now progressed into the US attacking the World Trade Organisation and the World Health Organisation as well. At a time when the US has unilaterally withdrawn from the Treaty of Open Skies and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and is also threatening to terminate the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, it becomes evident that common European security and consequently the transatlantic partnership on security more widely could be severely endangered.
With such ongoing trends, several European leaders are thus highly skeptical about the way President Donald Trump is trying to alter the existing global order. In 2019, the American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s approach towards some Eastern European nations was considered an attack on the very supranational structure of existence of the Union itself. In addition, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on European goods and his open encouragement towards Brexit was once again considered a threat to the identity of the Union. Thus, the US’ policy of initiating a trade war with China and withdrawing for global institutions at a time when the world is engulfed in a global pandemic is highly deplorable.
Analysts often equate this trend with the rise of the Asian leadership. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, in his speech on 24 May at the German ambassadorial conference, stresses the likelihood that the United States is on the way to losing its stance as a global leader. Furthermore Borrell in his remarks stressed that the 21st century will be the “Asia Century”, a vision backed by Asia’s recently increasing developments on the economic and technological front. According to several global audits, the top 10 world economies by 2050 will include four Asian countries: China, India, Japan and Indonesia, with US either equal to India in 2nd place, or in some cases even in 3rd place.
However, the European Union has been taking the heat from both sides of the Pacific. On the one hand, the EU is confronted with America’s confrontational foreign policies and on the other hand, it is apprehensive of China’s assault on Hong Kong’s independence, China’s refusal to open up their markets at a time of slowing global economies and Beijing’s growing support towards populist parties of Europe. According to the European Commissions’ report on ‘EU-China: A Strategic Outlook (March 2019), the EU has come to perceive China as a “systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”.
This perception is broadly shaped by the Union’s frustration owing to its inability to access Chinese markets as well as the China’s alarming nationalist narrative.
Marking a paradigm shift in relations, the recent COVID-19 outbreak has allowed the relations of China and the EU to become further strained as it has exposed the fundamental tensions between the two. The outbreak has also disrupted the Chinese global strategy which attempted to replace their declining relations with the US through stronger ties with the EU. Reports suggest that as a result, the EU will transition towards a new strategy towards China, which is likely to be independent as well as aggressive in nature. While following a principle of collective discipline, the EU must focus upon building a stronger relationship with China based on trust, transparency and most importantly, reciprocity.
In such a scenario, it becomes important for the European Union to weave the path between China and the US. The EU, being the invisible superpower, needs to follow a more independent approach in its foreign policy, one which will be shaped by its own norms, values and interests, in order to prevent itself from being instrumentalised by any third player. The EU can play its part in avoiding the new Cold War-like scenario by refusing to participate in it. By maintaining its independent stance, Europe will continue to be relevant in the changing global order with its extraordinary transcontinental presence and soft power, which cannot be matched by China or the US.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Shreya Sinha is a Doctoral Candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. She holds her M.Phil. and MA degrees from the same school at JNU. Her interest areas include Defense and Security Policy of the European Union, Non-Traditional Security Studies, Energy Security and Transatlantic Security Partnership. Image credit: European Council President/Flickr.