Opportunities and challenges for Vietnam as the ASEAN chair

2 July 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all spheres of government operations throughout the world, in no small part due to the need to introduce extraordinary preventative measures aimed at limiting the spread of the disease. These measures, whilst intended to mitigate the disease, have themselves led to a global economic downturn. The pandemic has also served as a major challenge to the current international order, specifically multilateral formats such as the World Health Organization (WHO), which has been subjected to scathing critiques by the United States, and the European Union, which has been criticized by both European member states and ascension countries, such as Serbia.

Southeast Asia is no exception in this respect because COVID-19 has effectively hindered the functioning of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which, in normal times, organizes over 1,000 diplomatic events every year and promotes closer economic ties between member states. Moreover, the pandemic has also undermined the position of the existing guarantor of security and stability in the region: the United States.

The COVID-19 challenge to ASEAN

From a decision making and policy planning perspective, ASEAN has held two key summits annually since 2009, in April and November respectively. The only exception to this rule was 2016, when two summits were organized in November. The state holding the annual Chairmanship of ASEAN has the greatest responsibility for organizing these events. From the beginning of 2020, that obligation and honour has sat with Vietnam. In mid-March, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was forced to inform the other leaders of ASEAN of the postponement of the April summit until the end of June, due to the increasing number of COVID-19 infections globally.

Considering the scale and scope of Chinese actions in the South China Sea, as well as the previous arrangements with ASEAN regarding how to resolve maritime disputes, the 36th ASEAN summit did not bring strong opposition to Beijing’s recent conduct.

ASEAN summits are undoubtedly essential for the functioning of the association. According to Article 31 of the ASEAN Charter, member states shall rotate annually, based on the alphabetical order, and thus every country has the opportunity to indicate the direction of the association's activities once every 10 years by organizing numerous events and setting the appropriate tone of discussions. The Chair also sets the agenda, focusing on issues which are considered most important from the national perspective of the country holding the Chairmanship. It should not be surprising, therefore, that Vietnam via its success in containing COVID-19 sought to organize the summit in the conventional form of a physical meeting almost to the last moment. In early June, Indonesia's Foreign Ministry’s director general for ASEAN cooperation, Jose Tavares, reported that the government in Hanoi was lobbying for the traditional form of the summit to be held in Da Nang. Vietnam’s argument was based on an extremely low number of recorded COVID-19 infections (328 people and no reported deaths), as compared to other countries from the region.

The ongoing COVID-19 situation has led to the postponement of the 36th ASEAN Summit from April until June as well as the suspension of important negotiations (e.g. China-ASEAN consultations regarding the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea scheduled for February in Burma and for May in the Philippines) and the reorganization of many other meetings in limited form, i.e. via video conferencing.

More Hanoi keeps things moving

Due to the numerous restrictions at play, Vietnam faced a significant challenge to its role as ASEAN chair. This lead to discussions about the possibility of extending Hanoi’s term of office for another year at the expense of Brunei, which would then assume the chairmanship in 2021. The topic was raised, among others, by Toru Takahashi in the Nikkei Asian Review and was continued by David Hutt in The Diplomat. The last Vietnam presidency of ASEAN in 2010 resulted in major diplomatic achievements, such as the inclusion of the United States and Russia in the East Asia Summit in November 2011 or the inauguration of the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus, held regularly every three years since 2010.

Previous achievements show Hanoi's strong commitment to raising ASEAN's international significance, which is beneficial for all ASEAN member states. It is difficult to undermine the competence of Vietnamese diplomats, who have become famous over the past few months for the organization of the 2019 North Korea–United States Hanoi Summit, or the signing of a free trade agreement with the European Union in 2019.

In addition, Hanoi has recently become famous for its tough stance on Beijing, especially in the context of the dispute in the South China Sea and the way it manages the water resources of the Mekong River. Both issues are extremely important for ASEAN’s strategic interests. Next year's ASEAN Chairmanship by Brunei can be used by China to impose more favorable conditions on the organisation. In turn, Vietnam enjoys a much better position when negotiating with China, this has been further strengthened by the fact that Vietnam currently sits on the UN Security Council [2020-2021] among non-permanent members. As reported by the Indonesian Foreign Ministry, Hanoi did not raise the issue of prolonging its presidency, although some informal talks have been going on behind the scenes for some time.

Old issues, new concerns

The 36th ASEAN Summit should be considered a landmark, because, despite the lobbying from Hanoi, the event took place via video conferencing format for the first time since the founding of ASEAN in 1967. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic dominating much of the discussion, recent events and the rise in tensions did not escaped members attention. In his speech to inaugurate the summit, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc pointed out that "irresponsible acts and acts in violation of international law are still taking place, affecting the environment of security and stability in certain regions, including in our region".

President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte, spoke in a similar tone during the summit: "even as our region struggles to contain COVID-19, alarming incidents in the South China Sea occurred". Although none of the politicians has explicitly indicated a country that has caused dangerous incidents or violations of international laws, it can be assumed that the main addressee of those abuses was China.

Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese fleet and its proxies has committed a number of actions, from ramming a Vietnamese fishing boat to violating the exclusive economic zone(s) of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. In addition, the Chinese government introduced a fishing ban in the South China Sea above the 12th parallel, establishing new administrative structures for the Paracel and Spratly Islands, and also planning - as reported by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense - to create a South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in a re-run of 2013 when Beijing declared one over a significant part of the East China Sea. Recent events indicate that reports of an ADIZ could well be true, which may explain the 22 June response of Zhao Lijian, spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which he stated that "every country has the right to establish an ADIZ and to decide whether to establish an ADIZ based on the intensity of the threats it faces in air defense security”.

Despite provocative actions by Beijing, speeches by ASEAN’s leaders have been rather conciliatory, hence the appeals of Rodrigo Duterte and Prime Minister of Malaysia Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to comply with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Other countries, such as Cambodia, which is not a claimant state to the maritime disputes, has effectively declared neutrality on the issue, as evidenced by the statement of Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn during the Informal Meeting of ASEAN Foreign Ministers, which took place two days before the 36th ASEAN Summit. However, it is hard to believe in Cambodia's declared neutrality, given the degree of Phnom Penh's dependence on Beijing. Let us not forget that in 2016 Cambodia was the only country to block the issuing of a joint statement by ASEAN Foreign Ministers on the unanimous ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) regarding the territorial dispute in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China.

The Chairman’s statement of the 36th ASEAN Summit entitled "Cohesive and Responsive ASEAN", could not fail to mention the situation in the South China Sea. As was the case with previous statements, there were references to comply with UNLCOS as well as the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in order to maintain stability and freedom of navigation. However, one can see the undermining of one of China's main arguments justifying its claims on the South China Sea.

Progress — or not

In the Chairman’s statement "UNCLOS sets out the legal framework within which all activities in the oceans and seas must be carried out" in relation to which the so-called China's historic rights were contested. In addition, gratitude was expressed to all parties involved for the development of the first reading of the Single Draft Code of Conduct (COC) Negotiating Text. Unfortunately, there was no reference to the second version of the document, as well as the date of resumption of negotiations in that matter. It is very likely that new information on the COC will follow the high-level China-ASEAN (ASEAN-China Senior Officials Meeting) meeting scheduled for early July. It can therefore be expected that during the next 37th ASEAN Summit in November, we will learn more about the next version of the COC.

Considering the scale and scope of Chinese actions in the South China Sea, as well as the previous arrangements with ASEAN regarding how to resolve maritime disputes, the 36th ASEAN summit did not bring strong opposition to Beijing’s recent conduct. Everything indicates that the priority now is to combat the COVID-19 pandemic while reducing the economic slowdown caused by numerous restrictions and lockdowns. Let us not forget that China is the main trading partner of ASEAN, and thus the pace of economic development of the member states is very much dependent on stable relations and economic cooperation with Beijing.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Mateusz Chatys is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Asian Affairs, a university based think-tank, at the University of Lodz, and a Political Science PhD candidate at the Department of Asian Studies, Faculty of International and Political Studies. His main areas of research are China's policy towards ASEAN, patron-client theory. Image credit: ASEAN Secretariat/Flickr.

Pacific9DLJuly 2, 2020India, Vietnam, China, South China Sea