In Forum: Donald Trump re-elected, the Indo-Pacific reacts
IN FORUM:
DONALD TRUMP
RE-ELECTED, THE
INDO-PACIFIC REACTS
11 November 2024
Last week’s US presidential election delivered an unexpectedly clear victory for Donald Trump — with wide-ranging implications for global politics. Trump’s return to the White House will also include a revival of his signature “America first” policies.
The diverging experiences of Indo-Pacific countries under the first Trump administration and the uncertain legacy of outgoing President Joe Biden’s network of alliances in the Indo-Pacific introduce a new layer of instability amid an ever-intensifying geopolitical contest between the US and China.
In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks several experts what to expect from the next US administration and its potential impact on the Indo-Pacific region.
AUSTRALIA MUST ADAPT SWIFTLY
Dr Matthew Sussex: Associate Professor (Adjunct), Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University
In foreign policy, he has three potential pathways. He could opt for a nakedly isolationist 'America first' posture, making grand strategic bargains with Russia and China. Alternatively, he could try to focus more on strategic competition in Asia, and leave Europe to its own devices. Finally, he might seek a Reaganesque 'Peace through strength', in which America leads, but has allies too.
Whatever the outcome, Australia will need to adjust to some hard realities. More will be asked of us by our US security partner, with less given in return. In Trump's transactional world, commitments are rarely iron-clad. Australia will need to adapt swiftly, reinforcing national resilience, creative diplomacy, and asserting sovereignty over its choices. Anything less will be seen as a half-measure by both our friends and adversaries alike.
JAPAN FACES TOUGH NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONS
Dr Kei Koga: Associate Professor, Public Policy and Global Affairs Programme, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University (NTU)
Maintaining and enhancing the US-Japan alliance will continue to be Japan’s core security agenda. This is why Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba promptly congratulated President-elect Donald Trump in a statement immediately after the election results were announced, expressing his willingness to realise a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” in partnership with the United States. Japan has also committed to increasing its defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP, signalling its readiness to take on a larger defence role, as requested by the United States.
The challenge now for Japan is to determine how much more the Trump administration will expect Japan to contribute. Given Trump’s transactional approach to international affairs, strategies that worked in the past might not be applicable in a second Trump administration. Also, with substantial changes in the international strategic environment — particularly the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict — Trump’s reference points on alliance burden-sharing may differ from those of his previous term and demand more.
If this is the case, Ishiba would need to quickly cultivate a personal relationship with Trump, similar to what former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did, while pursuing initiatives that could be mutually beneficial for both Japan and the United States, such as Japan’s diplomatic efforts to advance the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” agenda.
At the same time, Ishiba’s primary diplomatic goal of revising the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States would face substantial challenges unless Japan is prepared to shoulder a greater share of the burden. His proposal to establish an “Asian NATO” would also likely be difficult to realise, as the Trump administration may not favour a multilayered security framework like what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called the “latticework of alliances and partnerships.” Instead, it may prefer bilateral negotiations that connect countries meeting US expectations.
Depending on responses from US allies and partners, the alliance structure could be reshaped.
Yuki Tatsumi: Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program at The Stimson Centre
The Trump administration’s return will force Japan to make tough decisions on how it will implement major policy initiatives on national security issues (including economic security) that it has punted on over the past few years. From increasing defence spending to approximately 2 per cent of its GDP to bolstering industrial security, Japan had to overcome its past inertia to achieve these goals.
However, the return of the US’ "America first" approach to the alliance with a greater demand for it to be an "equitable alliance”, could prove to be a positive disruptor to the US-Japan alliance, triggering much-needed broader national security reform in Japan.
MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PHILIPPINES
Andrea Chloe Wong: PhD, Non-resident Fellow at The Institute Of Indo-Pacific Affairs
The incoming presidency of Donald Trump brings both prospective advantages and concerns for the Philippines.
Manila is expecting protectionism from the US, including trade restrictions as part of Trump’s “America first” policy. This could threaten vital Philippine exports to the US, such as electronics, garments, and agricultural products. However, Trump’s hardline economic stance on China can provide opportunities for the Philippines. As Trump encourages American companies to reduce their reliance on Chinese manufacturing, Manila can position itself as an alternative supplier of goods and raw materials for the US.
In terms of immigration, Filipinos living in the US illegally may face deportation due to Trump’s stringent policy. This would reduce remittances sent to the Philippines, impacting the household spending of millions of families and affecting the local economy. Data from the US Department of Homeland Security in 2022 showed that there are 350,000 Filipinos living illegally in the US, the 5th largest unlawful immigrant population.
Regarding their security alliance, the Philippines is uncertain about the level of the US defence commitment under Trump, especially when it comes to deterring China’s maritime aggression. This is particularly relevant to its ongoing security issues with China in the South China Sea. On the one hand, Trump’s increasing threat perception and contempt for China may result in him taking a tougher stance against its belligerence in the South China Sea by boosting defence cooperation with Manila. On the other hand, Trump’s “America first” policy may imply a more restrained security commitment towards the Philippines, as the president-elect may find it risky and burdensome to engage in security issues that the US is not directly involved in.
AUKUS' FUTURE IN DOUBT
Kate Clayton: Senior Coordinator (Programs and Research), La Trobe Asia. Her Research Focuses on Security, Maritime Issues and Climate Change in The Indo-Pacific
Australia, one of the United States’ closest allies in the Indo-Pacific, has been watching the election closely. Over the past few years, US-Australia relations have been enhanced and expanded, as seen with the AUKUS Agreement and climate cooperation becoming the third pillar of the Alliance (after defence and economic ties).
While Biden’s Indo-Pacific policy was not too dissimilar from Trump’s, the region is bracing for some turbulence. However, there are a few key problems that a Trump presidency would pose for Australia.
First, there is concern that the AUKUS Agreement is in trouble. While so far, there have not been any indicators from Trump and his team that they will scrap AUKUS, Australia could get the NATO partner treatment of being asked to ‘pull its weight’ more. Further, there are now increased calls on the left in Australia to disband AUKUS as it ties Australia more closely to Trump. As Australia heads into an election next year, how the Australian left uses AUKUS and Trump in campaigning will be something to watch.
Second, the catastrophic impact Trump will have on climate change cooperation has already been outlined, which, for Australia, centres on the Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact. The Indo-Pacific is the most climate-vulnerable region, and a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and a shift away from clean energy will have normative ramifications and could see it become less trusted in the Pacific Islands in particular.
Finally, there is concern that Trump will draw America away from its engagements in the Indo-Pacific more broadly. This will be alongside Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, which will have economic repercussions for the region, including Australia. However, it is important to note that it was under Trump that we saw the revival of the Quad. Trump’s preference for strong men and great and middle powers will see him engaged with the region, particularly India; however, he could be less focused on both Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Under Biden, the US increased its diplomatic footprint in the Pacific. Australia will need to work with the US to build on this momentum. Otherwise, it will have to step up its engagement in the Pacific further to counter potential US disinterest under Trump, particularly around issues of climate change.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writers and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Image credit: Flickr/Gage Skidmore