China -Japan ties: turbulant times ahead?

24 June 2020

The COVID-19 crisis has ensured Japan-China relations remain on edge despite Tokyo’s initial refusal to either blame Beijing directly or take actions over its handling of the virus. Before COVID-19 emerged as a global pandemic, it was initially prevalent in a handful of countries including Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy and Spain. Japan was one of the first nations to be afflicted by the pandemic though it has managed to combat its effects through increased public awareness, safety measures and social distancing, while refraining from mass and rapid testing unlike many other countries.

As of writing Japan has lifted its nationwide emergency, with the spread of the virus having been curbed after an initial surge in illnesses, with the prefectures of Tokyo and Osaka having been witness to the most infections. Nevertheless several instances in recent days have resulted in genuine concerns about the risk of a ‘second wave’. Notably it has refrained from joining most countries, including a staunch ally in the United States, in criticising China directly particularly in reference to the virus’s origin in Wuhan. Japanese silence may reflect a desire to avoid further antagonism and concentrate upon the country’s determined fight against COVID-19 that has claimed over 700 Japanese lives, for fear of confronting a powerful maritime adversary in China in the East China Sea.

Nevertheless Japan has chosen to be a part of an exclusive group of countries that have called for an investigation into the origins of the virus, subsequently raising concerns with the World Health Organisation (WHO). In addition, China’s gray-zone tactics in the East China Sea have drawn Japanese ire on several recent occasions. Japan, currently the recipient of bellicose sentiment from the Foreign Ministry in Beijing is yet to resolve (either through the limited use of force or amicable bilateral negotiations) the long-drawn territorial dispute over the Senkaku islands, known in China as ‘Diaoyu’ or Tiaoyu t’ai. Tensions surrounding the islands were further inflamed when Japan chose to purchase three of the five islets through a third-party, these were later nationalized.

While the Japanese claim the issue stands resolved, in September 2019 reports of a deployment of new maritime police aimed at countering potential Chinese aggression emerged indicating the issue is far from over. The recent collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces’ destroyer, the JS Shimakaze, in the East China Sea proved a sharp reminder to those who may have thought the issue would fade in the face of greater events. The tragic effects of the COVID-19 virus, which has claimed both Chinese and Japanese lives, only serves to heighten the nationalist emotions that surround such maritime incidents.

For the last decade China’s maritime militia has harassed the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force on numerous occasions in the East China Sea and in 2013 China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone. Japan strongly opposed this move alongside the United States. After a three year hiatus the Japan-China Defense Ministerial Meeting finally took place in October 2018, leading to the launch of the Maritime and Air Communication Mechanism. The meeting was also held last year in order to further promote cooperation in defence and improve mutual understanding. Despite these brief moments of progress Japan announced plans to deploy hypersonic missiles, which defense analysts believe are largely in response to China’s continued assertiveness in the region.

The East China Sea: a forum for rivals

The East China Sea is no stranger to territorial disputes and is also located in a maritime zone of considerable strategic significance, on par with the neighbouring South China Sea. Major East Asian powers are littoral to the disputed waters and continue to compete for the region’s abundance of renewable and non-renewable energy resources.

The countries of Japan, the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK), Taiwan (Republic of China), and most importantly, China itself, are at the heart of the East Asian region’s instability. Amid the morass of issues sit the no-small matter(s) of sovereignty, not least including China’s prolonged confrontations with Taiwan and Hong Kong over their intergration into the Peoples’ Republic. Alongside these inter-China disputes no lesser concerns are the territorial disputes directly between Japan and China over the Senkakus, Japan and the Republic of Korea over Dokdo Island and finally the Republic of Korea and China in the Yellow Sea.

The region is also prone to developments at the hands of China’s maritime militia, which are typically used as a show of strength aimed at regional rivals, notably against Japan in the East China Sea. The Chinese government is known to deploy its unofficial ‘armed force’ in the South China Sea too, frequently, with regional and extra-regional rivals crying foul due to China’s decision to resort to unconventional means in order to achieve its aim.

Conclusion

Despite the many concerns between the two countries notwithstanding, Japan and China have taken modest steps to improve relations in the area of trade. Coming amid the US-China trade war, growing bilateral trade between Japan and China has created what is in reality one of Asia’s key economic partnerships.

In 2018, China was responsible for the highest numbers of Japanese exports, with 9.5% of all Japanese exports going to the emerging regional hegemon. In the next year, Japan’s exports to China witnessed a slight fall to 19.1% as opposed to 19.9% vis-à-vis the United States. Nevertheless the country continues to remain Japan’s second-largest trading partner after the US.

In recent days, Japan has indicated its desire to ‘lead the way’ on the issue of Hong Kong with complaints against China in the Group of Seven (G7) concerning the security laws imposed by the central government in Hong Kong. This serves as a reminder of Japan’s inclination towards enhancing its role as regional leader - China the obvious target for this rivalry. Japan-China relations seem to face issues concerning the ‘hard’ aspects such as the spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan to Japanese cities and Chinese exertions in the waters neighbouring its East Asian rival, while softer aspects such as bilateral trade and continued focus on regional integration have considerably fostered bonhomie between these two vital regional heavyweights.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Jay Maniyar is a Research Associate at the National Maritime Foundation in New Delhi, India. The views expressed above are in a personal capacity, and do not reflect the views of his employers. He can be reached via email at jaymaniyar@gmail.com, and can be contacted on the professional networking platform, LinkedIn. Image credit: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan

Pacific9DLJune 24, 2020China, Covid-19, Japan