Abdullah-Ghani power-sharing deal: a glimmer of hope in Afghanistan?
The Abdullah-Ghani Power Sharing Deal: A Glimmer of Hope in Afghanistan?
WRITTEN BY YATHARTH KACHIAR
29 June 2020
Ethnic fault lines in Afghanistan lie at the heart of the country’s 40 year old conflict. The struggle for power and survival between the various ethnicities - Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras have often been exploited and exacerbated by outside powers at different points in Afghanistan’s history. On 17 May this year, President Ghani and Dr Abdullah signed a power-sharing deal in a bid to assuage some of these ethnic fault lines. The power-sharing deal also signalled the end of a political impasse which had threatened the legitimacy of the Afghan central government and the country’s fragile democratic order.
The dispute between Afghanistan’s two most prominent leaders has lingered since the declaration of February’s presidential election result. Making a mockery of the electoral process, both leaders claimed victory in the election and proceeded to pronounce themselves as the head of state. Unlike in 2014, when the then Secretary of State, John Kerry, negotiated the power-sharing agreement between the two leaders; it has actually been Afghanistan’s political leaders, including the former President Hamid Karzai who has facilitated the recent political settlement between the two camps.
Given the precarious security situation in Afghanistan and in light of a much less interested United States [provider of a key military umbrella], the power-sharing agreement between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah is timely and provides a rare glimmer of hope in the war-ravaged country.
The recently signed political agreement gives Dr Abdullah, a Tajik, executive authority to head the High Council of National Reconciliation, a political body which will lead the peace process in Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani retained his post as president but under the terms of the power sharing agreement Dr Abdullah has the authority to appoint fifty per cent of the ministers in the new cabinet, including key ministries such as the Ministry of Interior Affairs.
As the Afghan people brace themselves to spearhead the intra-Afghan dialogue vis-à-vis the Taliban, the understanding reached between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah will strengthen the position of pro-democratic forces in the country. The newly achieved understanding, if continued, will help forge a united front to protect the gains made over the last 18 years. To enhance the Afghan government’s bargaining power, the Afghans must speak in a unified voice while negotiating with the Taliban.
In the past few months, Afghanistan has seen increasing levels of violence as indicated by the horrific Kabul maternity hospital attack, and the more recent attack on Khurshid TV journalists in Kabul. The three-day Eid ceasefire announced by the Taliban, which has continued unofficially after that, has brought some respite to ordinary Afghans as well as overstretched Afghan security forces.
In a reciprocal goodwill gesture to the Taliban, President Ghani has announced that the government will release 2,000 Taliban prisoners, bringing the total number of released prisoners to 2,700. The US-Taliban agreement stipulates that the Afghan government will release a total of 5,000 Taliban prisoners before the initiation of the intra-Afghan talks. If the Taliban extend the reduction in violence, it is most likely that President Ghani will also continue by reciprocating with further prisoner releases.
However, as the US and NATO security umbrella shrinks in Afghanistan, the Taliban may in fact be emboldened and the hardliners within the group, such as the Haqqani Network, will seek to win the war through military means rather than negotiations. Afghan officials have specifically accused the Haqqani Network of carrying out the Kabul maternity hospital attack. As the recent UN report indicates, “relations between the Taliban, especially the Haqqani Network, and Al-Qaida remain close… the Taliban regularly consulted with Al-Qaida during negotiations with the United States and offered guarantees that it would honour their historical ties.”
At present, with the United States so deeply embroiled in internal problems, the Taliban’s ties with Al-Qaeda seem less of a concern to the Trump administration. Recently, President Trump has reiterated his determination to complete a full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Under the US-Taliban agreement, the United States is committed to curtailing its military presence in the country to 8,600 by mid-July, and a complete withdrawal by May 2021. Nevertheless, the most recent reports on the subject suggest that the US military strength in the country is already down to 8,600 from 13,000, earlier than scheduled.
Given the precarious security situation in Afghanistan and in light of a much less interested United States [provider of a key military umbrella], the power-sharing agreement between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah is timely and provides a rare glimmer of hope in the war-ravaged country. However, to fully seize this rare opportunity, Afghan political elites must involve all the stakeholders, especially the youth, women and minorities and work towards building a consensus on critical issues with the utmost urgency.
For the people of Afghanistan, the only way out of this conundrum is that they start speaking with a unified voice on key issues such as amendments for the constitution, citizen’s rights, women’s rights, minority rights, electoral reforms, and the revamping of institutions. Before diving into the intra-Afghan negotiations, the High Council for National Reconciliation under the leadership of Dr Abdullah must involve all the stakeholders to clearly define their redlines and possible concessions which they are willing to make while negotiating with the Taliban. To avoid a repeat of the internecine warfare of the very recent past, Afghans and their leaders must rise to the occasion.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Yatharth Kachiar is a Research Associate at the Vivekananda International Foundation where she focuses on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Image credit: US State Department/Flickr.