Malaysia: politically unstable, and set to remain so
Malaysia: politically unstable, and to remain so
WRITTEN BY UDAY BAKHSHI
30 June 2020
Malaysian politics is perhaps at its most turbulent than at any time in the last few decades and stability does not seem to be on the cards anytime soon. Many factors led to former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s February resignation and the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which paved the way for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to assume office. Four months later however it’s less than clear as to whether PN even holds a parliamentary majority.
As a result of the volatility, the Muhyuddin government has deliberately focused on the COVID-19 pandemic in its first parliamentary session and chose not to address a vote of no confidence against the government. In recent days, there have been calls for snap elections from both sides, so that it can be established who will be in power until the end of the current term in 2023. However, the PN coalition still does not command a clear cut majority and the opposition has too many divisions. Thus, in all likelihood, the prospect of a stable government in Kuala Lumpur remains low.
The biggest party in the PN coalition is the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which presided over the country during the infamous 1MDB corruption scandal. The scandal led to Mahathir coming together with Anwar Ibrahim, a former friend-turned-foe, to unexpectedly win the 2018 elections, which saw the then ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition removed from power for the first time since independence. This came on the back of large scale protests against former Prime Minister Najib Razak and his government’s involvement in the 1MDB scandal.
The events of the last few months has only further alienated the Malaysian public from establishment figures such as Mahathir and Anwar. Meanwhile the PN government is increasingly being viewed as illegitimate, and concerns over corruption at the heart of Malaysia’s government are once again rising.
The return of UMNO to Malaysia’s government will bring back perceptions of corruption within the highest elements of government, especially after charges were dropped against Najib’s stepson, Riza Aziz, for his role in the 1MDB case. Najib’s case is still ongoing but the public and opposition feel that UMNO’s commanding presence in PN will influence legal proceedings. This view looks set to harden as perceptions are growing among Malaysians that the PN government is essentially a backdoor government; it was not voted in and its main constituent party lost its mandate to rule in 2018.
In addition to fears of corruption, the Perikatan Nasional coalition is bringing back concerns that the government will be more focused on Malay-Muslim issues and will sideline minority demographics. This is especially so as the hardline Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), which seeks to impose Islamic law, is also a part of Perikatan Nasional. In this sense, the ousted Pakatan Harapan government, despite having parties that are predominantly focused on Malay-Chinese interests for instance, enjoyed a broader appeal when compared to the PN.
Within Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s own party, Bersatu, which was founded by his predecessor Mahathir, divisions between supporters still exist, especially after Mahathir was seen to be illegally kicked out. In the Perikatan Nasional coalition, Bersatu is a relatively minor party when compared to PAS and UMNO. The result of which is that the cohesiveness of the PN governing coalition is shaky at best, and with the way MPs have been switching from one side to another, unless PN commands a sizable majority, the government risks collapse.
Tensions within the Pakatan Harapan
The opposition Pakatan Harapan is not doing much better. The tensions between Mahathir and Anwar have escalated to a point where both are unwilling to compromise and reach an agreement ultimately harming PH’s prospects of a return to government. In 2018, the agreement was that Mahathir would be the Prime Minister for two years before handing over the reins to Anwar. Over time, tension increased and the handover became increasingly politicized, creating rifts between their respective supporters. Now, there are deep levels of mistrust between the two.
Anwar Ibrahim is refusing to go into a similar agreement with Mahathir amid concerns that he may break such an agreement. Anwar’s supporters and members of his Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party have also echoed these sentiments. A counterproposal by Anwar has been suggested in which he would take the PM’s seat and Mahathir would take a cabinet post. This however was rejected by the latter. In fact, Mahathir has indicated that he would withdraw his support from the Pakatan Harapan coalition entirely if his demands are not acquiesced to.
Even at 94, Mahathir Mohamad still commands high levels of popularity within Malaysia - even more than Anwar. The PH coalition needs a figure like Mahathir to consolidate itself as a viable opposition to the Perikatan Nasional. Anwar for his part lacks the political clout of Mahathir, and while he has been named leader of the PH coalition by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the party has been incurring criticism from other PH parties over its refusal to allow Mahathir to be the candidate for prime minister. However, Pakatan Harapan needs PKR in the coalition to beat PN, thus illustrating the complexity of the political situation within Malaysia’s parliamentary parties.
For its part the Malaysian public has become increasingly jaded by these developments. While in power, PH lost multiple by-elections due to its apparent inability to fulfil campaign promises from 2018, exacerbated by the general slowdown in Malaysia’s economy. What has occurred over the past few months has only further alienated the public from lifelong establishment figures such as Mahathir and Anwar. Meanwhile the PN government is increasingly being viewed as illegitimate, and with the apparently strong influence of UMNO over it, previous concerns over corruption at the heart of Malaysia’s government are once again rising.
As it stands, neither political coalition commands a parliamentary majority. If snap elections are called, it is unlikely that one side will gain a strong upper hand without significant concessions being made by some of the aforementioned prominent figures or parties. It will also lead to a scenario where horse-trading and other such politicking will be recorded, deepening the public’s mistrust. If snap elections are not called, the PN government will likely have to sit through a no-confidence motion, which at this point, it may not be able to weather. So in light of all this, a state of political uncertainty is likely to continue in Malaysia for the near future.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Uday Bakshi is a geopolitical risk analyst with a focus on Southeast Asian politics. Image credit: Wikipedia Commons.