Our top ten articles for 2020
Our top ten articles for 2020
31 December 2020
As this year draws to a close we recap events through ten of our most-read articles.
As an entirely independent platform, we remain committed to connecting Europe and the Indo-Pacific while also seeking to showcase the next generation of leading thinkers.
Thank you to all our contributors and we look forward to offering yet more high-quality analysis next year.
INDIA-CHINA RIVALRY: TOWARDS A TWO FRONT WAR IN THE HIMALAYAS?
WRITTEN BY SREEJITH SASIDHARAN
China’s defence white paper released in July 2019, titled ‘National Defense in the New Era’ throws light on Beijing’s recent escalation on the India-China border in Ladakh. The white paper observes that China’s armed forces have carried out extensive mission-oriented training to meet the needs of different ‘strategic directions’.
Interestingly, the term ‘strategic directions’, was previously absent in the defence white papers of 2008 or 2010 and only made an appearance for the first time in April 2013. It is in line with this change, that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has seen increasing numbers of confrontations in the last 7 years. This pattern of escalation starting with the Raki Nala incident and the publication of Beijing’s 2013 defence white paper, came exactly one month after Xi Jinping formally took office as the President of China in March 2013.
HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH DEPLOYS TO THE INDO-PACIFIC IN 2021
WRITTEN BY TOM SHARPE
Next year will see the Queen Elizabeth Carrier Task Group set sail for the Indo-Pacific. This will be the culmination of years of planning efforts that officially started in 2016. Before delving into the ‘where’, ‘why’, ‘what’ and ‘how’, some thoughts on what a Carrier Strike Task Group (CSTG) is from Commodore Steve Moorehouse, Commander UK Carrier Strike Group, who captured this recently:
“Carrier Strike offers Britain choice and flexibility on the global stage; it reassures our friends and allies and presents a powerful deterrent to would-be adversaries”
In other words, HMS Queen Elizabeth and her escorts can conduct operations along the entire defence continuum. From diplomatic engagements to freedom of navigation, humanitarian aid, deterrence and, if necessary, high-level warfighting. It can do all this at range and with an unrivalled degree of autonomy.
IS CHINA'S WESTERN THEATRE COMMAND CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE INDIA?
WRITTEN BY SUYASH DESAI
In 2013, during the Third Plenum of the18th Central Committee, it was announced by Xi Jinping that China would introduce widespread military reforms. This shift in policy came a year after Xi Jinping had succeeded Hu Jintao as General Secretary and at the beginning of his program of consolidating his faction’s hold over the Chinese Communist Party. Amid other reforms, including announcements on the economy, the Third Plenum specifically identified the People’s Liberation Army leadership, command and force structures, institutions and civil-military integration as key areas for major reforms.
Xi initiated the reform process two years later in 2015 with the ambitious goal to make the PLA a fully mechanised force by 2020, informatised by 2035 with the key aim of turning it into a world-class army by 2050. These reforms included changes to the Central Military Commission’s bureaucratic structure, the creation of newer forces like the PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) and the PLA Joint Logistic Support Force (JLSF) and the formation of theatre commands for improving effectiveness between the various branches. Alongside these institutional reforms, Xi Jinping also prioritised weapons modernisation with the deployment of newer weapon systems.
GERMANY GETS ON BOARD WITH THE INDO-PACIFIC
WRITTEN BY GARIMA MOHAN
Last week the German government adopted new policy guidelines on the Indo-Pacific, making Germany only the second European country after France to have a blueprint for engagement with the region. This marks a remarkable shift. Till about a year ago, there was considerable reluctance in German policy circles to even use the term, largely because of China’s misgivings. The first signs of change were visible at the end of last year when the German Defense Minister signalled a shift in security approach by highlighting concerns over Chinese claims to power in the region, and arguing that Germany should show solidarity with partners in the Indo-Pacific. Since then, the debate on the Indo-Pacific and how best to engage with the region has been gaining traction in several European countries as well as Brussels.
The German Leitlinien (policy guidelines) is a 40-pages long comprehensive document that explains how Germany views the region and delineates its priorities for engagement. The document is important for three reasons. First, it recognises the importance of the Indo-Pacific as a strategic region, which will be “key to shaping the international order in the 21st century”. It notes that while different countries use different geographical contours to define the region, Germany defines the Indo-Pacific as the entire area characterised by the interconnected Indian and Pacific Oceans. Second, it recognises that security dynamics in the region will have a direct impact on European security and prosperity, not least since Europe and the Indo-Pacific are “closely connected through global supply chains”.
BORDER CLASHES WITH CHINA: DOES INDIA FACE A FAIT ACCOMPLI?
WRITTEN BY RAJESWARI PILLAI RAJAGOPALAN
There is still a lot of difficulty in understanding what is happening on the Sino-Indian border because of patchy and contradictory reporting, mostly based on sources in New Delhi. Thus any analysis has necessarily to be quite preliminary and tentative. As of today, citing government sources, one media report said, “there are close to 10,000 soldiers of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Indian territory”. It should be noted though that other reports have suggested fewer numbers.
The current series of incidents started on 5 May, when around 250 Indian and Chinese military personnel clashed at Pangong Tso, a large lake in eastern Ladakh region. These were reportedly violent clashes, injuring several soldiers on both sides. Quoting a senior bureaucrat, one Indian media report said that some Indian troops were detained, but then released. But the Indian Army promptly denied this, though the detention story has continued.
CHINA’S DANGEROUS DOUBLE GAME IN MYANMAR
WRITTEN BY HUNTER MARSTON
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored Myanmar’s reliance on its giant neighbour China’s assistance in times of crisis. Beijing has delivered testing machines and medical supplies and has sent teams of doctors to work with Myanmar’s health care providers and in military hospitals. However, it had become increasingly clear prior to the outbreak of the virus that bilateral relations had largely reverted to their historic closeness, which was briefly interrupted by Myanmar’s democratic transition and short-lived opening to the west from 2010-2015.
The humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State, which erupted in 2016 and 2017, has curbed the interest of western investors and dampened Myanmar’s relations with the United States and European Union. Both foreign governments imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military in reprisal for its targeted clearance operations that led to the exodus of nearly 800,000 Rohingya, a Muslim minority group that had lived in Rakhine, which borders Bangladesh.
BEIJING DOES NOT UNDERSTAND VIETNAM’S ANTI-CHINA NATIONALISM
WRITTEN BY DAVID HUTT
A major anti-China protest has occurred in Vietnam almost every other year during the past decade. In 2006 demonstrations erupted against Chinese firms mining for bauxite in northern Vietnam. In 2011, weeks of protests took place over China’s bullying behaviour in the South China Sea (SCS). This was also the reason underlying the largest wave of anti-China protests three years later, following Beijing’s deployment of an oil rig, the Hai Yang Shi You 981, near the contested Paracel Islands. This sparked riots across the country, during which several Chinese nationals were killed and thousands fled Vietnam (smaller protests also occurred in 2012 and 2013). In 2016, nationwide protests lasted for almost a year after a Taiwanese-owned steel factory spilt toxic waste into the seas of central Vietnam, polluting vast swathes of the water and destroying the fishing industry in several provinces.
Then, in 2018, Vietnam saw its largest protests in decades when hundreds of thousands across the country demonstrated against a planned law on special economic zones, the so-called 'SEZ law', which many Vietnamese thought would be akin to selling the nation’s land to the highest Chinese bidder. Smaller protests also took place after the ruling Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) ended oil exploration projects in the SCS with foreign firms in 2017 and 2018 because of Chinese pressure and threats of violence. More demonstrations took place after July of last year, when Chinese vessels began encircling the Vanguard Bank, an area of the SCS close to the Vietnam border, and which Beijing claims to be within its self-defined 'nine-dash line'.
LADAKH BORDER CRISIS PLACES FURTHER PRESSURE ON INDIA’S NUCLEAR BOUNDARIES
WRITTEN BY FRANK O’DONNELL
India and China are engaged in their worst border crisis in 40 years. China has occupied areas of India-governed Ladakh since at least May 2020, with a clash in June 2020 leading to double-digit mortalities on both sides. These intrusions surpass China’s previously claimed line in its Ladakh territorial dispute with India. They have the effect of cutting off Indian border patrol posts from each other while establishing a position to potentially sever the crucial Indian Darbuk–Shyok–Daulat Beg Oldi strategic supply road.
It is perhaps inevitable that this continuing Indian national security crisis has amplified the debate in New Delhi regarding its nuclear doctrine. India has deployed INS Arihant, it’s sole nuclear-armed submarine (SSBN), in the Indian Ocean to “send out a message” to China. A former chief of the China-facing Indian Army Northern and Central Commands has written that if China attempts further offensive military actions, New Delhi “will have to resort to nuclear brinkmanship to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
COVID-19: GEOPOLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS FOR CHINA AND BEYOND
WRITTEN BY SARI ARHO HAVRÉN
As the world is locked in battle against the spreading COVID-19, the worst crises since World War Two, China’s narrative has evolved from the initial cover-up of the seriousness of the novel virus into portraying herself as the benevolent saviour of the world. This narrative has been backed by claims that China provided the world with precious time to prepare for the outbreak, and after, by providing the China-friendly countries with medical supplies. The story has evolved into China depicting itself as an example for other countries while openly smearing the failed responses to the pandemic in the rest of the world.
Recently, we have witnessed the Chinese propaganda machine in its full force, first by its forceful denial of China being the origin of the virus and then, by pointing the origin towards the US, aiming to blur the logical chain of events. Both the US and China have accused each other and even if the leaders are now trying to ease the tensions; the internal pressures in their countries will hardly decrease.
THE EMERGING US-VIETNAM PARTNERSHIP: FUNCTION OVER FORMALITY?
WRITTEN BY HANH NGUYEN
This year marks the 25th anniversary of the normalisation of bilateral relations between Vietnam and the US. Forty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War, US-Vietnam relations have been transformed into a growing and sustained partnership.
In 2019, Vietnam’s exports to the US reached over US$66 billion with a trade surplus of over US$55 billion. The US continues to be Vietnam’s largest export market and Vietnam was the United States' 12th largest supplier of goods imports in 2018. The growing US-China trade war has contributed significantly to increased bilateral trade as businesses relocate from China to Vietnam in order to avoid tariffs.
The diplomatic front was marked with a flurry of visits from both senior officials and statesmen with President Trump twice visiting Hanoi in his first term. In addition to official visits, the US-Vietnam Political, Security and Defence Dialogue, which was established in 2008, has enabled senior officials to discuss the trajectory of bilateral relations and work through other key issues. Even on security and defence, which was characterised by slow development and cautiousness from the Vietnamese side, has seen both countries manage to accelerate cooperation. Along with the 2016 lifting of a sales ban on lethal weapons and subsequent port calls by US Navy warships, the US has provided Vietnam with maritime security assistance through programs like the Maritime Security Initiative, the Cooperative Threat Reduction, and Foreign Military Financing.