2020: Year of the unexpected
2020: Year of the unexpected
WRITTEN BY MANALI KUMAR
21 December 2020
In most years, the release of U.F.O. videos by the Pentagon would have grabbed our attention on screens of all sizes. US Senator Marco Rubio even expressed his hope that the objects shown in the video were from outer space rather than a technological leap by China or Russia. And in August, the US Department of Defence created a brand new Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force.
And yet, we have paid scant attention to the prospect of aliens. Chances are you have also mostly forgotten about Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou (she is still a Canadian captive) and Brexit (yes, the drama continues) is at the very back of your mind at best.
It’s not your fault. 2020 has ended up being the most disruptive year in recent memory. Here is a look at five defining features of the year we’re all ready to put behind us.
Sorry climate change, Corona stole the show
With natural disasters and extreme weather incidents growing in frequency and severity, 2020 was supposed to be the year that the earth’s climate finally got the attention it sorely deserves. Devastating bushfires in Australia and the highest ever recorded temperature made headlines across the world in January.
Australian bushfire January 2020 Image credit: Wikimedia
Since then, in what has turned out to be one of the warmest years on record, cyclones and typhoons have left a trail of destruction across the Indo-Pacific, heavy rains and flooding have ravaged cities across the world from South Korea to Greece, wildfires have continued along the west coast of the US since mid-August, and the Atlantic hurricane season has been the ‘busiest’ on record. Unfortunately, global cooperation on climate change mitigation will have to wait with COP26, the next round of the United Nations Climate Change Conference originally scheduled for November 2020, having been postponed till 2021.
Although the motivations underlying the protests in Hong Kong and Thailand are different from those in India and the US, in all cases they indicate growing popular dissatisfaction with prevailing institutions and political leadership in each country.
The unexpected outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted everything this year. From the launch of The Hundred cricket tournament, the Euro 2020 football road trip, and the much-anticipated summer superhero movie season to global supply chains and the lives and livelihoods of billions across the world. The novel coronavirus has spared nothing. The pandemic will no doubt have far-reaching consequences for human society both across national and international spectrums. Perhaps some of these will be positive. The pandemic has laid bare the severe inadequacies of existing healthcare systems; maybe governments will increase healthcare spending in the coming years. And while ‘Zoom fatigue’ has entered our vocabulary and we have all come to appreciate the value of in-person interactions with colleagues, the general success of working-from-home may help improve work-life balance in the coming years.
But the pandemic has already worsened inequalities and triggered the worst global recession since World War II. In every society, upper-middle classes have been able to adapt their lives to restrictions far more easily than those belonging to lower-income groups. Likewise, the disease and the consequences of mitigation restrictions have disproportionately affected gender, race, and ethnic minorities, worsening pre-existing structural disparities within societies. India’s surprise lockdown in March displaced at least 10 million migrant workers setting off the country’s largest migration since its independence in 1947. 93 per cent of Singapore’s over 58,000 COVID-19 cases this year were among migrant workers.
India battles the COVID-19 pandemic. Image credit: Flickr/Gwydion M. Williams
With estimates suggesting per capita incomes may decline 3.6 per cent and with nearly half of the global workforce at risk of losing employment, as many as 132 million people may slide into extreme poverty. The economic fallout of this pandemic will be felt for years to come as middle-classes across the world experience loss of income and businesses suffer widespread bankruptcies. Moreover, disruptions in education, healthcare, and mental health on a hitherto unexperienced scale will no doubt have generational effects. In an era of increasing populism, illiberalism, and right-wing extremism, the pandemic will certainly have long-term social and political consequences.
Worse yet, the pandemic has exposed the weakness of international cooperation. Despite lofty rhetoric in support of multilateralism, most countries reacted with competition and selfishness rather than global solidarity. The international community’s pandering to the PRC’s sensitivities in refusing to accept the de facto reality of ROC-Taiwan’s sovereignty and excluding the country from international organisations such as the WHO is becoming more ridiculous by the day. Moreover, established and would-be great powers alike have failed to provide global leadership. International organisations including UN agencies and the EU have been ineffective and constrained by nationalistic responses.
Now the battle has shifted to the World Trade Organisation, where a request by a consortium of developing countries to suspend patent enforcement of Covid vaccines to allow speedy manufacturing of generic versions was blocked. As industrialised countries begin vaccinating their citizens and with experts estimating that there will not be enough vaccine doses for the majority of the world’s population until 2022, global divides between the rich and poor will only become worse. This experience does not bode well for international action on other critical challenges, especially climate change.
China’s new persona
China has had a busy year. The pandemic has deflected some of the attention from the continuing civil unrest in Hong Kong and human rights abuses in Xinjiang. While it received a lot of negative press at the start of this year due to its apparent failure to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak beyond its borders, it seems to have managed the crisis surprisingly well at home in part due to its widespread use of AI and big data. While China’s response has been criticised as authoritarian, the country is also an outlier in terms of economic recovery. It will be the only G20 economy that would have grown this year, despite the pandemic.
Worryingly, Beijing’s seeming abandonment of cautious incrementalism as a rising power and more aggressive behaviour in the second half of 2020 have raised doubts about its intentions. After attempting mask diplomacy to generate some goodwill in March and engaging in vaccine diplomacy in the months since, China has also moved to bolster its claims in the South China Sea in April, escalated a border dispute with India in May, rejected the 1954 median line in the Taiwan Strait during military exercises in September, and in recent weeks it has escalated a trade war with Australia.
Computer graphic by Wuheqilin depicting an Australian soldier killing an Afghanistan teenager. Image Credit: Wikimedia
It has also stepped-up its global propaganda efforts, which is becoming more sophisticated and visible especially across social media platforms. At the same time Chinese censorship is increasingly spreading beyond its borders enabled by the sheer size of its market. While it remains to be seen if the usual Western estimates that this ‘Wolf Warrior diplomacy’ or ‘diplomacy or indignation’ are indeed signs of a ‘looming economic and political crisis’ at home, it is safe to say that relations with China will be more turbulent going forward.
Of protests and people power
While it was no surprise that pro-democracy protests continued in Hong Kong this year, the outbreak of student-led protests in Thailand since February has been more surprising. Young activists from both countries have joined with counterparts from Taiwan to form the ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ in defiance of authoritarian rule and suppression of dissent. India started 2020 with nationwide protests against a controversial Citizen Amendment Act, which ended only due to the national lockdown to control the pandemic, and is ending the year with the largest protest in human history by farmers against proposed legislation. Protests against systemic racial injustice and police violence also unexpectedly but quickly spread across the US this year.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day 2020. Image credit: Flickr/Studio Incendo
The optimism surrounding the triumph of liberal democracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union has given way to concerns about democratic backsliding in recent years. Studies observe a noticeable decline in many major democracies, including India and the US, since around 2015. Although the motivations underlying the protests in Hong Kong and Thailand are different from those in India and the US, in all cases they indicate growing popular dissatisfaction with prevailing institutions and political leadership in each country. It is not just authoritarian systems, but also democratic systems that are losing legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens.
These trends may worsen in the coming years as societies confront the long-term consequences of the pandemic. Many industrialised democracies, especially in Europe, have already witnessed anti-corona protests. Rising unemployment and hunger, and inequalities in healthcare access, could fuel more dissatisfaction. Indeed, countries across the Indo-Pacific including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines, and even the US face a high risk of civic unrest in 2021.
The United States’ continued fall from grace
With Donald Trump escalating the Persian Gulf Crisis even as his impeachment was unfolding in the Congress at the start of the year, many observers rightly pointed to the 2020 presidential election as an important event to follow. And yet, despite the election of America’s first female Vice President (and notably a woman of colour) this landmark election was hardly America’s biggest story this year. Instead, what shocked people across the world was the Trump administration’s colossal mishandling of the global pandemic at the start of the year, and the violence surrounding the Black Lives Matter protests this summer. What followed was one of the most contentious and petulant elections in US history.
US Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris: Flickr/BidenForPresident
While Joe Biden has now cemented his victory with the electoral college vote, his administration faces many uphill battles. The US has begun the long process of vaccinating its people against COVID-19. But mitigating the hardships imposed by the pandemic — unemployment, hunger, poverty — will be an arduous task for the country’s policymakers, and the numbers are not good. At the end of November, nearly 20 per cent of adult renters were behind on rent, one in six Americans may experience food insecurity by the end of the year, and unemployment is rising as workers are being made redundant at record levels. The risk of civil unrest in 2021 if living conditions continue to worsen is particularly high given the widespread protests already witnessed in 2020.
The Biden administration will also have to begin restoring some of the credibility the US has lost abroad. In addition to the damage done by Donal Trump’s persona and approach to international politics, the US’ domestic state of affairs this year has done much to tarnish the country’s image and its promise. Indeed, polls show that unfavourable views of America are at a historic high among many of its closest allies across the world. Whether it can regain some of its stature and reclaim its global leadership mantle will depend very much on how well the incoming Biden-Harris administration tackles the monumental challenges at home. Will the Biden administration be able to spearhead a program of national reconciliation and healing?
The Indo-Pacific comes of age
The Indo-Pacific has become the new epicentre for geopolitics. Japan introduced its ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy’ in 2017, and Australia and New Zealand started recalibrating their China policies around the same time. The US and France unveiled their strategies in 2019 and Germany and the Netherlands followed suit this year. While the Indian government does not release similar strategic documents, its senior leadership has openly recognised the value of multilateral cooperation on this basis.
China’s recent assertive turn appears to be providing the impetus for countries outside the region, most notably in Europe, to jump on the Indo-Pacific bandwagon. A recent survey of public opinion in 13 European countries found significantly negative perceptions of China in 10 of these. While trade with China continues to be valued, China’s military, effects on the global environment, and particularly its effect on democracy in other countries are perceived causes for concern.
However, the various countries involved — and indeed, there are many — seem to have different perceptions concerning the regional order and may be attempting to pursue incompatible aims. Perceived as a largely US-led effort to balance China, major power strategies could put South East Asian countries in an increasingly difficult position. At the same time, efforts so far are a patchwork of numerous bi- tri- quadri- and multilateral efforts. It remains to be seen whether all this momentum will amount to more than merely a passing fad.
Good riddance?
This year has brought unimaginable pain to millions worldwide. The unprecedented global vaccine research and development effort is perhaps the only bright spot in 2020. One can only hope things will start looking up in 2021 or I for one would welcome our new alien overlords. While we wait to see what the new year has in store for us, I wish you a healthy holiday season and einen guten rutsch ins neue jahr (a good slide into the new year)!
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Manali Kumar is an International Postdoctoral Fellow with the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. Her current research explores how India's national identity and interests have changed with its emergence as a rising power. She is also the Associate Editor of the 9DASHLINE. Image Credit: Flickr/7CO