Thailand protests: What next for the junta, and the monarchy?

17 August 2020

At least 10,000 people took to the streets around the Democracy Monument in Bangkok on 16 August, resulting in the largest protests seen in Thailand since the military’s coup d’etat in May 2014. Unlike other protests that have taken place in the past few weeks, this was a broad-based demonstration, which included both students and Red Shirt supporters of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Of growing concern to the military-backed government, however, was the number of smaller protests that occurred in dozens of cities around the country. This reiterates the fact that the protests are not simply students from elite universities acting out in Bangkok but is instead evidence of a significant generational schism underway.

Why have the protests erupted now?

Firstly, there is a growing frustration that after holding power for five years, the military junta continues to cling to power and disenfranchise the electorate. The government of Prayut Chan-o-cha holds little in the way of legitimacy.

The 2017 constitution, as drafted by the military, was designed to weaken Thailand’s political parties. It established a hand-appointed senate and eliminated any independent checks and balances. The military regime gerrymandered National Assembly seats, disbanded opposition parties, jailed opposition politicians, and rigged the party-list system. The parties that garnered a plurality of the vote never had a chance to form a coalition while the military-backed party could only govern because the 250-man appointed Senate voted en block for Prayuth Chan-o-cha to serve as prime minister.

Since the March 2019 “election”, the government has continued its assault on opposition figures, including Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who dominated the youth vote, and disbanded his party.

The government has increased the use of vague national security laws to harass regime opponents, in one case mimicking Soviet policies by sending someone to a psych ward.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted politics as well. After initial missteps, Thailand has responded well to the pandemic. There have been just 3,377 cases and only 58 deaths, though it was the first country outside of China to record no new cases of COVID-19. This success, however, was due to the country’s good public health and medical systems, despite the government’s actions.

Thailand’s economy, however, has contracted by some 8.1 per cent due to the collapse of the tourism sector which represents 18 per cent of GDP, declining exports, and imploding domestic consumption. A forthcoming Asia Foundation report estimates that 70 per cent of the Thai workforce has seen a 47 per cent decline in income.

An estimated 2-3 million people have lost their jobs.

The pandemic has also exacerbated already high rates of economic inequality. And we should note that inequality has soared since 2006 when the Thai military staged yet another coup. Since 2006, civilians have led the government for only four years. The military and ultra-royalist elites have enriched themselves at the expense of everyday citizens, and today, the Thai people are suffering. Any policies that would alleviate the economic pain invariably go against the interests of the elites.

The cabinet reshuffle announced this month solves nothing, nor improves public confidence in the prime minister.

And clearly, the protesters have been inspired by the courage of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and even Minsk.

What do the protestors want?

The speeches by protest leaders on Sunday kept their demands in the political sphere. They demanded a new constitution, the dissolution of parliament, the abolishment of the senate, the permanent return to barracks for the military, and the end of public harassment of anti-government activists.

Just as important, the protestors steered clear of calling for the reform of the monarchy. This, however, did nothing to allay the paranoia of the regime.

The government is highly insecure about any criticism of the Thai monarchy. Prayuth Chan-o-cha has justified his hold on power as a means to defend the institution of the monarchy, which he believes is under assault from republicans who “hate the nation.”

The military, however, is defending the indefensible in this King, Maha Vajiralongkorn, who commands none of the reverence of his late father is causing Thais to lose respect for the institution. In 2017, King Vajiralongkorn took sole control over the Crown Property Bureau, with its estimated $40 billion in assets, turning what was once a national trust into effectively his private piggy bank. The King, rather than lead his country in a time of crisis, has spent almost the entire pandemic holed up with a large entourage in a resort in the German Alps.

Last week, some student protest leaders publicly demanded that the monarchy be reformed, though their 10-point agenda made no demands that it be abolished, despite draconian laws that prohibit any criticism of the monarchy.

Prime Minister Prayuth has already warned that calls for reform of the monarchy have already crossed the line, warning that they were “inciting turmoil”. The Royal Thai Army chief, General Apirat Kongsompong, has repeatedly threatened to throw a coup if he sees any threat to the monarchy. In the King’s latest perfunctory return to his Kingdom, he called for “order and peace” but didn’t publicly make a statement on the protestors' demands, but many fear that he signed off on a crackdown.

Even though the protesters have largely avoided the third rail of Thai politics, the military sees any demands for democratic reform as an implicit call for republicanism.

What’s next?

The Thai government is not going to let the current wave of protests pass unchallenged. The protests are an existential threat to the junta. Security forces have arrested three protest leaders in the past week alone, charging each with sedition.

Thailand’s security forces are already trying to find ways to neutralise the protest’s leadership, without having to resort to heavy-handed tactics, violence, and mass arrests, which would fuel further protests and unrest, as witnessed in Hong Kong.

The police have identified 31 leaders of the protests, and though named, many were called in for questioning but tellingly none were arrested — yet.

The government should be expected to move first in provincial capitals and opposition strongholds such as in Chiangmai Mai or Issarn, away from the spotlight of international media. The regime needs to stop the protests from gaining momentum. It will also step up its covert actions, especially in Laos and Cambodia, where opposition figures have sought refuge.

Can the protesters maintain momentum? Can they keep their demands at a low enough threshold to deny the security forces justification to crackdown? Or are they hoping to provoke a massacre that will turn the public on the regime?

The protestors pose an existential threat for the military-backed Thai government, that sees democracy as the gateway drug to republicanism and the end of the monarchy. The military will crackdown. The question is the degree to which they will contain the coercion, or if they want to deter any further unrest.

And sadly, with Washington no longer promoting democracy and human rights, and allies in Beijing that are giving them the political cover and cyber tools to do so, the Thai security forces will probably do just that.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Zachary Abuza is a Professor at the National War College in Washington, DC, where he teaches Southeast Asian politics & security. The views expressed here are his own and not represent the National WarCollege,Department of Defense, or the US Government. Image credit: Victor Dumesny/Flickr.

Pacific9DLAugust 17, 2020Thailand, democracy, ASEAN, Southeast Asia, China