Why now? The India-China confrontation at Galwan

23 June 2020

2020 has proven to be a watershed year, witnessing not only a major blow to public health worldwide owing to the COVID-19 pandemic but also in international affairs, with China emerging as the hegemon of the system. The current superpower the United States stands distracted and looking inward. A result of health and socio-economic crises caused by COVID-19.

In the current COVID-19 instigated world order, Chinese diplomacy has manifested itself in two parts. Firstly the more benign, in the form of aid diplomacy, face mask diplomacy and medical diplomacy. Secondly a more aggressive model, witnessed in the form of wolf warrior diplomacy, as well as outright military aggression as seen in the case of China’s escalated standoffs with Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea, night time drills in the Taiwan Straits and in the killing of 20 Indian soldiers as it seeks to occupy territory in the Galwan valley, which Beijing had hitherto never staked a claim.

While the military conflict between India and China continues to escalate, and the world waits with bated breath for an end to Beijing’s pattern of aggression, it becomes pertinent to question why is China confronting India now?

In 1962 India and China engaged in a bloody border conflict and since then there have been multiple border incursions over the years in contested territories between the two countries, most recently a standoff in 2017 in Doklam, Bhutan. The fact remains however that in the last 45 years, no lives were lost on the India-China border before 2020.

Understanding the ‘why’

In order to understand the conditions leading up to the ‘why now’, it is worth recalling China’s domestic political conditions leading up to 1962. In the 1961, just one year before the second five-year plan ended, it was clear to Mao Zedong that his policies of the Great Leap Forward were a catastrophic failure. Between 35 to 45 million Chinese people died because of the policies of the Communist Party. Instead of the rapid industrialisation envisioned by Mao, the Great Leap Foward produced instead a devastating famine.

The outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, domestic pressures on President Xi Jinping and the emergence of a second round of pandemic cases in Beijing all mean that the attention of China’s domestic audience has to be deflected yet again.

For Mao at that time, the best way to regain power and legitimacy within the powers structures of Communist China was by unifying the nation, especially the armed forces, against an outside enemy. That outside enemy was found in India, which was accused of a forward movement at the border. Similar to conditions in 1961, in 2020, China accused India of building roads beyond its own borders along the Line of Actual Control. The fact remains that the Galwan area, was traditionally a part of the Kashmir princely state and at no point in history has China ever had control over it.

After laying down extensive infrastructure in the form of roads, railways and fibre networks, in addition to deploying military forces, China now has an issue with India doing the same along the Indian side. Similar to China’s accusation against India in 1962, China now claims that India is violating their sovereignty and territorial integrity and trespassing in the Western sector.

With respect to domestic criticism and declining legitimacy of the Communist Party, conditions today are very similar to that in 1961. The outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, the silencing of Dr. Li Wenliang who first warned of the emergence of the virus, domestic pressures on President Xi Jinping and the emergence of a second round of COVID-19 in Beijing all mean that the attention of China’s domestic audience must be deflected yet again, and the nation has to be re-unified against an outside enemy. To assuage domestic anger, India has time and again served the role of a useful, outward enemy, as it is seen as a far weaker foe by the Communist Party compared to Japan or the United States.

Another similarity between today and 1962 is the fact that China seeks to portray India as the aggressor, as it continues to claim that Indian forces were responsible for the conflict between Indian army personnel and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which led to deaths and casualties on both the sides.

The conditions preceding 1962 were tense and several low level conflicts were taking place between India and China even in 1959. As per the transcript of a meeting between the then Soviet Union’s Premier Nikita Khrushchev and Mao Zedong and Foreign Minister Zhou Enlai on October 2, 1959, Khrushchev asked the Chinese side why Indians were killed on the border. Mao replied that India had attacked first and fired for 12 hours, to which Krushchev replied that no Chinese had been killed, even if it were to be believed that India attacked first. The transcripts have since been made public by the Woodrow Wilson Institute International Centre for Scholars.

The question again arises, if one were to believe the latest Chinese account (that India did violate its sovereignty) it can be assumed that India would have benefitted from first mover advantage. Why then was it that Indian soldiers were targeted and killed?

Taking a leaf out of history and to avoid getting caught in its own narratives, this time China stated that several PLA soldiers have also been killed at Galwan. While Beijing has refused to confirm the number of deaths on its side, the Global Times editor in chief stated that the PLA wants to avoid “stoking the public mood” by comparing the numbers. This is clearly an attempt to build a Chinese narrative about India being the aggressor, only this time, social media is also being used for narrative creation, in which the state-controlled Global Times is playing an important role. Chinese netizens have been questioning the numbers, official recognition of the slain, worries for their loved ones at the border in addition to the hyper nationalism that is being created within China through the use of state-controlled media as well as social media. 2020 was also to be the year when an important tenet of Xi Jinping’s China Dream had to be completed - the establishment of a moderately prosperous society as China wipes out absolute poverty.

However, this goal is far from achieved and things have only been made worse by COVID-19. Attention on this front needs to be deflected as well. Therefore, the creation of a foe at their border to display how mighty the PLA and the Communist Party is in protecting China has now become essential. Given the fact that domestic woes for China are here to stay the same may be true for the conflict with India, or at least until such time as a military, economic and diplomatic exit can be found.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Sriparna Pathak is an Assistant Professor and Assistant Academic Dean at the School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University. She is a China watcher and teaches courses on Chinese Foreign Policy. She can be reached by email. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Pacific9DLJune 23, 2020India, Indo-Pacific, China, South Asia, Galwan