What to expect from Biden’s foreign policy? Probably not much – and that’s okay
What to expect from Biden’s foreign policy? Probably not much — and that’s okay
WRITTEN BY AMY E. P. KASPER
17 November 2020
The whole world followed the US election early this November. Web pages were continually refreshed, people learned the names of counties in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and those who previously only knew of Nevada for Las Vegas suddenly had opinions on its ballot-counting speed. But now that the dust has settled and Joe Biden is the President-elect (barring any successful attempts by the Trump administration to contest the result), we can turn to the question of how much a change in administration will affect US foreign policy.
The Trump years began with some chaos and uncertainty but generally settled into a relatively consistent playbook based on ‘America First’ values. An embrace of protectionist policies and a strong-man interpretation of American exceptionalism presented a stark contrast to the liberal world order (America’s previous pet project). However, it would be a mistake to believe this shift was an aberration, and that a return to business-as-usual American foreign policy is even possible.
What Biden has to work with
Trump’s brand of unabashedly ‘America First’ hegemony was spurred by trends that have deep roots. For years there has been a dissonance between American rhetoric abroad and realities at home. While the country regularly claims to be ‘the greatest in the world’, measures of wellbeing such as inequality, education, health, and violence point instead to deep domestic dysfunction. Political and societal polarisation similarly reflects an unstable governing system, which struggles to answer its citizens’ demands for better standards of living. Considering this, putting America first may not be a bad policy to the extent that there are domestic issues of great concern that require immediate attention.
There will likely be a great deal of idealism in Biden’s foreign policy; one example of this is his promise to convene a summit of world democracies within the first year of his presidency. Such a move could start to rebuild key relationships, a talent for which Biden is known.
In this way, although Biden has expressed a desire to return to normalcy, the truth of the matter is that the Trump administration may have done Biden a favour by pulling back and attenuating American dominance on the world stage. With the Trump presidency marking a distinct break with the idea of the US as a benign hegemon and protector of the liberal world order, Biden’s administration has less weight to carry as it executes its foreign policy vision. Indeed, in his acceptance speech, Biden repeated his call for the US to lead by example rather than by power, which hints at a continued isolationist turn — or at the very least, a continued avoidance of interventionism.
So what can the rest of the world expect from a Biden administration? Biden is a classic institutionalist; there are already signs that some of his first moves will be to rejoin the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organisation. Having been a strong advocate for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while vice president, Biden is expected to seek to renegotiate the US’s entry into the trade agreement albeit with a greater focus on labour and environmental issues. As Biden wrote in March this year, “The next US president will have to address the world as it is in January 2021, and picking up the pieces will be an enormous task. He or she will have to salvage our reputation, rebuild confidence in our leadership, and mobilise our country and our allies to rapidly meet new challenges”.
There will likely be a great deal of idealism in Biden’s foreign policy; one example of this is his promise to convene a summit of world democracies within the first year of his presidency. Such a move could start to rebuild key relationships, a talent for which Biden is known. Biden sees foreign policy as an extension of personal interaction, and some of his greatest foreign policy achievements during the Obama years depended on this kind of relational approach. However, such a summit would also serve as a platform for the kind of rhetoric about ideals and values which seems off-key in a world dominated by populism, authoritarian leanings, and extremism. Those hoping that a Biden administration will somehow alleviate these trends should not hold their breath.
As is usual with incoming US presidents, we can expect to see some bombastic behaviour (pun only half-intended) from North Korea, whose domestic struggles have been more transparent than normal in recent months. Given the previous tango with Trump, it is uncertain what Kim will expect to achieve. As vice president, Biden argued that one of the keys to successful foreign policy was to prioritise those threats which are truly existential in nature — a hint that he may treat Kim’s moves as mere “malarkey”.
A continued shift in priorities
Domestic concerns will dominate Washington's priorities, and, while the Trump administration did not birth the far-right movement in the US, it has facilitated the coalescence of their identity and priorities into an empowered and influential faction. Thus — particularly if the Senate continues to be Republican-held — the Biden administration will be faced with enormous pressures and conflicts to deal with at home and may be less inclined to spend valuable political influence on foreign affairs. High levels of domestic pressure may also be expected from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which has a laundry list of reforms with significant domestic backing.
Another factor to consider is the commonly-held wisdom that Biden will likely be a one-term president, out of his own volition. Four years is not much time for responding to a pandemic, economic crisis, climate crisis, and racial injustice — the four priorities which the Biden team has said it will first seek to address. It is enough time for a pivot, but as we saw with the Obama administration, such things take time. New administrations always have to play the cards they have been dealt. After the unprecedented chaos of the Trump years, it is likely to take even longer for the Biden administration to rebuild foreign relations and demonstrate a different kind of international leadership.
It would therefore be wise to approach Biden’s foreign policy with humble expectations. Nevertheless, even small moves such as rejoining the Paris Agreement can be celebrated. A return to the mundane would be uniformly embraced on the foreign stage. Ultimately, an element of predictability and a commitment to multilateralism should be anticipated. And maybe, for now, that is enough.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Amy E. P. Kasper is a doctoral researcher in the areas of human rights and global governance, based at the University of St. Gallen. She is an alumna of Leiden University’s MSc. in International Relations and Diplomacy Programme, and a former Program Officer for the World Affairs Council in Seattle. Image credit: Joe Biden/Flickr