The role of the Nusantara countries in US-China competition
The role of the Nusantara countries in US-China competition
In the corridors of power, strategic competition between the United States and China within the Indo-Pacific has largely been analysed through the traditional prisms of military alliances, balance-of-power politics, and economic rivalry. The US has elevated traditional allies Japan and Australia within its Indo-Pacific strategy while India serves as a counterbalance to China, which, alongside the US, now form The Quad.
None of these actors, however, constitute the political, economic, and religious core of Southeast Asia – a zone of growing strategic importance in the growing competition between Beijing and Washington.
Indonesia and Malaysia (referred to as the Nusantara world in Indonesian-Malay languages) sit at the cross-section of the Indian and Pacific oceans and have become a focal point for the US’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific and China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Nevertheless, their roles in the convergence of American and Chinese strategies have been under-analysed. As both the largest economy and Muslim democracy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, by 2030, is expected to grow to be the fourth-largest global economy. Meanwhile, over the next decade, Malaysia’s GDP is estimated to exceed US$1trillion. Together with their populations, each is larger than any Middle Eastern economy which, in turn, will inevitably have implications for their role(s) as leaders in global Muslim affairs.
As the United States and China compete for influence in the Indo-Pacific, neither great power fully grasps the importance of their management of Muslim-related issues as playing a key role in their relations with the Nusantara world.
In contrast to co-religionists in the Middle East, Indonesia and Malaysia enjoy democratic political systems, diverse and tolerant societies, and robust economic growth. Indonesia’s practice of Nusantara Islam promotes religious tolerance under the principle of pancasila and it constitutes its soft-power diplomacy. Nusantara Islam in Indonesia stands in stark contrast to the ethno-sectarian divisions and violence prevalent in Middle Eastern politics. Saudi Arabia, the traditional leader in the Sunni Muslim world, has created more conflict and destruction, as demonstrated by the global export of its Salafi ideology, sectarian intervention in other countries, and its horrific six-year military adventurism in Yemen.
Leadership amid great power tensions
The Nusantara countries have punched above their weight in contributing to peace building and conflict resolution. Jakarta has not only successfully solved the long-term domestic conflict in Aceh but has also been actively working with Kuala Lumpur within the institutional setting of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to push forward the peace process in the southern Philippines as well as the protection of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Myanmar. Furthermore, Indonesia has worked alongside Qatar, Uzbekistan, Norway, and Germany in promoting peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
As the United States and China compete for influence in the Indo-Pacific, neither great power fully grasps the importance of their management of Muslim-related issues as playing a key role in their relations with the Nusantara world. For Washington, its strategic support for Israel and its subjugation of Palestinian rights have struck a strong negative cord in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur. Both Southeast Asian capitals have been highly critical of US policy towards the Palestinians. Indonesia voiced opposition at the United Nations Security Council to the Trump Administration’s Middle East peace plan, dubbed the “deal of the century,” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed shot down the deal, calling on Trump to resign.
In addition, Beijing’s treatment of Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region has roiled domestic politics in the Nusantara democracies. Faced with enormous domestic social and religious pressure over the Chinese government’s internment of Uighurs, marked by mass protests in Indonesia, Jakarta summoned and questioned the Chinese ambassador over the abuse. The Indonesian government has been actively communicating with China, hoping to play a mediating role and seeking an optimal resolution of the crisis. Mahathir’s re-election as prime minister in 2018 brought more changes in Malaysia’s China policy, especially regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments and the Uighur issue. In late 2018, Malaysia stopped extraditing Uighur refugees to China, instead sending them to Turkey. Kuala Lumpur also called for an independent investigation into the internment camps in Xinjiang.
For Nusantara countries, world-wide Muslim minority rights constitute key foreign policy priorities that, in contrast to Gulf monarchies, are not overridden by national imperatives over regime survival or sectarian rivalry. The Saudis have been hemmed in on speaking out on Muslim minority rights because they want to gain US and Chinese support to advance their regime interests and rivalry against Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for example, pledged to fund Trump’s unilateral peace plan for the Israelis and Palestinians, while also publicly supporting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s terrorism concerns vis-à-vis the Uighurs.
At a time when Middle Eastern governments have largely failed to invest significant political will and resources in resolving pressing Muslim issues around the world, Indonesia and Malaysia have stepped up normative leadership on the Uighur issue. The distinctive position of the Nusantara countries have raised the potential of Indonesia and Malaysia as being the best hope to resist pressure from the Islamic world to support Chinese objectives on the Uighur issue. The United States seems set to promote Indonesian-Malay leadership on global Muslim issues. Washington has repeatedly highlighted the Uighur issue in dialogues with these two countries. This has included raising the issue of Uighur refugees in Malaysia and inviting Indonesian participants to the 2019 US Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom Summit.
At the summit, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the Xinjiang issue the “stain of the century” and announced plans to create the International Religious Freedom Alliance to confront China’s religious persecution. However, ongoing Israeli annexation plans for the West Bank backed by Washington will likely further damage the US reputation in the Nusantara world and undermine US efforts to raise China’s Uighur problem with Indonesian Muslim groups.
Washington’s mixed record on global Muslim issues is a major impediment to fostering stronger relations with Malaysia and Indonesia; left unadjusted, it will ultimately hamper the US Indo-Pacific strategy in maritime Southeast Asia. Beijing could raise the US pro-Israeli policy to sully Washington’s reputation in Nusantara countries. The Palestinian and Uighur issues are Washington and Beijing’s respective Achilles’ heel in their strategic competition in Southeast Asia. Neither Washington nor Beijing has an overwhelming influence in Indonesia or Malaysia. Whichever major power can successfully resolve its policies on these Muslim issues is more likely to win the competition for influence in the heart of the Indo-Pacific, the Nusantara world.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biographies
Haiyun Ma is Associate Professor of History at Frostburg State University and Executive Founder of the Zhenghe Forum based at ISTAC in Malaysia.
I-wei Jennifer Chang is a Research Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C. Image credit: Obama White House/Flickr.