The Indo-Pacific under a second Trump Administration
The Indo-Pacific Under a Second Trump Administration
WRITTEN BY RAUL ‘PETE’ PEDROZO
28 September 2020
Competition between great powers reemerged on the international security landscape during the period of Obama’s second term. Although the 2015 National Security Strategy acknowledged the shift away from a unipolar world, the Obama Administration failed to take concrete actions to challenge China’s malign efforts to replace the time-honoured international order with a new global order favourable to Beijing.
The Trump Administration met this challenge head-on in both the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defence Strategy by recognising the reemergence of great power competition by revisionist powers like China and Russia as the greatest threat to US prosperity and security in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Administration identified the Indo-Pacific region as the priority theatre for the Department of Defence (DoD) and implemented a strategy to increase forward presence, improve capabilities, enhance posture in the region, and leverage and strengthen allies and partners to deter Chinese aggression, maintain regional peace and stability, and preserve the free and open Indo-Pacific.
A second term Trump Administration
If re-elected, President Trump will build on these successes, hold China accountable for its malign behaviour, and preserve the rules-based international order which has proved the cornerstone of peace, stability and prosperity in the region for the past 70 years.
A second administration would continue to demonstrate America’s enduring commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific by continuing to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows. Although high seas freedom of navigation and overflight apply in the Taiwan Strait, China routinely objects to US transits through the Strait as provocative and extremely dangerous. Prior to 2016, US transits through the Strait were the exception, not the rule, thus reinforcing China’s claim of exclusive control over the Strait. The Trump Administration created a new normal by sending warships and military aircraft through the Strait on a monthly basis. During the first eight months of 2020, US warships transited the Strait ten times — consistent with international law.
As China continues to leverage its military modernisation and predatory economic policies to achieve regional hegemony, a second Trump administration would remain committed to upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific that provides prosperity and security for all nations, large and small.
Similarly, in the South China Sea (SCS), the Trump Administration will continue to increase the frequency and complexity of freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) to challenge unlawful maritime claims and defend the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea guaranteed to all nations by international law. Since President Trump took office, DoD has conducted 24 FONOPS in the SCS, the most recent (July 2020) by the USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114). In an unprecedented move the day before the FONOP, the United States officially rejected all of China’s unlawful maritime claims in the SCS, aligning the US position on maritime claims in the SCS with the 2016 award of the Arbitral Tribunal, which ruled that China’s SCS maritime claims had no basis in international law. In 2019, the US Navy conducted the most FONOPS in the SCS in the 40-year history of the Freedom of Navigation Program, and the Administration expects to continue at the same pace in 2020.
If returned to office, the current administration would continue to leverage US allies and partners to supplement US efforts to maintain free access to common domains. After 20 years of imploring other countries to operationally challenge excessive maritime claims, the Trump Administration convinced our allies and partners to share the burden of preserving navigational rights and freedoms, strengthening regional security, and deterring China’s malign behaviour. For the first time in recent memory, Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom conducted transits through the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, Australia, France and the United Kingdom conducted their own versions of FONOPS against China’s excessive claims in the SCS.
Under President Trump, the United States has similarly achieved regional condemnation of China’s unlawful maritime claims by emboldening other nations to publicly oppose China’s illegal Nine Dash-Line. Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have all protested China’s excessive claims in the SCS to the United Nations.
Additionally, trilateral statements by the Defence Ministers and Foreign Affairs Ministers of Australia, Japan and the United States have voiced strong opposition to China’s use of force and coercion to change the status quo in the SCS, as well as China’s efforts to disrupt other countries’ resource exploitation activities in the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. In this regard, Secretary Pompeo has indicated that the United States will support countries who recognise that China has violated their legal territorial and maritime claims, and will provide nations assistance using all the diplomatic tools at its disposal in multilateral bodies or through legal responses. China can also expect that the US Navy and likeminded partners will maintain a presence in disputed waters to deter further Chinese aggression.
A more forward-leaning presence?
A second Trump Administration will also continue to maintain a robust US forward presence in the region. Although the US Air Force has ended its Continuous Bomber Presence in Guam, strategic aircraft from the mainland routinely conduct missions and exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. China can also expect to see an increasing number of unilateral and multilateral naval exercises and cooperative deployments throughout the region to improve interoperability with allies and partners, deter Chinese malign activities in the East and the South China Sea, reinforce America’s commitment to the rules-based international order, and keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.
The DoD will fully implement ongoing force posture initiatives that strengthen alliances and partnerships and postures US forces to quickly respond to future crises through the Indo-Pacific. Despite the global coronavirus pandemic, the ninth iteration of the Marine Rotation Force - Darwin deployed to Australia in June 2020 as a tangible demonstration of the sustained commitment to the Australia-US alliance and combined presence in the region. Under Trump’s leadership, the force has grown from 200 Marines in 2012 to 2,500 Marines in 2019.
A second term would, additionally, foster and build new security relationships with non-aligned states that share a common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region and a mutual commitment to preserving the rules-based order. Over the past three years, security engagement with Vietnam has grown exponentially. US aircraft carriers conducted port calls in 2018 and 2020. Vietnam received $52.86 million in defence articles, has over $130 million in active Foreign Military Sales programs, and received more than $150 million in security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing program (to include the transfer of two refurbished US Coast Guard cutters and 24 fast patrol boats). An additional $35 million in equipment and training has been provided to enhance Vietnam’s maritime domain awareness.
The Trump Administration also recognises the importance of Oceania to a free and open Indo-Pacific and will continue to engage nations that have fallen victim to China’s predatory economics to ensure their future security and prosperity. Under Trump’s leadership, the United States substantially increased engagement with Pacific Island nations to unprecedented levels. Vice President Pence visited Papua New Guinea and Secretary Pompeo has visited the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Increased foreign assistance will focus on promoting regional security and stability, advancing sustainable growth, addressing environmental challenges, and responding to natural disasters. The United States has also started negotiations with the FSM to amend certain provisions of the Compact of Free Association (due to expire in 2023) to maintain the longstanding relationship between the two countries.
In short, as China continues to leverage its military modernisation and predatory economic policies to achieve regional hegemony, a second Trump Administration would remain committed to upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific that provides prosperity and security for all nations, large and small, consistent with long-standing international rules and norms, and principles of fair competition.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Captain Pete Pedrozo, USN (Ret.), is the Howard S. Levie Chair on the Law of Armed Conflict at the US Naval War College, Stockton Center for International Law. On active duty, he served as the Staff Judge Advocate, US Pacific Command and was a special assistant to the Under Secretary of Defence for Policy. The opinions expressed in this paper do not reflect the views of the US Government, Department of Defence or the Naval War College. Image Credit: The White House/Flickr