The emerging US-Vietnam partnership: function over formality?
The emerging US-Vietnam partnership: function over formality?
WRITTEN BY HANH NGUYEN
25 July 2020
This year marks the 25th anniversary of the normalisation of bilateral relations between Vietnam and the US. Forty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War, US-Vietnam relations have been transformed into a growing and sustained partnership.
In 2019, Vietnam’s exports to the US reached over US$66 billion with a trade surplus of over US$55 billion. The US continues to be Vietnam’s largest export market and Vietnam was the United States' 12th largest supplier of goods imports in 2018. The growing US-China trade war has contributed significantly to increased bilateral trade as businesses relocate from China to Vietnam in order to avoid tariffs.
The diplomatic front was marked with a flurry of visits from both senior officials and statesmen with President Trump twice visiting Hanoi in his first term. In addition to official visits, the US-Vietnam Political, Security and Defence Dialogue, which was established in 2008, has enabled senior officials to discuss the trajectory of bilateral relations and work through other key issues. Even on security and defence, which was characterised by slow development and cautiousness from the Vietnamese side, has seen both countries manage to accelerate cooperation. Along with the 2016 lifting of a sales ban on lethal weapons and subsequent port calls by US Navy warships, the US has provided Vietnam with maritime security assistance through programs like the Maritime Security Initiative, the Cooperative Threat Reduction, and Foreign Military Financing.
Strong support but still just a comprehensive partnership
These developments suggest an evolving partnership. While America's image has taken a hit under the Trump administration, the Vietnamese public retained strong support for the US according to surveys by the Pew Research Centre and ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. Nevertheless, bilateral relations remain, surprisingly, at the level of ‘comprehensive partnership’ which was established in 2013. This designation effectively put the US in the same group with Argentina, Brazil, Denmark, South Africa, Ukraine and Venezuela, countries with which Vietnam previously established comprehensive partnerships. While cooperation between Vietnam and these countries is substantial, it is not at the same level as that of the US-Vietnam.
While US-Vietnam relations lack the official designation of a strategic partnership, the substance of bilateral cooperation is already at this level. As China continues to press its territorial and strategic ambitions in the South China Sea and Sino-US relations deteriorate, US-Vietnam ties will continue their upward trajectory.
At the same time, experts often characterise Vietnam’s foreign policy as a balancing act between China and the US. Vietnam has deliberately nurtured a close partnership with the US in order to counter China’s rising influence and territorial ambitions in the South China Sea. This strategic calculation has cemented America's status as a critical partner in Vietnam’s foreign policy. China's 2014 deployment of the HYSY 981 oil platform to disputed areas in the South China Sea triggered a major crisis in Sino-Vietnamese relations. The following year Vietnam and the US signed the Joint Vision Statement on Defence Relations.
The era of cooperation
Bilateral defence cooperation has since accelerated. With the support of the Foreign Military Financing program, the United States funded the transfer and acquisition of a former US Coast Guard cutter and 24 Metal Shark fast patrol boats. Vietnam also received US$26 million under the Asia Maritime Security Initiative which bolstered its maritime capacity and domain awareness. Vietnam also joined RIMPAC and is scheduled to participate in the 2020 exercise. Following the election of Donald Trump, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc became the first Southeast Asian leader to visit him, underlining the importance of the US to Vietnam.
The discrepancy between the nature of cooperation and its official title has raised questions as to why bilateral ties have not been elevated to that of 'strategic partnership', something more reflective of its growing importance. It should be noted that, unlike Vietnam, the US does not have a tradition of ranking partnerships with countries in the region through designations like 'comprehensive' or 'strategic'. In official documents, the US refers to its relationship's in the region as either 'alliances' (if they have a treaty) or 'partnerships'. Vietnam falls into the latter category as a new regional security partner.
Progress, yes — though old suspicions die hard
One possible reason is that Vietnam does not want to displease China - its critical economic and political partner. China is Vietnam's largest trade partner and Vietnam relies on its northern neighbour for materials and equipment for its manufacturing sector, which leads to a staggering trade deficit of US$31 billion. Shared culture and history, similarities in political ideologies and systems also contribute to China’s importance in Vietnam’s foreign policy. As a result, Vietnam designated its relations with China as a 'comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership', the highest accolade in its diplomatic relations.
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the risk of being too dependent on Beijing compel Hanoi to nurture and expand cooperation with Washington while it continues to show symbolic deference to Beijing (when necessary). Thus, its decision to not elevate ties with Washington to that of strategic partnership can be understood as part of a prudent and utilitarian approach to Beijing. This strategy is rooted in Vietnam's historical interplay with China. Being a smaller and weaker neighbour of the regional hegemon, Vietnam has learned the best strategy for survival in China's shadow is a combination of deference and resistance.
The lack of a US-Vietnam strategic partnership may also stem from the level of trust Hanoi holds toward the US. While this has improved significantly, Vietnam still harbours suspicion, especially given the criticism of its human rights record. This has reinforced concerns amongst Vietnamese leadership, particularly within the conservative wing of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP), that US support for democracy and human rights in Vietnam is a cover to undermine VCP rule. Despite US President Obama’s assurance that the US would respect Vietnam’s political regime, trust remains a significant issue in bilateral relations.
New ties but an uncertain future
Nevertheless, Vietnam’s tactical deference could well change depending on developments in the South China Sea. As countries in the region remain occupied by the COVID-19 pandemic, China has seized the opportunity to advance its position vis-a-vis the maritime dispute. It has engaged in standoffs with Malaysia and Indonesia, reportedly sunk a Vietnamese fishing vessel and announced new administrative units in the Paracel and Spratly Islands. This new level of aggression followed patterns of Chinese maritime activities last year, in which it successfully prevented and harassed other claimants’ activities.
Currently, Vietnam’s response has been measured, with rhetorical condemnations of China’s actions and a note verbale rejecting its territorial claims. Should China decide to dramatically change the status quo and declare an Air Defence Identification Zone in the South China Sea (which it has hinted towards) this could force Vietnam to rethink its current strategy and initiate steps towards closer cooperation with the US - both in name and action.
The bottom line is, while US-Vietnam relations lack the official designation of a strategic partnership, the substance of bilateral cooperation is already at this level. As China continues to press its territorial and strategic ambitions in the South China Sea and Sino-US relations deteriorate, US-Vietnam ties will continue their upward trajectory.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Hanh Nguyen received her MA in International Relations at International Christian University, Tokyo. Her research interest includes Vietnam's foreign policy and US-China relations. She is a fellow under the Japanese Grant Aid for Human Resource Development Scholarship (JDS). She has written for the Pacific Forum (with Dr. Stephen Nagy) and the East Asia Security Centre. Image credit: US Department of State/Flickr.