SAARC isn’t the answer to COVID-19 in South Asia
SAARC isn’t the answer to COVID-19 in South Asia
WRITTEN BY MANALI KUMAR
4 May 2020
By 3 May 2020, 73,554 cases of COVID-19 and 2,020 deaths had been confirmed across South Asia. These numbers are low for a region that is home to nearly two billion people and some of the most densely populated areas in the world. While the likely reasons for this remain a subject of debate, experts suggest low levels of testing could be hiding the true extent of spread. Indeed, most countries in the region are currently testing fewer than 700 people per million. While lockdowns in these counties may have helped reduce the severity of their outbreaks, cases have continued to increase steeply in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh over the past few weeks.
In this context, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative to revive regional cooperation through SAARC has been welcomed by the international community and praised by policy commentators. During the first videoconference of regional heads of state on 15 March, the first such meeting since 2014, Mr. Modi contended that South Asia could “set an example to the world, for regional coordination to address complex cross-border challenges”. One observer has already declared these Mr. Modi’s efforts an “effective counter to China’s attempts to change the narrative”, and another has called it “a masterstroke to assert India’s leadership” in the region. Yet, what kind of example is SAARC setting?
Already losing steam
Since the first videoconference of SAARC leaders, a COVID-19 emergency fund has been set-up to help meet the costs of immediate actions by member countries. Member states have contributed a modest $21.6 million to this fund so far, including a commitment of US$10 million by India. SAARC’s Disaster Management Centre in Gandhinagar (India) has set up a website to disseminate information and share best practices, and its Development Fund (SDF) has allocated $5 million for Covid-19 related projects in member states.
However, only three high-level meetings have been held to follow-up on the issues raised during the conference of regional leaders on 15 March. The first was a videoconference of senior SAARC health professionals on 26 March, in which community engagement and participation was identified as an important element in stemming the spread of COVID-19. The second was a videoconference of senior trade officials of SAARC countries (except Pakistan) on 8 April, during which some specific measures to facilitate trade were discussed including accepting scanned copies of import clearance documents, release of payments by banks and resolving customs issues at the borders. The third conference on 23 April involved SAARC health ministers, but it is not clear if any measures are being taken that go beyond sharing information.
SAARC lacks the institutional architecture required to facilitate cooperation. New Delhi’s policy towards South Asia has been lax for decades and has not seen any significant progress since 2014. In fact, its strategy of ignoring SAARC due to Pakistan’s membership in that forum in favor of BIMSTEC has left the organization defunct
Meanwhile, India has helped evacuate citizens of SAARC countries along with its own, provided medical equipment and essential drugs to Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and sent a Rapid Response Team of medical professions and equipment to Maldives and Nepal.
These initial measures are important and help create a much-needed sense of solidarity among neighbors, but the momentum has been low. These measures also fall far short of beginning to address the human security challenges thrown up by the COVID-19 crisis and the emerging economic slowdown.
SAARC is not the way forward
South Asian countries face two principal challenges today: ramping up healthcare infrastructure and reviving their economies. The three biggest South Asian countries, which are also the worst affected by COVID-19 so far – Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan – have grossly inadequate healthcare systems. Shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) have already been reported across South Asia. At the same time, their economies are reeling under lockdowns.
A recent World Bank report warns growth in South Asia in 2020 could reduce sharply to 1.8-2.8 percent from 6.3 percent six months ago. There are also concerns about famine in the coming months. With millions of daily wage laborers and migrant workers already rendered jobless due to the pandemic, there are now widespread concerns of starvation across the region. By all accounts, the region could be facing a widespread humanitarian crisis in the coming months.
There are good reasons for South Asian countries to cooperate. However, SAARC does not seem to be the most viable forum to broker regional cooperation. There are few good examples of SAARC cooperation during the 35 years of the organization’s existence. In fact, South Asia is among the least integrated regions in the world. A World Bank report estimates that the region might be losing up to $44 billion in trade each year. But regional trade pacts have long been stagnant.
Disputes and mistrust among its members have stalled cooperation for years, and these issues have not dissipated due to the pandemic. India and Pakistan especially have continued to exchange fire across their border and the Indian army is reported to have conducted precision strikes in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The various political and bureaucratic establishments in the region all have their deep-seated worldviews that have not changed in the past few weeks. Indeed, one former Indian diplomat has already argued it is unrealistic to pursue COVID-19 cooperation through the SAARC secretariat given “what Pakistan has done to harm India’s interests”.
Moreover, SAARC lacks the institutional architecture required to facilitate cooperation. New Delhi’s policy towards South Asia has been lax for decades and has not seen any significant progress since 2014. In fact, its strategy of ignoring SAARC due to Pakistan’s membership in that forum in favor of BIMSTEC has left the organization defunct for the past six years. Crises are times to mobilize existing institutions and re-allocate resources to ramp up capabilities. SAARC has neither and it is unrealistic to expect the organization can be resurrected in the middle of a pandemic.
Policy must trump PR
High-level videoconferences once in two weeks and creating a $21.6 million fund amounting to $0.01 per capita do not translate into ground-level policy impact. SAARC lacks the institutional capability, procedures and expertise required to respond to the human security challenges created by COVID-19. It takes many years of cooperation to develop the rules, norms, and routines that underpin successful organizations and there is little reason to believe there is enough political will to invest in this enormous undertaking.
Instead, bilateral cooperation between India and its neighbors, especially on a sub-regional level in border areas may be the more viable channel forward to begin tackling the grave challenges facing the region. India has preferred bilateral relationships over multilateral diplomacy. Improving border connectivity with Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka on a bilateral basis is one of the few areas of progress under Mr. Modi’s leadership. A collaborative sub-regional approach in cooperation with India’s border states may be more effective to tackle area-specific challenges related to migrant workers, maintaining trade and supply chains across borders, and generating employment by making progress on infrastructure development programs.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Manali Kumar is a Non-Resident Postdoctoral Researcher with the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at the University of St. Gallen (HSG) in Switzerland. Her research focuses on prudence in statecraft, and India's national identity and roles as a rising power. Image credit: Ministry of External Affairs (India)/Flickr.