India’s response to South China Sea tensions
India’s Response to South China Sea Tensions
WRITTEN BY KHUSHNAM P N
17 May 2020
Amidst the lethal COVID-19 pandemic, an intense geopolitical skirmish is underway in the South China Sea. The possible role and policy pursuit of India in this emerging geopolitical battleground is creating a buzz among the scholars and the security strategists who focus on this disputed area of the world. In the evolving story of Sino-American competition in the Indo-Pacific, the question must be asked: what will be the response of India in its own pursuit of power and influence in the post-pandemic order in East Asia?
The origin of the South China Sea dispute goes back to 1945 when Japan surrendered after WWII and China came up with its claims based on the “Nine Dash Line” in 1947, which claimed sovereignty over around 90% of the South China Sea.
China’s recent actions during the COVID-19 pandemic include the ramming and sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat; the approval of two new administrative divisions- Xisha and Nansha (Chinese names for the disputed Parcel and Spratly Islands); the building of an airfield on Woody island equipped with missiles and the transformation of three disputed reefs Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross into effective military bases.
The South China Sea thus has become the centre of the broad geopolitical contest in the Indo-Pacific region with US response to China’s rapid rise. The Trump administration is far more vociferous than the previous Obama administration in its rivalry with China. There is an increasingly entrenched anti-China sentiment in the strategic circle of the US, which was made public with the “National Security Strategy Report”, 2017 which refered to China as a ‘strategic rival’. The growing belligerent rhetorical claims and counter claims as well as actions should be viewed and analysed in this broader context to understand India’s role and policy in the South China Sea.
India is not a party to the disputes with China in the South China Sea and therefore will not seek any approach that may be percieved as ‘meddling’ by Beijing. The priority for India is to preserve the “Wuhan Consensus”
The South China Sea and South East Asia is under Chinese preponderance where it pursues a very aggressive policy. India will continue prudently with its policy of “Non-interference” in the spirit of ‘Wuhan Consensus’. Even the “Act East Policy” of the Modi government is based on the vision of connectivity and development of its North-eastern region and economic diplomacy in the ASEAN region and broader Indo-Pacific space.
So far as India’s specific position on South China Sea and the larger waterways in the region are concerned, it stands for uninterrupted and friendly passage by all maritime actors. Besides, India wants sufficient engagements with ASEAN for economic benefits and to provide the option of autonomy to these countries to deal with the dominant position of China in the region, without offending the latter and risking the belligerence of Beijing. India intends to build economic linkages and strategic capacity which can take care of India’s long-term interests and assume its own position and power in the emerging ‘Asian Century’.
India as a prudent neighbour and aspirational competitor of China is eager to not offend the latter without a direct and substantial reason. India is not a party to the disputes with China in the South China Sea and therefore will not seek any approach that may be percieved as ‘meddling’ by Beijing. The priority for India is to preserve the “Wuhan Consensus” with Beijing, which provides for bilateral cooperation in the areas of mutual interests and a new resolve to reset their approaches and build a mutually reinforcing trust.
Thus, India is concerned with growing confrontation in the South China Sea between China and its Quad partners but it doesn’t share the goals and policy pursuits with the latter entirely. The US is a non-claimant power in the region but wants to ensure an assured uninterrupted freedom of navigation in South China Sea, which is also a part of its Indo-Pacific policy. The US views the Indo-Pacific as critical to its national security and perceives China’s aggressive interconnectivity and win-win cooperation in the region as a major strategic geopolitical challenge. It, therefore, pursues a re-balancing policy by increasing its collective military presence and enhancing quadrilateral strategic cooperation with Australia, India and Japan to maintain its supremacy. India shares the concerns of Washington but importantly not the approach.
The ASEAN Outlook adopted by the 34th ASEAN Summit, provides the common outlook of its members towards the Indo-Pacific based on two principles. First, instead of picking sides in the disputes, they will have a common perspective. Second, they reiterate the regional commitment to respect the rule of international law especially the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This makes it apparent that the group is trying to have leverage with both the rival powers –China and US, maintaining engagement with Beijing and retaining the US and other powers in the region to deal with dominating pursuit of China to ensure their autonomy and sovereign pursuit.
It is pragmatic for India to maintain the “Wuhan Consensus” and ensure its assured dominance in the Indian Ocean region. The Indo-Pacific policy is based on its broad foreign policy approach of ‘Strategic Autonomy’ to have relations with all the powers and power blocks based on national interests. Its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy is intended to build capacity to become an influential and responsible power at the global stage.
A peaceful South China Sea is crucially important India’s economy as around 55% of all the country’s international trade passes through it. The Modi government has followed an astute two-pronged policy- to continue engage China and enhanced connectivity and economic diplomacy with ASEAN. This is based on strategic principle of increasing Indian presence and engagement in the region, without attracting belligerent Chinese response.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Khushnam P N is an independent regional security researcher & analyst. Image credit: US Pacific Fleet/Flickr.