China's new role in the post-COVID-19 era

18 May 2020

The current turmoil unleashed by COVID-19 illustrates that both state and non-state actors (in the new world order likely to appear after pandemic) will undergo a major paradigm shift. The pandemic has begun to cause major changes in the economy, education, and technology. These changes will also herald new geopolitical areas that will emerge after COVID-19 has been defeated.

The focus must now be on who was best prepared for COVID-19? Which countries were able to control the situation by giving a strong response in terms of medical intervention, technological follow-up, and personnel discipline?

Although COVID-19 does not have much in common with the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it can provide crucial clues to measure the strength of China and its response to crises.

In the pandemic process, China's stance can be roughly evaluated under two main headings; Soft power activities and hard power applications. China generally had preferred to apply its hard power in adjacent territories. Adjacent maritime spaces have always been an area where it can apply its power consistently. Mask diplomacy, test kits, medical expert support, and ventilators have been used as soft power elements during COVID-19. Chinese diplomatic missions have shared their experiences about COVID-19 with the public through TV programs and online seminars in various countries.

China has not turned down the new diplomatic opportunities presented by COVID-19. Beijing has joined the struggle against the virus by sending millions of test kits, tons of masks, and medical experts to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

Although we are just at the start of the global pandemic, it can be said that China has been more successful in the fight against the pandemic in comparison with the United States or Europe. China has suppressed COVID-19 almost entirely with its own means. Despite various criticisms, it has also simultaneously sent tons of masks, test kits, ventilators, and medical experts support to countries where COVID-19 has appeared.

China has managed to overcome the crisis without devastating consequences thanks to its huge economic power, technological facilities, and disciplined intervention. The ability to manage the crisis domestically and its financial strength has allowed China to continue its regional and international strategic activities without much disruption.

The US Navy, which still retains hegemonic superiority in the Indo-Pacific, has experienced major disruptions in its deployments to the West Pacific, East, and South China seas during COVID-19. Due to infections occurring at the Yokosuka base in Japan, the USS Ronald Reagan was unable to fully establish her crew. Likewise the USS Theodore Roosevelt had to move from the South China Sea to Guam due to serious cases.

At the same time, the Chinese navy deployed its own aircraft carrier in a deliberate show of strength, sailing from the East and South Chinese seas and into the Pacific, while the U.S. aircraft carriers and crew were busy with COVID-19.

Moreover, China established the administrative regions of Nansha and Xisha under the Sansha city in the disputed South China Sea, launched military rockets, and tested space weapons. It also continued to expand and strengthen its sea base in Djibouti, which provides access to highly strategic sea connections such as the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf. Such actions will provide psychological advantages for China in both political and military dimensions in regional relations with smaller states.

Despite the pandemic, China's ongoing activities are not just about regional or international disputes. It continues its competition with the United States without showing signs of stopping. Thus, it is necessary to ask some questions; If COVID-19 reaches more serious dimensions and impedes the US alliance system in the Pacific, what would China's stance be on Taiwan? What methods will Beijing use to change the status quo in the East and South China seas? Perhaps we will learn the answers to all these questions very soon.

Perhaps it would be more correct to say that a comparison should be made beyond China in terms of the West and East’s response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

For instance, Taiwan and South Korea also had very successful struggles against COVID-19. Compared to Spain and Italy, the situation of Japan has also overwhelming successful. Such a situation can also be evaluated in a way that will reveal the internal crises of both the USA and European countries.

However, although Taiwan and South Korea offer very successful examples against the pandemic in the regional sense, they are incomparable with China in terms of superpower requirements. On the other hand, in the struggle against COVID-19, neither the US nor Europe has been able to respond adequately to the crisis. Even, some of them have been unable to provide adequate medical support, therefore, death rates have reached horrible levels. In Russia, another global power, case and death rates show a dramatic increase day by day. By this trend, Russia can become one of the new bases of the pandemic.

Despite all the criticism, many countries have turned their eyes towards China instead of traditional powers like the United States, Russia and Europe in terms of medical support. China has not turned down these diplomatic opportunities. In this framework, Beijing has joined the COVID-19 struggle by sending millions of test kits, tons of masks, and medical experts to the Middle East, Gulf, Southeast Asian, and African countries.

Moreover, during the pandemic, Chinese embassies and diplomatic missions have performed well beyond the embassies of other countries in transferring medical supplies and aid from China to these countries. This medical aid, which was made without discrimination between allies and the non-allies alike, will bring soft power advantages to China going forward. It can be said that China has carried out a great deal of skill to transform the pandemic process from a soft power disaster to a soft power success.

Conclusion

In the post-pandemic era, financial collapse, resource shortages, and bankruptcies will occur in various parts of the world, including in the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, therefore, such countries will need financial investments to survive. The Middle East and Gulf countries have already expressed these expectations in various ways.

Beyond that, the economies which have suffered destructive damage in the post-COVID-19 period are likely to cause socio-political turmoil in various parts of the world. Although China appears to have a strong position in managing the crisis, both inside and outside, we are still in the process. The COVID-19 vaccine has not been fully discovered. It is not yet possible to predict whether aftershocks will come. Despite all the challenges, Beijing is one of the most powerful candidates with the power to respond, to form new alliances and to further strengthen its existing partnerships that may result in shaping before our eyes of a new world order.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Lokman Karadag is a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at International Islamic University Malaysia. His main research in Chinese Foreign Policy, especially Chinese Foreign Policy during the Xi Jinping. He is presently working on the Chinese foreign policy strategies towards East and South China Seas and geopolitical risk analysis in the Asia-Pacific Region. Image credit: United Nations/Flickr

East Asia9DLMay 18, 2020China, South China Sea, Covid-19