Bangladesh: India’s neighbour to be prioritized above all
Bangladesh: India’s neighbour to be prioritized above all
WRITTEN BY GOKUL SAHNI
31 March 2020
In his March 2020 speech at the Bangladesh Institute for International Strategic Studies (BIIFS) event in Dhaka, India’s Foreign Secetary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s outlined that the India-Bangladesh relationship was, “truly of the highest priority to India”, further noting that “when we say ‘neighbourhood first’ policy, it is ‘Bangladesh first’ for us”. While current headlines indicate that India’s controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has brought some turbulence to an otherwise burgeoning relationship, Shringla added that, “for those of us who are in the business of policy-making, there is little doubt about the abiding reality that we in India will always seek the closest possible ties with Bangladesh”.
But why has Bangladesh become India’s highest priority within the neighbourhood? The answer is a mix of history, geography, economics, strategy, and even national identity.
Reconnecting India
A quick look at the map shows that Bangladesh’s location is of immense strategic and economic importance to India. Unlike the western portion of the state of Pakistan that gained independence in 1947, the separation of Bangladesh - which was East Pakistan until 1971 - caused a major impediment for India’s internal connectivity. India’s north-eastern states were almost cut off from the rest of the country, save the Siliguri corridor, a very narrow strip of land. Barely 27 km in width, the corridor is a strategic vulnerability for India and has been termed the ‘chicken’s neck’. The 4,000 km-plus border between the two countries has also been a contributing factor to the economic isolation experienced in India’s north-east, where almost all consumer goods have to be imported from outside the region.
The current governments of India and Bangladesh have understood the urgent need for greater connectivity in the region and have accelerated a host of projects. Most notably the re-opening of road and rail links that were in use before the 1965 India-Pakistan war, when Bangladesh was East Pakistan.
Bangladesh’s internal waterways provide immense opportunities for India for transportation of cargo - both goods and tourists - between India’s ‘mainland’ and its north-eastern states. The two ports of Mongla and Chattogam have been offered to India for transporting freight through Bangladesh, helping to avoid lengthy detours, and ultimately saving time and money. Cross-border connectivity has even been identified by the Brookings India 2019 Impact Series as the most important diplomatic priority and objective in a recent survey of India’s strategic community.
Could the removal of barriers via these connectivity projects result in softening borders one day? This seems highly unlikely, not least because of the poisoned chalice that the CAA may become for India-Bangladesh relations. However, open borders are not unprecedented for India, which has been operating with porous and open borders with both Bhutan and Nepal since independence. It is quite possible that a future Indian government may repeal the CAA, not demonize illegal Bangladeshi immigrants as ‘termites’, and see the benefits of soft, if not Schengen-style, borders. In a best-case scenario, an India-Bangladesh arrangement where Indian military troops could traverse across Bangladesh to reach the north-east could essentially solve the ‘chicken’s neck’ dilemma.
Bangladesh’s territory, therefore, could be converted from a potential threat to a possible opportunity for India’s strategic and military posture. An enhanced military relationship with Bangladesh, whether through the exports of weapons or the increased training of Bangladeshi cadets and officers in Indian institutions, could even help bring about the creation of collective security in the Bay of Bengal region.
South Asia’s other emerging (middle) power
Bangladesh is the world’s eight largest country by population, a statistic that bears repeating. While its economy is still only the 39th largest in the world, Bangladesh has begun to permanently banish the ‘basket case’ jibe that Henry Kissinger gave it in 1971. Led by a booming $30 billion textile and garments industry and wide improvements across all social indicators, Bangladesh has become the fastest growing economy in the Asia-Pacific, growing at average rates of 8% in recent years.
By 2030, Bangladesh’s GDP is forecast to increase from current levels of $317 billion to $700 billion, roughly the size of Switzerland’s economy today. Even in 2019, Bangladesh’s economy was larger than all 5 Central Asian republics combined. Curiously, despite having a population of over 160 million, Bangladesh is still regarded as a ‘small state’ in the arena of international politics, and is often absent from discussions asking middle powers to take a greater role in helping to maintain the rules-based international order.
Bangladesh will, therefore, become a standout partner for India in SAARC over the next decade in terms of potential economic opportunities. Bangladesh is currently India’s largest trading partner in the grouping with bilateral trade of $10.26 billion in FY19. However, this only makes Bangladesh India’s 26th largest trading partner, behind European countries like Belgium and the Netherlands. A scarcely appreciated fact is that Bangladesh is the overwhelming largest source of foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India, with its 2.25 million FTAs accounting for over 21% of total FTAs to India in 2018. A greater push for connectivity and enhanced economic linkages should see this relationship prosper. Economic asymmetry between neighbours need not be a hindrance for high levels of trade, as the US-Mexico relationship has shown.
Bonds of brotherhood
India’s unique role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 should have set the two countries as permanently close partners, but a host of reasons have prevented this. It appears, however, that there are several reasons for heady optimism for future ties. Prime Ministers Modi and Sheikh Hasina have both gone out of their way to promote India-Bangladesh cooperation, with a noticeable change in how both countries view their stakes in the other’s success.
India and Bangladesh share history, culture, the Bengali language, and people-to-people ties. Indeed, it is surprising that the Indian right-wing, fond of concepts like ‘Akhand Bharat’, are not vociferous supporters of stronger India-Bangladesh relations. Bangladesh provides India with a unique opportunity of reversing the subcontinent’s unnatural partition in 1947, and rejecting the two-nation theory for good. Pakistan’s founder, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, argued that the Hindus and Muslims of India were two distinct nations and could not ‘live together’, a point that some argue is proven by continuing hostilities between India and Pakistan today. India and Bangladesh - formerly East Pakistan and before that East Bengal - can, however, work together to prove that they can live together in peace and prosperity, albeit as two sovereign states.
Little wonder why Foreign Secretary Shringla succinctly noted that, “Quite simply, it is entirely in India's national interest to fully support your own efforts to build a strong, prosperous, progressive, peaceful and harmonious Bangladesh”. Bangladesh is a neighbourhood opportunity for India like no other.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author’s biography.
Gokul Sahni is based in Singapore and writes on geopolitics and geoeconomics, with a particular focus on Indian foreign policy. He holds an MSc in International Relations from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and an MBA from the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. All views and opinions expressed are personal. Image credit: CC BY-NC 4.0/Abdul Momin/Wikipedia Commons.