UAE-Israel peace deal: Will India have to choose sides in the Middle East?
UAE-Israel peace deal: Will India have to choose sides in the Middle East?
WRITTEN BY NIRANJAN MARJANI
28 August 2020
The recent peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates has changed the old equations in the Middle East while giving rise to new possibilities. Following the dramatic announcement by Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s foreign affairs minister, there are early indications of similar agreements being negotiated between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman.
Turkey and Iran have announced their opposition to this agreement, despite Ankara being one of the few capitals to have formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Though some argue that the accord could lead to peace between Israel and the Arab world, rivalry among Muslim countries looks set to continue for some time. The UAE’s decision to seek peace with Israel could lead to Turkey and Iran vying for leadership in the Islamic world by ratcheting up tensions with Israel, especially over the issue of Palestine.
The peace deal has created a unique situation for New Delhi. Since India has been balancing its ties with the Arab world, Israel and Iran, it is important to consider how this developing situation will affect India’s West Asia policy.
India and the Middle East
For decades, three factors have dominated India’s relations with the Muslim countries of the Middle East. One is India’s diplomacy with the Arab world, which can be viewed as appeasement towards India’s minority Muslim population, the second is the issue of remittances from the Indian diaspora in the Middle East while the third relates to the oil trade.
Deepening diplomatic and strategic engagement has resulted in Saudi Arabia and UAE cooperating with India on counter-terrorism issues, which has seen key steps undertaken towards isolating Pakistan in the Muslim world. A fact represented by both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s support for India’s policy on Jammu and Kashmir.
However, India’s relations with the Middle East have evolved significantly. The de-hyphenation in India’s foreign policy is often looked at as only concerning Israel and Palestine. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s standalone visit to Israel in 2017 is considered a key moment in the de-hyphenation of India’s West Asia policy it is important to note this move came on the back of previous efforts. In 1992 India established diplomatic ties with Israel. At that time India had well-established relations with many Arab countries. Over the past three decades, while India has balanced its relations with both, Israel has gone on to become one of India’s major defence suppliers.
While taking into account India’s proximity to the Arab states, it is important to consider the benefit that India derives from these relationships. In the past few years, in particular, under Modi’s premiership, India has developed increasingly close ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has gone beyond the narrow realm of religious connections. India has also been successful in upgrading its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the strategic level. This includes entering into a Strategic Partnership Council Agreement with Saudi Arabia and a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the UAE. Islamist terrorism, often seen as afforded cover by Pakistan and its security agencies, has been a major security concern for India over decades. Deepening diplomatic and strategic engagement has resulted in Saudi Arabia and the UAE cooperating with India on counter-terrorism issues, which has seen key steps undertaken towards isolating Pakistan in the Muslim world. A fact reflected by both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s support for India’s policy on Jammu and Kashmir. This support, though controversial, has further consolidated ties between India and the two Arab countries.
Challenges for India
In addition to the Arab world, India has developed close ties with Iran, the principal strategic rival of Saudi Arabia and the UAE regionally. Central to this relationship has been India’s large scale involvement in the development of Iran’s Chabahar Port. The port represents India’s primary connection to Afghanistan and Central Asia, circumventing Pakistan and its access routes. Chabahar Port’s importance can be realised through its role as a rival to Gwadar in Pakistan, currently being developed by China. While the port has been operational for some time its value to India can be seen through its use in transiting wheat consignments to Afghanistan.
India’s relations with Iran have, however, been subject to the latter’s relations with the US. In 2019 the Washington imposed sanctions on countries purchasing oil from Iran. In January this year, the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by US forces in Iraq posed a stark choice for India between the US and Iran. China’s recent $400 billion deal with Iran which includes oil purchases, as well as investments in infrastructure projects (and an agreement to establish a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership), has presented India with a further set of challenges. Developments in Iran could easily hamper India’s strategy of countering China and Pakistan. While India’s relations with the Arab countries and Iran have distinct characteristics, Pakistan remains an important factor for both sides. With the Arab countries, India has managed to increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan from its principal creditors, while on the other hand, with Iran, it has established a physical presence and sufficient connectivity to enable it to counter Pakistan’s attempts at increased connectivity.
In the past India has been assertive in the choice between rival Arab countries and Turkey. Traditionally it has sided with the Arab world and has countered Turkey diplomatically. But now, with Israel manoeuvring against Iran, the equations have changed, away from the rivalry between the Arab capitals and Tel Aviv and towards the Turkey and Iran axis opposing Israeli policy. Pakistan, again, finds itself out of favour in the Arab world and is siding with Turkey and Iran in opposing Israel.
The present situation will be a significant test of Narendra Modi’s diplomacy in seeking to protect India’s interests with all these actors. If successful, India will, in the near future no longer have to balance its relations with Arab countries and Israel. However, with a new group of irredentist powers emerging consisting of Iran and Turkey, India may soon be forced to choose sides once again.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Niranjan Marjani is an Independent Journalist and Researcher based in Vadodara. His areas of interest are India’s foreign policy, international relations and geopolitics. He writes articles for various national and international publications. His articles mostly focus on the strategic angle of international politics. Image credit: by Ministry of External Affairs (India)/Flickr.