The Unraveling States of America
The Unraveling States of America
WRITTEN BY MANALI KUMAR
2 November 2020
Observers around the world are tracking opinion polls and placing their bets. Will Trump be elected for a second term in office? Or will Biden win and lend some semblance of normalcy? This year and this election will be a turning point for the United States of America (US), irrespective of the outcome.
The year of the rat
The world has watched ‘the greatest country on earth’ spiral into chaos and violence this year. A long and eventful year for the US, 2020 began with the Trump administration’s decision to assassinate Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, sparking a crisis in the Persian Gulf. While it may seem like a foggy memory now, impeachment proceedings against Trump also began that month.
In late-February, the COVID-19 pandemic started spreading across the country, and, by late-March, the Trump administration’s mismanagement of the health crisis was already the focus of global attention. Just weeks later, America was in the throes of its worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression. The pandemic supercharged entrenched divisions based around age-old issues of race, wealth, and ideology.
Trump’s first presidency has not just injured America’s moral standing but has also undermined the country’s credibility among its friends and allies.
In late-May, protests broke out in Minneapolis following the brutal killing of George Floyd and quickly spread nationwide. Most disturbing of all, however, was the extraordinary use of state power against the people. Scenes of policemen manhandling citizens and police vehicles driving indiscriminately through crowds were jarring to democratic sensibilities. The violent race riots harkened back to what was supposed to be a bygone era.
What is ailing America?
It’s been just three decades since leading scholars declared ‘the end of history’ and victory for America’s liberal democratic and capitalist system. The Soviet Union had imploded, the US became the global superpower, and the world was safe for freedom and liberty. Some of that shine would wear off after the 9/11 attacks and Bush’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Despite this, Obama’s election towards the end of the 2000s ushered in an era of hope.
The apparent decline of the US today paints a spectacular contrast to the triumphalism of that era. Leading indices and global rankings have recorded a decline in America’s democracy since 2015. And yet, the election of Donald Trump and the subsequent unmasking of the pervasive ugliness in American society are symptoms of a deeper malaise.
Partisan polarisation has increased in the US over recent decades as both conservatives and progressives have adopted dogmatic positions and become increasingly intolerant of the other’s ideas. A new report notes that the Republican party has given up on key democratic norms and now more closely resembles autocratic parties such as India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). It must be noted that liberals have also become increasingly intolerant of free speech and have seemingly given up on persuasion in favour of illiberal tactics and coercion. Much of this has been aided and abetted by a profit-driven news media that relentlessly pursues ratings over reality.
As America has become embroiled in identity politics – and not without justification – there is no conscionable reason for denying human beings equal rights based on difference such as race, gender, or sexual orientation – the country has all but turned its back on class politics. And yet, income inequality has been increasing since the 1980s and reached record levels in 2018. The wealth gap between upper-income families and those belonging to middle and lower-income groups have also increased during this period. The 2008-09 financial crisis destroyed the livelihoods and retirement savings of millions, and yet, little has been done to hold those responsible to account or prevent similar systematic fraud in the future.
Three decades later, the US is being undone by the very features of its economic and political system that saw it triumph over the Soviet Union. The American experience is a cautionary tale of how unfettered markets and profit-driven individualism does not bode well for liberal democracy after all.
Civil war? – not yet
For the most part, we know what to expect from each candidate’s would-be administration. For Trump, “it is America first, and it always will be” as he announced in a recent campaign ad. If re-elected, Trump’s foreign policy would likely become even more unabashedly self-centred and less cooperative. At home, he will pursue a divisive policy agenda with renewed zeal. A Biden administration, on the other hand, promises a return to the normalcy of the Obama-era, the extent of which will no doubt depend on which party controls the Houses of Congress.
More worryingly, however, regardless of who wins, political violence in America is likely to continue. Scholars and analysts are quick to admonish suggestions that the US is heading towards a civil war. Yet, as the world has watched events unfold on US streets over recent months, collectively, we have been forced to consider whether such concerns are now really so farfetched.
If Trump wins, the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against persistent racial injustice and police violence in America will continue. The protests that marked his first inauguration, led by women’s rights activists in pussyhats, proved to be short-lived. This time around, however, protests against racial injustice and police brutality have already been marked by rioting and violence. The sense of insecurity and persecution felt by these groups will become more urgent if Trump is re-elected. And, emboldened by Trump’s victory, his white supremacist supporters are unlikely to hold back.
On the other hand, if Biden is declared the winner, disaffected Trump supporters are fully expected to protest – first questioning the legitimacy of the election result, especially if Trump and the Republican Party do not immediately concede the election, and then to challenge the authority of the Biden-Harris administration. Recent reports have catalogued how, for several months now, right-wing militias have been organising nationwide. Another report notes that as leading public officials and law enforcement agencies have been reluctant to censure them, these armed groups have become more assertive and pose an increased risk of post-election violence in states across the country from Pennsylvania to Oregon.
A Biden-Harris administration will face the monumental task of rebuilding trust with the American people. But more than that, expectations from the new administration will be high, both at home and abroad. The liberals and especially the progressives would expect Biden and Harris to tackle racial injustice and inequality, deliver healthcare and police reform, and get serious about climate change mitigation. This will be very difficult unless the Democrats control both houses of Congress, and frustrated policymaking will only increase disaffection among the progressives and Independents. Over the last two decades, the Democrats have increasingly struggled to articulate a vision that can unite the many different groups of progressive voters. A Biden administration’s policy successes will no doubt affect the political survival of the Democratic Party.
The world is watching
The United States is heading towards difficult times and needs to get its house in order before it can play any kind of substantive global leadership role. Trump’s first presidency has not just injured America’s moral standing but has also undermined the country’s credibility among its friends and allies.
The world may heave a sigh of relief if Biden gets elected, but his administration will face an uphill task in mending bridges and renewing the US’ commitment to multilateralism. Especially at a time when autocratic and might-is-right rule seems to be gaining popularity across the world, Washington’s ability to claim the moral high ground abroad will rest on its ability to deliver justice and equality at home.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Manali Kumar is an International Postdoctoral Fellow with the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. Her current research explores how India's national identity and interests have changed with its emergence as a rising power. She is also the Associate Editor of the 9DASHLINE. Image Credit: Flickr/The National Guard