Taiwan: Caught between great power rivals
Taiwan: caught between great power rivals
WRITTEN BY NICHOLE BALLAWAR
19 May 2020
In the 20th century, China witnessed far-reaching changes and experienced a series of massive political transitions. The monarchy the system of Chinese emperors ended in 1911 with the Xinhai Revolution and the establishment of the Republic of China (ROC), located now in present day Taiwan, but founded in 1912 as the government of the Chinese mainland. During a time the island of Taiwan or Formosa, was under Imperial Japanese colonial rule, after the defeat of the Qing Dynasty by Japan in the First Sino-Japanese War in 1894-1895. The defeat of the Qing government led to the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki that year, by which it ceded sovereignty of Taiwan to Japan, which ruled the island until the defeat and surrender of Japan in1945.
The 1945 civil war that erupted as soon as the Second World War ended saw a bloody struggle between the Nationalist (Kuomintang) under Chang Kai-shek and the Communists under Mao Zedong. The war led to the defeat of the Kuomintang, which saw the government of the Republic of Chinaflee to Taiwan, where it remains to this day.
Under Japanese imperial occupation, Taiwan was transformed into a modernised economy by the refurbishing of its railways, infrastructure and the administrative systems, which the retreating Kuomintang inherited. The RoC also inherited from Japan a series of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the Chang Kai-shek’s government continued to exercise effective jurisdiction, not just over the island of Taiwan but a number of outlying islands, including Penghu. Between 1949 to 1996, Taiwan was mostly been controlled by affluent families which maintained control over the political, administrative and diplomatic levers within Taiwan’s society and economy. Today however Taiwan is a vibrant democracy.
Though driven from the mainland, China maintained influence international. Until 1971, the position of China on the UN Security Council was held by the RoC until General Assembly Resolution 2758 came into play, which stated that the the Peoples Republic of China, was to be recognised within the UN and its institutions. This resolution expelled the claims made by the Republic of China to be the legitimate government of the mainland and saw Chiang Kai-shek’s representatives removed from across the United Nations and all the organisations related to it. The One-China Policy has thus served to constrain Taiwanese space in the international arena ever since. Every time Taiwan applies for representation in the UN or in a UN body, Beijing heavily contests its entry. China also reiterates that the One–China principle serves as: “A widely accepted universal consensus of the international community “
Undoing the isolation of Taiwan
In 2019, United States Congress passed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPIE) act, under which Washington aims to expand the scope of Taiwan’s formal engagement with international bodies. This act begins to undo the effects of Resolution 2758 by offering a path for Taiwan to engage with international organisations and creates a limited but important geopolitical space for the RoC in global arena. Today, only 14 nations have formal relations with Taiwan, though Taipei maintains unofficial links with dozens more United Nations member states.
TAIPIE explicitly calls out China’s recent actions towards Taiwan as a ‘bullying tactic’. The US also maintains that Taiwan’s standing in the world as democratic society needs to be supported. Above all, the bill also mentions that US will consider reducing its economic, security and diplomatic engagement with nations that undermines Taiwan’s position further, by the same token the US is also pushing hard to provide Taiwan with Observer status at World Health Assembly (WHA), owing to its response to the COVID-19.
In 1979, the United States ended its formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan to strengthen ties with mainland China in order to counter the USSR and widen the divide between Moscow and Beijing. But now the expansion of Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific and the claims for external sovereignty over the South China Sea and Taiwan by the Communist Party has led the US to begin to overturn and unwind the past endeavours of previous administrations to Taiwan’s favour.
The China Dream and Taiwan
China Dream announced by Xi Jinping in 2013 is a programme which intends to make China a great nation once again, and undo the so-called Century of Humiliation that the country endured. Two key years matter regarding the China Dream. Firstly 2021, the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party, where Beijing will have increased incomes to achieve a “moderately prosperous society”. The second is 2049, where on the centenary of the People’s Republic, Chian will be a “fully developed nation” that will overtake the US in areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and fifth generation (5G) information.
By this year, the CCP also states that China will have recovered all the territories lost during the Century of Humiliation, including the Senkaku Islands, the South China Sea, India’s Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh and Taiwan.
With Taiwan situated just160 kilometres from the Chinese mainland, the threat to the RoC is real and growing. The RoC’s Defence Ministry envisions at least six scenarios where Beijing launches an attack on Taiwan. These include an overall amphibious invasion; submarine blockade; a bombing campaign led by China’s air force; saturation strikes by the missile systems located in Fujian & Chechen provinces located near Taiwan and amphibious raids. Moreover, Chinese military exercises near the Taiwanese Islands of Penghu, Dongsha and Matsu has become a regular show of force.
Conclusion
For now at least, both sides are at peace and trading. Taiwan has invested about $280 billion into the Chinese mainland. If Xi Jinping and China does indeed aims to bring about the reunification of the two sides through military aggression, the economic losses for China will be massive with consquences for the entire Indo-Pacific region. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, protests in Hong Kong and wider concerns over economic growth, Beijing despite the rhetoric is faced with only option of proceeding with caution on the issue of Taiwan. Disrupting the status quo across the Taiwan Straits risks not just destabilizing China’s economy but the Communist Party itself.
Whilst Beijing has threatened military force to bring the RoC under its control, and has undertaken a campaign to isolate it internationally involving economic pressure on the handful of remaining diplomatic allies, the US looks set to play a key balancing role.
The strong response from Washington is an important sign. Whilst Taiwan has no formal ties, the two work closely via diplomatic back channels, especially in terms of military cooperation where the US is Taipei’s main provider of equipment. In the near future we might see a new international order post-COVID-19 with rising tensions between China and the US. What remains to be seen however, is if this order is peaceful or if Taipei will be the centre of another tragedy between great powers in the decade to come.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Nichole Ballawar holds a Masters Degree in Political Science from Nagpur University. He worked previously as a Research Assistant at India’s Ministry of External Affairs. Image credit: Office of the President of the Republic of China/Flickr.