Myanmar: a young democracy with a long way to go
Myanmar: A young democracy with a long way to go
WRITTEN BY UDAY BAKHSHI
9 July 2020
As Myanmar heads towards its general elections on 8 November, the plethora of issues the country faces almost certainly guarantees that stability, be it political or with respect to security, is unfeasible. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won the 2015 elections with a supermajority. Although the NLD is expected to win again in November, especially because there is no real political opposition to the party, it is unlikely to receive such a wide mandate again. Three main factors imperil Myanmar’s stability.
The Tatmadaw has too much clout
The power struggle between the NLD and the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s armed forces, is a major source of political instability in the country. At the crux of this is the 2008 military-drafted constitution, which allows the Tatmadaw to appoint 25 per cent of the members of the bicameral Assembly of the Union, effectively giving it veto powers. Along with guaranteeing the Tatmadaw’s role in politics, the constitution also prohibits those with foreign spouses and children from becoming president, a measure specifically designed to block Suu Kyi from the country’s top leadership position.
Myanmar is notably one of the few countries that have been able to resist Chinese pressure. Xi Jinping personally visited the country in 2020, to try to push for progress on the CMEC project. However, while many MOUs were signed, they were all non-binding without legal obligations.
Constitutional reform was an important element of the NLD’s electoral platform in 2015, however, its constitutional powers allowed the Tatmadaw to block the proposed amendments. Although this issue will once again be central in the upcoming elections, the NLD is unlikely to make much progress on its constitutional reform agenda.
Ethnic groups remain wary of the government
The NLD has also been unable to deliver on its campaign promise of peace. Fighting between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) has not decreased in the past five years. In fact, it has dramatically increased in western Myanmar as the Arakan Army (AA) has entrenched itself in northern Rakhine and parts of Chin over the past two years, and has proven itself to be a formidable opponent. In March, the country’s government designated the AA as a terrorist organisation. The significance of this move cannot be understated. The government has labelled Buddhists from a Buddhist minority ethnic group as terrorists, a term that was previously only used for the Muslim Rohingya and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA).
Ethnic groups have reason to remain wary of the authorities. The United Wa State Army (UWSA), the largest insurgent outfit, and one that officially holds territory conducted a show of force in their 2019 parade, that was condemned by the Tatmadaw and government. The government’s efforts to implement the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) has stalled and discussions in the Panglong Conferences have failed to bear fruit. Viewed through this lens, peace seems like a distant dream.
Although Daw (“aunt”) Suu Kyi still commands a lot of respect, this is unlikely to help the NLD per se. The NLD’s preference for hand-picking the chief ministers of each state since coming to power in 2016 is unpopular among ethnic minorities and parties that represent them. They say the central government wields too much power without taking into account local contexts. NLD ministers have also been embroiled in corruption scandals, while the track records of others have been viewed as substandard. All these issues are likely to hurt the NLD in the polls. Suu Kyi herself has somewhat fallen from grace in the international community over the past years. In fact, this is one of the few things that the NLD and Tatmadaw see eye-to-eye on.
The China factor
External factors also contribute to the instability in the country. Myanmar’s biggest trading partner, China, has invested heavily in the Chinese Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It effectively allows China to cut a path to the Indian Ocean without having to go through the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca.
Consequently, China has a strong vested interest in Myanmar’s governance and it has been trying to play multiple sides. It arms EAOs while defending the Tatmadaw and Aung San over the Rohingya genocide. It promises development, while its projects are predicted to flood an area the size of Singapore, destroying livelihoods and the environment locals are dependent on. The NLD knows this and has been reticent to agree to China’s terms. Tatmadaw generals have also criticized Beijing for arming of EAOs. Moreover, the CMEC itself has faced growing public opposition over the years.
Myanmar is notably one of the few countries that have been able to resist Chinese pressure. Xi Jinping personally visited the country in 2020, to try to push for progress on the CMEC project. However, while many MOUs were signed, they were all non-binding without legal obligations. Whether these are implemented remains to be seen.
Stability — not yet in sight
The main opposition, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), only secured 40 seats out of 664 in the Upper and Lower Houses in the 2015 elections and has remained unpopular among broad swathes of the majority ethnic Bamar population. Ethnic minorities strongly oppose the USDP because it is perceived as a conduit for the Tatmadaw (military), which has been engaged in conflict with the EAOs that represent some of these minorities. Although the Tatmadaw retains significant political clout and also draws on the support of hard-line Buddhist groups that have held anti-NLD protests, it remains politically unpopular.
The NLD’s inability to deliver on key electoral promises and heavy-handedness in appointing ministers has eroded some of its popularity, it is nevertheless expected to win the upcoming elections. The NLD also has an advantage in that its ministers have been allowed to begin campaigns as of 01 July while other candidates are still seeking approval.
Yet, significant obstacles remain on the path to stability. Myanmar is a young democracy, and in the long term, it may transition into the full democracy many have hoped it would. Unfortunately, this year’s election is only likely to result in further political infighting.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Uday Bakhshi is a geopolitical risk analyst with a focus on Southeast Asian politics. Image credit: Wei Deng/Flickr.