India’s Taiwan conundrum
India’s Taiwan conundrum
WRITTEN BY PRANAY SHOME
24 May 2020
India finds itself in a diplomatic fix. The deteriorating US-China relationship has forced India to take hard decisions regarding its external relations, at a time when the wider scrutiny of China’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic is intensifying. It should have been a simple proposition for New Delhi, avoid taking sides and try and tame the Chinese dragon, but the difficulty of the current situation has been compounded by the contentious issue of Taiwan.
Ever since the former Chinese leader Chiang Kai-Shek fled to the island of Taiwan when the Nationalists lost the Chinese Civil War to the Communists in 1949, China has been desperate to bring Taiwan back into the fold. China regards Taiwan as a recalcitrant ‘Chinese’ territory with a hostile ‘anti-China’ government in Taipei. Xi Jinping has recently vowed to get Taiwan back, militarily if necessary.
The World Health Organization has become the latest flashpoint between the United States and China, with Washington supporting Taiwan’s entry to World Health Assembly (WHA, the main decision making body of the WHO, which China vehemently opposes.
If New Delhi chooses to support the inclusion of Taiwan to the WHA, it will likely end up antagonizing Beijing at a time when India’s own ties with China are increasingly tense. Xi Jinping has shown himself to be extremely reactive when it comes to the issue of Taiwan and this doesn’t augur well for Sino-Indian ties. India has an unresolved 3,488 km long border dispute with China, the latter claims the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh as a part of eastern Tibet. The recent skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops near eastern Ladakh and western Arunachal Pradesh is a testimony to the fragile stability at the border. India, for its part, is desperate to settle the border issue with the dragon.
The challenge India faces regarding China is this. Economically, India is hugely reliant on China, with the country being India’s second largest bilateral trade partner with bilateral trade finally reaching the historic $100 billion mark this year. Alongside this, Chinese companies such as Alibaba and Tencent Holdings, own substantial stakes in many leading financial and IT companies. According to Brookings India, Chinese inward investment towards the end of fiscal year 2019-20 stood at $26 billion.
Another important aspect influencing decisions in the Modi administration is that China is a hub for many critical raw materials necessary for production of vital commodities. The national lockdown imposed by China to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the early days of the pandemic’s outbreak caused ubiquitous disruption in the supply chains of pharmaceutical, textile and other raw materials heading toward India.
Despite these growing economic ties, China is vying for dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The IOR holds immense strategic value towards India in terms of trade and commerce. If China feels threatened by diplomatic moves undertaken by India, especially in relation to Taiwan, the Communist Party’s leadership will likely up the ante in India’s own neighborhood of South Asia. India doesn’t have the money and strategic depth to take on China unilaterally in this region and will requires the support of its key partners both in Asia and beyond like the United States.
Although US-India relations are currently on a downward trajectory, the strong nature of India’s ties with the world’s sole superpower cannot be discounted. The United States has risen to become India’s largest trade partner and the third largest provider of arms and ammunition. Alongside this the US has played an important role in supporting India in the United Nations on a range of issues; whether it be the vetoing of a Chinese resolution seeking international mediation in the J&K following the abrogation in Article 370; or turning a deaf ear to the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The US however is pursuing a more forthright approach towards Taiwan and the WHA as previously mentioned.
Thus regarding the WHA, New Delhi does not recognize Taiwan as a separate entity nor are there any plans in place for it to do so. That being said there is no basis for conflating Taipei’s presence as an observer at WHO proceedings with India’s consistent “One China” policy. India can’t afford to cede to Beijing a veto over its approach to multilateral issues, whatever the economic conditions.
A sensible middle path for India would lie in the apolitical appreciation of the specific technical issues involved in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, where Taiwan has proven willing to share its expertise. The ambition for the policymakers in South Block on the issue of Taiwan is to maintain the current tightrope walk between the US and China without antagonizing the other. New Delhi needs to communicate clearly and convey the message to both the economic behemoths, with which India is caught between, that the state will craft its own foreign policy in accordance with the requirements of its strategic concerns relating to COVID-19. At the same time India needs to revive the lost credibility of the tainted global health body and to work hard with partners like Taiwan, to put up a united front against the pandemic ravaging humanity.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Pranay Kumar Shome is currently pursuing his Bachelor degree in Political Science with specialization in International Relations from Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India.Image credit: Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)/Flickr.