Putin's Russia: The forgotten Pacific power

5 April 2020

Most Pacific basin states are now seized in some matter with the rise of Chinese political and military power in the region. Even NATO at its December Summit placed greater emphasis on confronting Chinese ambition and countering it military power now spreading out of the Pacific and Indian Ocean and beyond. While everyone seems to be focused on the Chinese phoenix, there is another military Great Power on the rise in the Pacific that also challenges the liberal world order and the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies and that is Vladimir Putin’s ‘Russian bear.’

Russia has been rearming and reinserting itself into global affairs and international security with a vengeance since Putin’s emergence as a political ‘strongman,’ leading some observers to rightfully question Russia’s impact on security of Pacific states.

In short, Russia’s return as a player in the Indo-Pacific is significant and when coupled with Chinese military and political power, a serious threat to United States of America and its Pacific allies. Russia has several key foreign policy goals including deepening its strategic partnership with China, strengthening relations with other major regional powers, advancement of economic interests, re-establishing its great power role in a key region of the world. As western countries have pivoted to Asia and a rising China, so too has Russia. The two states have much in common in that they both resist the current global order and they both want to counter the United States.

In fact, it is consistent with the twenty-year old Russian foreign policy doctrine formulated by its former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. The Primakov doctrine sets out the view that a unipolar world dominated by the United States is unacceptable to Russia and offers the following guiding principles for the conduct of Russian foreign policy: Russia should strive toward a multipolar world that can counterbalance American superpower, Russia should insist on its primacy in the post-Soviet space, Russia should oppose NATO expansion into its former states in Central and Southern Europe. In Russian President Putin’s view, Asia will be the heart of global economic competition and great power competition and Russia has strategic interests in the reason.

Since 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a visible use of Russian military power in Georgia, Ukraine and Crimea in 2014, and Syria in 2015.[4] In 2013, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov in the so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine” outline his view of future war writing that the line between peace and war was virtually non-existent in today’s world of continuing conflict and great power competition called “Political War.”

Russian naval forces in the Pacific are built around a force of four nuclear-powered strategic ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), some 15 nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGN) two of which are in long-term maintenance, five nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and seven conventional-powered patrol submarines (SSK).

Within this concept he revived the Soviet-era ‘Active measures’ campaign against rival states employing forces and assets just short of the threshold for open conventional war or what NATO would term ‘Hybrid Warfare.’ Without doubt these concepts apply to Pacific basin states as they do to the United States and Europe.

Russian Pacific military power

Political War not withstanding Gerasimov made clear that The Russian States security ultimately rested with Russian conventional land, air sea and strategic nuclear forces. To that end the Russian Republic maintains a large convention ground force along with strong air and sea capabilities. The military remains a mix of both conscript and professional military personnel.

Additionally, Russia has robust nuclear forces and continues to be the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The Kremlin’s intervention in Syria has demonstrated that Russia continues to be able to deploy conventional forces close to it borders, and to sustain them at a high operational temp. Russian intervention in the Crimea and Georgia demonstrated Russia’s ability to rapidly intervene in states in its ‘near abroad.’

Russia’s Pacific Command, the Eastern Military District Headquarters at Khabarovsk, maintains robust military forces. By the end of 2019, Russia has sent 6,240 new pieces of military equipment to the Eastern Military District.

The ground forces are built around one motor rifle division, a Spetsnaz special forces brigade, two air assault brigades, eight motor rifle brigades and one armored brigade with several supporting artillery, engineer, air defense, logistics, nuclear biological and chemical, brigades. Russian air forces include, three fighter regiments, two ground attack regiments, one intelligence surveillance regiment, two transport regiments, almost two brigades of ground attack helicopters and six regiments of air defense ground-based surface to air missile systems.

By mid-2018 Russia had deployed some 300 new and modernized fixed-wing and rotary wing aircraft to the Eastern Military District. Additionally, Russia holds some eight motor rifle brigades in reserve and has deployed four short-range ballistic missile brigades armed with the Iskander missile system.

Russian naval forces in the Pacific are built around a force of four nuclear-powered strategic ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), some 15 nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGN) two of which are in long-term maintenance, five nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and seven conventional-powered patrol submarines (SSK). The surface fleet maintains one guided missile cruiser, two guided missile destroyers one of which is in refit and two missile frigates, as well as 27 coastal combatants, eight mine warfare ships and nine amphibious vessels dedicates to its two naval infantry brigades.

In addition to Russian air forces, naval aviation assets boast a fighter squadron, three attack helicopter squadrons, one squadron of Tu-142 Bear strategic bombers, and supporting transport and electronic warfare fleets. The Sea of Okhotsk remains a protective bastion for Russia’s ballistic missile submarines. Lastly, the Russian Navy maintains two anti-ship missile brigades in the region for coastal defense. By 2026 Russia is expected to deploy some 70 new warships to its Pacific Fleet.

While Russia maintains powerful ground and air forces in the Pacific region it is its naval surface, sub-surface and air units that are its chief means to project power in the region. It should be noted that Russia’s revival of the Cold War-era (1947-1991) Zapad and other mass strategic drills have been geared to maintaining high readiness to the point of maintain units across all services and the country on a war footing.

Russia’s largest show of military power in war games in more than 30 years took place in the Far East in the Vostok 2018 exercises involving 270,000 personnel, 1,000 aircraft and some 80 warships. Chinese forces participated in the Vostok war games as a show of strategic partnership. Russia started in 2018 with annual naval exercises on an annual basis first in the Mediterranean Sea, then the Norwegian Sea in 2019. The Russian Navy has also carried out long-term deployments in the Mediterranean, India, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans before returning to home waters. Russian submarine and strategic aviation have returned to near Cold War levels. Russia remains one of the Pacific region’s largest arms exporters with over 60 percent of its 45 billion US in sales going to the region. On the diplomatic front, Russia is currently pursuing closer ties with China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Fiji, and North Korea.

Target States

The Kremlin has targeted the United States and its principal allies in the rejoin including Australia, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. During early June 2019, a Russian destroyer engaged in a near collision with the US cruiser the USS Chancellorsville forcing the American warship to take evasive maneuvers to avoid an incident. Russian strategic aviation assets routinely probe United States air defenses around Alaska and the United States west coast.

In May 2019, four Russian Tu-95 strategic nuclear capable bombers and two Su-35 fighter escorts flew off the Alaskan coast and the Aleutian Islands. One day later United States fighters intercepted two more Tu-95 Bear bombers off the Alaskan coast. In August Canadian fighters intercepted Tu-95 Bear bombers over the Beaufort Sea.

As well, Russia conducted a naval task group exercise off Australia’s northern coast in 2014, strategic bomber exercises from an Indonesian air base in 2017, and increased espionage activities that resulted in two Russian spies under diplomatic cover being expelled from in 2018. Russia even paid a ship visit to Papua New Guinea, the first of its kind.

In terms of Japan, Russia has fortified its holdings in the seized Japanese Kuril Islands with anti-ship cruise missiles and fighter aircraft. Russian warships routinely transit the Soya Straits and Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers patrol around Japan along with Su-27 fighters and A-50 Russian airborne early warning aircraft. It is important to note that Russia’s Vostok 2010, 2014, and 2018 war games were held near Japan and South Korea.

Russia and China launched joint naval drills in 2012 and have since then conducted joint drills off Qingdao in 2013, Vladivostok in 2013, Shanghai in 2014, Sea of Japan in 2015, South China Sea in 2016, Sea of Japan in 2017 and Yellow Sea in 2018. China and Russia have conducted joint naval exercises in the South China Sea in 2016 in support of Chinese claims there, The Sea of Japan in 2017 to oppose a United States invasion of North Korea.

Lastly, in August of 2019, Russia and China conducted a joint strategic aviation exercise with two Russian Tu-95, and two Chinese H-6K strategic bombers, and their fighter escorts. They were supported by a Russian A-50 and Chinese KJ-2000 airborne early warning aircraft over South Korean and Japanese territory. This tense situation led to South Korea firing 360 warning shots and flares in one incident to warn off the threatening aircraft.

The joint Russian Chinese strategic aviation flight also flew near the Japanese-administered Senkakus Islands that are also claimed by China and Taiwan. The flights raised alarm among the United States most import Western Pacific allies and is believed to have been geared towards dividing the United States from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. This is consistent with Russian foreign policy goals in its attempts to subvert NATO and separate the United States from its long-time allies on the continent.

At the end of the day, we are closer to the ‘end of the beginning’ on Russia’s return to Asia-Pacific region than the ‘beginning of the end.’ Russia’s re-engagement is more a product of self- interest and a recognition that its western-oriented foreign policy must change and pivot to Asia as other great powers have. To be fair Russia faces more significant threats in Asia-pacific than it does in Europe or even Central Asia and its soft underbelly.

It has the United States to contend with, the Kremlin has a conflict with Japan over the Kuril Islands seized at the end of the Second World War (1939-1945), and its strategic partner, China, could with ‘the flip of a coin’ become a very demanding adversary over parts of Siberia and Western Russia. China has a thirst for oil and other minerals that Russia could easily fill. To quote Thucydides, “Now the only sure basis of an alliance is for each party to be equally afraid of the other.”

For now, the two are seemingly joined at the hip to thwart the liberal world order and the United States leadership be that as it may of that order. Sadly, Russian political war against the United States and its principal allies just short of acts of war is a trend that is not going away any time soon as Australia has learned. The fact that the Russians and Chinese carry out joint naval exercises on scenarios around the Chinese seizure of Taiwan, control of the South China Sea, blockading the Korean Peninsula and tackling Japan are a real matter of concern to the United States and its Western Pacific allies. Russian provocations such as strategic aviation patrols and near collisions at sea are in keeping with its tactics in protecting what the Kremlin views as vital interests in Europe where they have used similar tactics in the Baltic region.

As we know, Russia is not afraid to use force in its near abroad however that is defined by President Putin. On their own, Russia and China, present serious threats to a target state’s national security. Russia and China acting in a concerted manner presents a dangerous scenario for global security and not just Asia and the Western Pacific.

A Russian China alliance leads to the nightmare scenario for Western Security where Russia seizes the Baltic States and or Ukraine and China move to seize Taiwan at the same time. Western Europe is incapable of defending itself and Central Europe without American power and the same could be said for the United States allies in the Western Pacific, particularly Taiwan.

President Xi of China last year, called for the “unavoidable” reunification with Taiwan starting this year and he set an end date of 2050 where he warned that “we make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means.” President Putin said in a similar sinister speech before the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2014 that it was his goal to return to the territories lost in the collapse of the Soviet Union and to re-establish that empire. Drawing one last time from Thucydides on Russia and China, “I dread our own mistakes more than the enemy's intentions.”

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Joe Varner is a former Director of Policy to Canada's Minister of Defence and a Fellow of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. Image credit: Office of the President of Russia.

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