Does COVID-19 and potential US presidential transition place Taiwan in jeopardy
Does COVID-19 and potential US presidential transition place Taiwan in jeopardy
WRITTEN BY JOE VARNER
23 October 2020
With the ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 upon the US and its key allies and a controversial and divisive Presidential election near its end, there is a danger that China will act against what it considers a rebel province (Taiwan) during the potential transition period in Washington.
Should Donald Trump win, this point would be moot, but if there was a potential transition of power to former Vice President Joe Biden or a debate about the transfer of power in Washington, then China might have a time-sensitive opportunity to act in the resulting confusion to settle its differences with Taipei. China’s strategic partner, Russia, and its moves to push for further territorial gains in Ukraine or a forced merger with Belarus in Central Europe would further complicate a Western response to Beijing’s potential action against Taiwan in the South Pacific. Whether Beijing moves to coerce a merger with Taipei or uses direct force to seize the island state is an open question now and into the future, but we know Beijing likes to test a new American President early in their mandate.
Reunification — or not.
China has long held that Taiwan is a renegade province and that its reunification with the mainland is a key national security interest and objective of the Communist state. Beijing has maintained that the reunification as with all lost territories could come through peace or the use of force but that it is inevitable. President Xi Jinping has said that reunification would start this year and be completed by the mid part of this century. China’s recent White Paper on Defence warned that ‘To solve the Taiwan question and achieve complete reunification of the country is in the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and essential to realising national rejuvenation’. The document went further to caution that, ‘China… will never allow the secession of any part of its territory by anyone, any organisation or any political party by any means at any time. We make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures’.
A bipartisan statement of support for Taiwan by President Trump and Democratic candidate for President Joe Biden cautioning Beijing about aggression and adventure would be a credible sign of national resolve and that President Xi Jinping’s window for action is closed no matter who is in power at the White House.
Recently, in response to a US plan to supply Taipei with three advanced weapons systems, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), President Xi on a tour of military installations including a Chinese PLA Marine base, warned, that the Chinese military must be prepared for war. His warning was echoed by China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, who called on the US to "immediately cancel any arms sales plans to Taiwan" and cut all "US-Taiwan military ties". China now has the world’s largest navy of some 350 warships and is operating two aircraft carriers of limited capability in the region which routinely threaten Taiwan and its neighbours.
The Chinese Communist Party also has plans to double its nuclear arsenal over the next decade. In mid-September, China sortied as many as 40 aircraft at a time across the median line towards Taiwan in a show of force. China’s military has stepped up activity around the Taiwan-controlled but China-claimed Pratas Islands and Kong Hong has closed its airspace to Taiwan to cut the islands off from Taiwanese flights. The Pratas Islands are about 445 kilometres from Kaohsiung, and about 300 kilometres from mainland China but reside in Hong Kong airspace. Much of this could be put down to increased Chinese aggressive behaviour in the wake of the pandemic, posturing and just plain old fashioned sabre rattling, though there are further indicators that China may have other plans.
Taiwan faces an increasingly militarised China
Beijing has announced that it has forward deployed nuclear-capable DF-17 hypersonic Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM) in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces opposite Taiwan and replaced older DF-11 and DF-15 missile systems meant to cower Taipei and deter outside intervention by the US and its allies. Missile and Marine bases in Fujian and Guangdong provinces have been increased in both size and capability, some almost doubling in their footprint. China has also released photographs of its H-6N strategic bomber armed with what appears to be it's experimental CH-AS-X-13 Air-Launched Ballistic Missile (ALBM) which is believed to be a very accurate anti-ship missile and to which there is no real defence.
The anti-ship missile has a range of 3,500-4,500 kilometres and is believed capable of reaching speeds of more than Mach 5. China has deployed the Russian S-400 air defence system to the Taiwan Strait area and is able to engage Taiwanese aircraft some 600 kilometres away from the mainland. There are 20 PLA Air Force brigades in the region and 10 of 13 Marine Brigade units (though their state of readiness for offensive operations is not clear). President Xi took the Communist Party’s senior leadership to commemorate Chinese intervention in the Korean War and military action against the US would signal it is prepared to take on the West again. Chinese rhetoric in the coming days could be very telling if it hardens on war with the US. For now, Chinese language and media are pointed, but it does not have the edge to push Beijing’s nationalist elements to signal a coming war, though that could change — rapidly.
Taiwan should not be considered a pushover
In modern war, the sheer number of platforms and personnel alone do not always tell the tale, and there are many factors that result in victory or defeat. Taiwan, not to mention the US and its allies are not pushovers and it must be noted that Taiwan’s security and independence is as linked to Japan’s security as Japan’s is coupled to that of the US. While China has improved its logistics capability, increased the ability to conduct joint operations, and has some power projection capability in its naval and air force it is far from assured a successful invasion of Taiwan’s well-defended and rugged coastal areas. Taiwan’s military is a large active force of some 163,000 across all services and a 1,657,000 reserve to match its regular military forces. Both active and reserve forces are well-trained, generally well-equipped and exercise regularly. The air force is built around modernised F-16 fighter aircraft and it has a modest older navy of 26 surface combatants and four old conventional powered patrol submarines. To date, Taipei has concentrated its acquisition on deterrence of China in the air and coastal defence with anti-ship cruise missiles and longer-range missiles geared to land attack and striking China’s coastal areas in wartime. Taiwan’s ‘Achilles heel’ is its dependence largely on the US for modern weapons to match or outmatch the PLA and US military and allied support in a war.
So, even if China finds a window to act during this second wave of COVID-19 or during a transition of power (in Washington) it is far from assured a military victory over Taipei. Chinese options for offensive operations might (more realistically) include hybrid warfare, naval blockade, conventional invasion, or missile attacks to coerce the Taiwanese government toward reunification. It is incumbent on the US and its allies to ensure things do not reach the point where an adventurist Beijing decide to ‘roll the dice’ and move on Taiwan. Taiwan’s security is key to the US and its Pacific allies and expedited weapon sales, joint exercises, freedom of navigation exercises, and the forward deployment of US attack submarines and other units and weapon systems go a long-way to complicating Chinese options to use force even in a transition of power or worst case a political power struggle in a divisive non-conclusive election. Taiwan could announce and should conduct large military exercises to demonstrate its readiness and power including a major call on its reserve forces.
On a final note, a bipartisan statement of support for Taiwan by President Trump and Democratic candidate for President Joe Biden cautioning Beijing about aggression and adventure would be a credible sign of national resolve and that President Xi Jinping’s window for action is closed no matter who is in power at the White House.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Joe Varner is a former Director of Policy to Canada's Minister of Defence and an Adjunct Scholar at West Point's Modern War Institute. Image Credit: Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan)/Flickr.