COVID-19: China's adventurism with Taiwan and the South China Sea
COVID-19: China's adventurism with Taiwan and the South China Sea
WRITTEN BY MANSHEETAL SINGH AND MEGHA GUPTA
28 May 2020
In a recent post, the editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times newspaper, commented “China needs to expand the number of its nuclear warheads to 1,000 in a relatively short time and procure at least 100 DF 41 strategic missiles.” This came amid reports that China may have conducted low yield nuclear tests at the Lop Nor proving range last year. Alongside the assertive rhetoric on nuclear warheads, China has also managed to alarm its immediate neighbors and littoral states through recent incursions in the South China Sea, thereby putting the Western Pacific on a high state of alert amid the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.
In the wake of the pandemic, Taiwan in particular has grown increasingly concerned regarding Beijing’s rising direct military involvement in the region, aggressive intrusions into their airspace and perpetual display of power through military drills in the Taiwan Strait. Such activities may be well below the threshold of an all-out war, but are extending the percieved reach of China’s military dominance, mimicking the approach Beijing has adopted to establish a virtual control over the wrangled South China Sea. In response to Beijing’s recent actions China must be face a united front by likemineded states in the Indo Pacific region.
China and Taiwan: A clash of the dragons
As the world increasingly comes to terms with China’s initial botching of the COVID-19 crisis and its overall obscurity about the virus outbreak, Taiwan has taken this opportunity to assert its de-facto independence by seeking to erode and sabotage Beijing’s decade long attempts at isolating the self-governing democratic island, that China professes as its own. With its extraordinary performance in containing the virus spread so far, as well as soft power diplomacy through the delivery of medical supplies to coronavirus stricken nations, Taiwan is attributing to itself the role of an alternative Chinese model, based on democratic and liberal norms, that serves to undermine the Communist Party on the mainland.
China’s actions in the South China Sea may seem innocuous, but they have been recognised regionally as part of a long term “salami-slicing” strategy employed by Beijing in maritime spaces and beyond, where its many small actions which do not trigger large scale reactions eventually add up to a crucial strategic transformation.
The Taiwanese model to curb the spread of the virus and its increasing cooperation with democratic nations seeking its assistance to thwart the escalation of virus spread is winning acclaim across the world. Contrarily, China’s antagonistic and authoritarian response to COVID-19 has attracted criticism from several nations who have now been transformed into coronavirus hotspots. Overwhelmed nations are therefore praising Taiwan for its successful handling of the pandemic and for sharing their experiences and strategies with them. This has drawn support from the international community where Taiwan’s inclusion in the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, has become a key issue for the United States. Likewise many countries in Western Europe are also recalibrating their Taiwan policy.
The move for Taiwan’s rehabilitation and support for it at the WHO was not well received by the Communist Party leadership in Beijing. They claim that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) under President Tsai Ing-wen is maneuvering under the pretext of COVID-19 to “engage in political manipulation hyping-up the issue to extract advantage and seek ‘independence’, rather than caring about the health and welfare of the people in Taiwan.” Fearing Taipei’s corrosive influence, China has recently employed its warplanes to violate Taiwan’s airspace with an aim to flex its muscles and intimidate the little island nation. More recently, China sent its Liaoning aircraft carrier leading a six-vessel strike group past Taiwan and Japan into the South China Sea. In January as well, a Chinese military flotilla, headed by the newer aircraft carrier Shandong, passed through the straits of Taiwan in an overt show of force and power.
The rising recognition of Taiwan and its progressive ability to handle COVID-19 has won Taipei the diplomatic acclaim it has been eyeing for decades. This does not sit well with the nationalist forces unleashed by President Xi Jinping on the mainland. Within popular media and in online forums nationalists are pressurizing the Beijing government to ‘invade’ and ‘annex’ the Taiwa by force as the world remains consumed by the pandemic crisis. Even the United States, an unofficial security net provider to Taiwan, faces viral outbreaks gripping its naval vessels in the South China Sea, positioned to counter Chinese forces from attacking Taiwan. Unfortunately, this has left Taiwan with its principal security guarantor distracted that gives China the best opportunity to enforce through might its ‘One China Policy’.
South China Sea turning into a Chinese quagmire
China’s aggresive behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic is not just limited to Taiwan, but expands across almost all the littoral states in the South China Sea. Less than a month ago, China sank a Vietnamese fishing boat - with a crew of eight on board - near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South Sea. In addition, two other Vietnamese fishing boats were detained for an attempt at rescuing eight fishermen. Beijing has maintained a robust maritime presence in the South China Sea, driving away non- Chinese fishing boats. This might seem innocuous but has been recognised regionally as part of a long term “salami-slicing” strategy employed by Beijing in the maritime spaces, where its many small actions which do not trigger large scale reactions will eventually add up to a crucial strategic transformation.
Even more so now than ever, when there is a power vacuum created due to the COVID-19 crisis, Beijing is seizing the opportunity to make several key advancements in international waters. In late March, when the COVID-19 crisis was drawing in all attention, the Chinese launched two new research stations at Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef, both of which host large facilities atop artificial islands. Maritime experts have alleged it to be a part of China’s exploitative plans of the deep sea environment. As per the 2016 Arbitral ruling, these activities by China are illegal and their claims over the artificial islands being a part of their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) are unlawful.
Furthermore, of late, China has been pushing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members to approve a code of conduct prohibiting military operations by outsiders (or rivals) such as Japan, U.S. and Australia. Doctor Tim Huxley, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in an interview commented “There’s a long-term competition under way and it has naval, paramilitary, economic, legal and strategic dimensions, and it’s important that ASEAN countries work together to protect and promote their interests there.”
A way forward
It is without saying that China did very little to prevent the Wuhan outbreak from morphing into a global pandemic. Beijing’s attempt to coverup COVID-19 followed by inaction in sharing information with relevant authorities is reflected in the health and economic crisis arising throughout the world. While asking China to be held to account may sound impossible, the international community can adopt a different strategy to hold China accountable. The first and foremost action that can help deter China’s rogue behavior could be to re-calibrate the ‘One China Policy’ and emancipate Taiwan from Beijing under a programme intended to give the responsible, democratic island some level of diplomatic recognition.
Just like the other multilateral fora, the Quad, grew out of the 2004 Indian Tsunami crisis, similarly, post the COVID-19 virus outbreak, there should be an emergence of a robust strategic force to contest China’s excessive claims over the international waters. Smaller Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and Vietnam have been the victims of Chinese aggression. Hence, larger players like Japan, US, Australia, and India must step in and take a lead in protecting international norms such as freedom of navigation. In a recent interaction between the Quad countries, three additional countries - New Zealand, Vietnam, and South Korea- participated, hinting towards a “Quad plus” grouping. Even though these governments did not state it out loud, there is a scope for a possible expansion, which should not be just limited to these additional countries.
Other than the international community, the Southeast Asian nations caught in the fishnet of Belt and Road investments must act responsibly alone and ensure that they do not further involve themselves in any future debt ladden schemes offered by China. Once they are fully enmeshed in the trap of Beijing, they will not be able to have any hold over the disputed reefs and waters with the Communist Party. To ensure their full independence in the South China Sea and in the region, they must reduce their economic reliance on Beijing and look for alternate emerging markets like South Korea, Japan and India.
Lastly, the Indo-Pacific requires an urgent need for a coordinated strategy to mute China’s swaying strategies in the region. Leadership for this should come through mooting a proposed Indo - Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO). IPTO must be patterned on the lines of NATO which has been a successful and effective association even after the disintegration of the USSR. Only through an alliance like this can we hope to avert further security turbulences inflicted by China in the Indo Pacific region.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Megha Gupta is the Director of the South Asia Programme at The International Scholar (ITS) and a Researcher at Observer Research Foundation.
Mansheetal Singh is a Staff Contributor to the MENA and South Asia Programme at The International Scholar. He holds a fellowship from The Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy. Image credit: US Pacific Fleet/Flickr.