Chinese space debris spells trouble for the South China Sea
Chinese space debris spells trouble for the South China Sea
WRITTEN BY JAY L BATONGBACAL
20 December 2022
Simmering tensions between the Philippines and China flared up again on 20 November 2022 due to fallen Chinese space junk. The Philippine Navy issued a statement that an object was spotted floating near Thitu (Pag-asa) Island in the morning, prompting the island commander to send a small team on a rubber boat to retrieve it. As they towed it back, a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel approached and blocked their course twice, then deployed its own rubber boat to forcefully retrieve the object by cutting the tow line. The object reportedly resembled rocket debris previously found in other parts of the Philippines, possibly from the Long March 7 that launched the Tianzhou-5 cargo resupply mission to the Tiangong Space Station just over a week prior.
The fact that a statement was released mere hours after the incident — from Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, the commander of the Philippine forces in the hotly contested West Philippine Sea region, no less — indicates the seriousness of the event. The Chinese Embassy in Manila was only able to respond late in the evening the following day and claimed that the statement was “inconsistent with facts”, that there was no blocking of the Philippine vessel nor forceful retrieval of the object, and that a “friendly consultation” was carried out, and ended with an expression of gratitude once the object was handed over. This was tactfully negated by Philippine President Marcos Jr and the Department of Foreign Affairs issued a note verbale asking Beijing to clarify the incident in relation to the discrepancy between their respective statements. Although the issue was soon overshadowed by the official visit of US Vice President Kamala Harris that same week, it has come to the fore again with the release of a video of the actual incident in the Philippine Senate.
The episode highlights another source of diplomatic irritation between China and its Southeast Asian neighbours. Since orbital missions began launching from the Wenchang Space Launch Centre on Hainan Island in 2016, the risk of space debris raining down on the South China Sea (SCS) and the territories of the littoral states has increased. Although the discovery of such debris in previous instances elsewhere did not attract much attention, this particular incident appears to have finally struck a chord.
Chinese launch site creates more risks for Southeast Asia
The Hainan site was designed especially for China’s largest and most powerful rockets to launch the most ambitious space missions, such as the Chang’e lunar exploration vehicle, the Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter and rover, and the Tiangong space station. Its favourable location also makes it ideal for commercial launch operations, since China is also encouraging private sector investment alongside its publicly funded programs.
While China’s accomplishments as a new space power are truly impressive, its emerging record for safety and responsibility leaves very much to be desired.
The problem, however, is that it also places the SCS and parts of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei immediately down-range of any launch. Whether planned or by accident, each launch will drop discarded rocket stages or parts within a large area in and around this region. The risk of damage or injury from rocket launches is highest during the initial launch and boost phases, from the time the rocket ignites until it slings its payload into a stable orbit. Spent boosters and discarded casings can come crashing down fully intact, causing serious damage or injury to the very unlucky. In some cases, they still contain fuel which can cause them to explode.
Sometimes, the dangerous period lasts longer when large booster rockets briefly reach a low orbit, in which case the debris can take several days before finally falling. In March 2020, Chinese rocket debris rained down on a village in Côte d’Ivoire almost a week after its launch. The terminal phase of Chinese rockets launched at Wenchang can still reach Southeast Asia after circling the globe, as seen in August 2022 when parts of a Long March rocket crashed somewhere in the Sulu Sea.
Admittedly, the chance that anyone on the surface of the Earth would suffer injury or damage from a falling space object is about 1 in 10,000. A rocket’s trajectory normally takes it over water 80 per cent of the time, and when it is over land, only 20 per cent of the terrain is usually occupied by human settlements. But the increasing use of space, ubiquity of satellite-based services, frequency of launches, and diversification of launch vehicles are prompting a recalculation of these odds. A new study anticipates that in the next decade, the chances of an incident could increase to 1 in 10, and the risks are higher for countries along the equator, like those in Southeast Asia.
Avoiding responsibility as a launching state
For decades now, other launching states like the US and the EU have taken measures to ensure the controlled descent of their rocket boosters into unpopulated areas, further minimising the already low risks of damage or injury. China does not follow this practice, and bristles when criticised for its refusal to act responsibly and transparently with its launches. China insists that the risks are low, and says that it will inform the public in “a timely manner” when the situation requires. But it is nearly impossible to determine the point of impact of any uncontrolled rocket debris, so it is extremely doubtful that anyone can be warned of a potential danger in time.
The incident with the Philippines last month does not bode well for any states suffering damages or injuries from China’s space program in the future. The way the CCG retrieved the debris, lacking any sense of diplomacy and respect, contrasts very sharply with the habits of consultation and cooperation that China supposedly wants in the SCS.
The right of the Filipino team to recover the object floating in the water, whether out of caution or curiosity, is recognised under the principles of international law relating to maritime salvage. This practice, based on long-standing customs, and later evolved through treaties, applies to ships and property at sea and is intended to preserve property rights, discourage theft, and restore rescued property to their owners. The objectives are promoted through the assurance of rewards for the salvor’s troubles and risks in doing so.
The Filipinos’ action could therefore not be faulted; Chinese rocket parts previously recovered from the sea in other parts of the Philippines, such as Mindoro, Palawan, and Samar, could not be identified until after they were brought ashore. China did not confirm its ownership even after the debris was recovered and examined, and from all accounts, it has never acknowledged nor even bothered to ask for them back. Its silence is a telling sign of a reluctance to accept accountability, similar to that of polluters concealing their offensive acts.
While Outer Space Law recognises that China, as a launching state, retains ownership of its space objects even after they have fallen back to Earth, its rights do not include a unilateral and forceful right of recovery from a third party. In fact, in cases where a space object is found by a third state, the launching state is obliged to request assistance from the finding state and to bear the expenses of recovery which implies an obligation to compensate for the latter’s troubles. China therefore cannot legally justify its forceful retrieval of the debris already being towed by Philippine personnel. This perhaps explains Beijing’s disingenuous and belated explanation nearly two days later, claiming that it held friendly consultations and expressed gratitude for the retrieval.
China’s failure to act responsibly for its space activities adds to the problems in the SCS. Aside from military uses and resource exploitation, China apparently also wishes to use the SCS as a dumping ground for its space garbage, even though it is an extremely busy area of international commerce and surrounded by populous Southeast Asian states. Beijing is also disregarding the increased risks this behaviour creates for other littoral states.
Southeast Asian states would be well advised to sign and ratify the Outer Space Treaties, particularly the Convention on the International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects, to ensure that China does not avoid accountability arising from potential damage and injury that may be inflicted by its space activities on their territories at sea and on land. The Liability Convention establishes strict liability on the part of the launching state and provides specific procedures for securing compensation. Southeast Asian states should also demand to be treated with the dignity and respect all states are entitled to, not as a wastebasket for rocket debris. While China’s accomplishments as a new space power are truly impressive, its emerging record for safety and responsibility leaves very much to be desired.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Jay L Batongbacal is a lawyer and professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law, holding a Master of Marine Management and a Doctorate in the Science of Law. He has long specialised in maritime affairs and the Law of the Sea but is expanding his research interests to Outer Space Law and the Law of Armed Conflict at Sea. He is presently completing a research fellowship as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the US Naval War College. Image credit: Wikimedia.