China’s role in the Serbian 2022 elections campaign

23 February 2022

China is likely to play a crucial role in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential election campaigns in Serbia, not only for the ruling Progressive Party led by Aleksandar Vučić but also for the opposition. The two countries’ increasing cooperation over the past decade has turned China into one of Serbia’s most important partners, most notably through joint infrastructure projects, a rising level of investment, and growing political relations.

The campaigns for the 4 April elections will define the Serbian public’s image of China in one of two ways: either as a beneficial partner boosting Serbian economic development or as a malevolent entity seeking to exploit mines, harm nature, and gain political leverage. The election results will define the next phase of political relations: if the current government under President Vučić remains in power, we will see a further deepening of cooperation. However, if the opposition wins, the partnership with China will likely deteriorate.

The Big Brother — how the ruling party can use China to sustain power

On 5 February, in the aftermath of the Winter Olympic Games opening ceremony, Vučić met with Xi Jinping in Beijing. The two leaders used the opportunity to reiterate their countries’ ''iron-clad friendship'' and announce new joint infrastructure projects and Chinese investments in Serbia. Both parties showed an interest in signing a mutual free trade agreement, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. It is no surprise that these were the principal topics of discussion between the two presidents.

Environmental consequences, rising levels of public debt, and labour treatment concerns must be addressed in accordance with the domestic legislative framework. If not, deepening relations with China could derail Serbia from the path of European integration.

China has been one of Serbia's most important economic partners in the last decade. Since 2010, the level of foreign direct investment from China to Serbia has surpassed EUR 3 billion, and both sides have agreed on more than EUR 8 billion worth of infrastructure projects. The influx of Chinese capital has significantly contributed to the narrative of economic development pushed by Serbian ruling political elites. The level of foreign trade exchange has been increasing constantly over the past decade, which the government has used as a tool to present China as a potential market for Serbian businesses and the overall economy.

Aside from economic benefits, Belgrade has presented Beijing as a major partner in the fight against COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic in 2020. China’s ‘’mask diplomacy’’, along with its ‘’vaccine diplomacy’’, significantly impacted the Serbian population’s overall perspective of China. In their statements, political leaders have presented China as the only country able to help Serbia in its fight against the virus and referred to Xi Jinping as a “friend” and “brother” of the Serbian people.

The ruling political leaders have utilised these narratives, as well as Chinese-funded infrastructure development, for their political gain. Along with new highways and railroads, Chinese companies have also invested in old socialist factories in Serbia, keeping them alive and preserving the employment of more than 10,000 workers in the cases of the Bor copper mines and Smederevo steel mill. The positive representation of China as a friendly country is additionally boosted by the Serbian mainstream pro-governmental media, which portrays the projects as successes of Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party.

Relations with China have become a vehicle for Serbia’s ruling elites to advance politically. Their election campaign will exploit the idea of economic prosperity facilitated by them. Two months before the election, campaign videos feature highways built by Chinese enterprises and expressions of gratitude for the partnership with China. It can only be assumed that such promotion will reach an even higher level closer to the voting date.

Criticism of China can be the opposition’s silver bullet

While the ruling majority’s presentation of the Chinese presence in the country focuses on promoting joint projects, the real situation is not as positive. Local activists and opposition politicians have raised concerns over Chinese companies’ impact on the environment and their workers’ labour conditions. The opposition has also raised the issue of the Serbian government’s high level of loans from Chinese banks. Serbia has reached agreements over projects worth more than EUR 8 billion that will be implemented in cooperation with China. The opposition leaders are pointing out that this can lead to a considerable amount of public debt, and potentially a debt trap.

Environmental issues have been the main motive behind the recent massive protests across Serbia. Although Chinese companies were not the main target of the demonstrators on the national level, local activists have been quite vocal on the issue. Local movements in the cities of Bor, Smederevo, and Zrenjanin have pointed out that factories under Chinese management are disregarding environmental standards and contributing to the overall level of environmental harm. In January 2021, European parliament representatives expressed concerns that Chinese-owned companies in Serbia are contributing to air and land pollution. Shortly thereafter, one of Serbia’s leading opposition parties — the Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) led by former Belgrade Mayor, Dragan Djilas — made a similar statement.

The SSP has been the most vocal opposition party in criticising cooperation with China in the past. Its leader has stated that he does not want Serbia to become a “Chinese colony”. At the very beginning of the election campaign, the head of the party’s economic board Slobodan Nikezić criticised the government’s announcement of the free trade agreement with China, stating that Serbia already owed Beijing too much and that it would become a client state if it continued to do business this way.

The case of the Linglong vehicle tire factory has been another point of criticism for local movements and political parties. In November 2021, concerns regarding Vietnamese workers' abuse at the tire factory grabbed headlines and showed that, for the ruling coalition, economic benefits from foreign investors trump any other value, including labour rights. Opposition parties took this as a chance to criticise the doings of the Chinese vehicle tire factory and the government’s lack of response after the issue was picked-up by independent media representatives and civil society organisations.

The opposition can use the environmental damage, high level of debt, and violation of labour rights as significant tools against the ruling coalition in the pre-election campaigns. But doing so also has its limitations and can potentially backfire. China has a dominantly positive image among the wider Serbian population. Public opinion polls show that more than 70 per cent of Serbian citizens regard Beijing as a positive and valuable partner. Whether it is a good idea for a party to point its criticism towards an actor with such a good image among the general population is questionable. A second limitation lies in the fact that certain leaders within the opposition also have close connections with Chinese actors.

Former president of Serbia and current leader of the Social Democratic Party, Boris Tadić, is currently the Co-Chairman of the Board and President of TOJOY Eastern Europe, a consulting firm that works on improving the position of Chinese companies in this part of Europe. Vuk Jeremić, President of the Peoples Party, was reported to have close connections with the United Front, an institution within the Chinese Communist Party that facilitates the work of pro-Chinese actors around the world. Finally, there is a question of how much opposition leaders want to criticise China and Chinese actors in Serbia, keeping in mind that due to the numerous loan contracts and ongoing infrastructure projects, they may have to cooperate with them in the future.

China’s passive but important role

Given this context, China plays a passive but significant role in the upcoming Serbian election. Passive because no direct Chinese interference in the campaign is expected, but significant as both the ruling coalition and opposition parties can and probably will use Beijing as a tool. On the side of Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party, some of their most significant achievements in the recent past have been completed with Chinese help. For the opposition, the biggest opportunities for criticism come from the consequences of China’s activities in Serbia. Therefore, it will be of utmost significance to see whether China takes a more active role in the election campaign by openly supporting the ruling coalition, or if Beijing will remain a partner keeping its distance from domestic politics in Serbia.

Whoever wins the elections, the current level of cooperation and joint long-term projects means that they will have to continue cooperating with China. The crucial question is what the consequences will be. Even though the partnership brings undisputed benefits to Serbia, those benefits may come with a high price if the future government does not address the concerns raised by the current opposition. Environmental consequences, rising levels of public debt, and labour treatment concerns must be addressed in accordance with the domestic legislative framework. If not, deepening relations with China could derail Serbia from the path of European integration.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Stefan Vladisavljev is a Program Coordinator at the Foundation BFPE and a member of the organisation team of the Belgrade Security Forum. He is also part of the China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE) network. He is based in Belgrade and focuses on the rising Chinese presence and influence in Serbia and the Western Balkans. Image credit: Unsplash/Ivan Aleksic.